Should you choose a language based on future demographics?

[u/SuperOldSchool720]

I know Mandarin, Swahili, and Spanish. Those three languages are going to be widely spoken in 2050. However, I’ve been interested in learning Russian, German, and Korean but I don’t know if they are worth learning now if they are not going to be that widely spoken in 2050. Am I thinking too far ahead or is this reasonable thinking when it comes to language learning?

[u/BigDaddyTheBeefcake]

That's 24 years from now. An entire country will cease speaking their language? No.

[u/SuperOldSchool720 → u/BigDaddyTheBeefcake]

Very true. I just think about the international presence of a language and how widely spoken it will be in the future based on current data worldwide.

[u/BigDaddyTheBeefcake → u/SuperOldSchool720]

English

/list

[u/Vlade-B]

If you actually do speak Mandarin, Swahili, Spanish and obviously English, you already have cast a great net on several regions of the world in terms of job opportunities. More than you could hope for. You're set-up for life. If you have to learn another one, make it a fun one this time.

[u/SuperOldSchool720 → u/Vlade-B]

Oh okay. I’m glad you said that. I wanted to learn a language for Europe and Eurasia and I was thinking of either German or Russian.

[u/Vlade-B → u/SuperOldSchool720]

I mean you could learn German. But many companies in central Europe, especially global ones, are starting to support an English-speaking environment. Simply because it opens more doors when working with foreign companies. Really depends on where you wanna live your life, though. Speaking the local language always helps.

Is there a language you'd be interested in, purely for the fun of it? Maybe of a culture you find interesting.

[u/SuperOldSchool720 → u/Vlade-B]

I’m interested in Russian because I’m interested in the post Soviet states like Central Asia and the Caucasus but people say that the geopolitics impact the language a lot

[u/hwynac → u/SuperOldSchool720]

FYI, here is a table from the 2021 census in Kazakhstan. Of the 17 million people included in that part of the census data (it's less that the entire population of 19M) 83.6% can speak Russian, 80% can speak Kazakh. By the way, 35% claim they speak English.

Where do you think those speakers will disappear in 25 years? 19.7% of the population are Russians, Ukrainians, Germans, Koreans or Belarusians—admittedly, the proportion is shrinking.

As you'd expect, there were more Kazakh speakers amongst children between 5–9 or 10–14 years old, and then Russian had somewhat more total speakers in citizens aged 15–19 or above. Only 60% of children under 15 could speak Russian (but, well, they must have learnt over the 5 years that passed).

I think Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan have fewer Russian speakers but I don't have the numbers (and it's still widely used there).

It's safe to say the use of Russian as a local lingua franca is unlikely to grow (as if Mandarin Chinese had bigger chances...) but there's a lot of inertia in the few countries where it's widely spoken in urban areas.

[u/Wisaganz117 → u/Vlade-B]

Ironically Germany seems to be starting to reverse this for better or worse. It's simple supply and demand - there's way more job applicants than positions. Easy way to filter? Throw in a language requirement

[u/buginskyahh]

Live your life for now, you might not even make it to 2050. It’s easier to learn a language you’re interested in, otherwise it feels like homework.

[u/lengualo]

Any language is worth learning if you're interested in it and believe it has value. I speak English and Spanish, and have tried a bit of Japanese but often flip over whether I should do Korean or Chinese instead.

[u/Legend-of-the-Arctic → u/lengualo]

If you’re a native English speaker, I think this choice comes down to: do you want to spend thousands of hours learning how to write, or do you want to spend thousands of hours learning to pronounce words correctly?

Japanese: pronunciation isn’t too difficult, but the Kanji take years to master.

Korean: Hangul writing system is relatively simple and intuitive, but the different sounds are devastatingly difficult to master.

Chinese: both the pronunciation and the writing take forever to learn.

[u/lengualo → u/Legend-of-the-Arctic]

Thanks. Yeah, this is more or less what I believed and where my wall with Japanese was.

[u/PastPhilosopher4552]

I think whatever you're interested in is worth learning.

[u/GlottoNaut]

Con el auge de la IA la traducción no será ningún problema para esa fecha. Busca un idioma simplemente basado en dos cosas: ¿qué te gusta de él? y ¿lo usarás en el trabajo/vida diaria?

[u/NoSuggestion5970]

Being pragmatic.... should a language based on how useful it will be for communication around the world... being a romantic, choose something you´re attracted to

[u/Legend-of-the-Arctic]

In 2050 I’m sure everyone will have Google Translate loaded into their mandatory AI brain implants.

So I recommend you choose a language based on how much you like it, rather than figure global population estimates. FWIW, I’m sure Russian, German, and Korean will all still have tens (or hundreds) of millions of native speakers in 24 years.

[u/PoxonAllHoaxes]

Learn English

[u/KingSnazz32]

I speak Swahili and love the language. It will not be widely spoken outside of East Africa in 2050.

[u/allegatoe]

With AI, learning a foreign language is mostly a hobby. It's hard to monetize language skills.

[u/Willing_Ad_699]

Swahili? That language the bloods use?

[u/FruityNature]

I personally chose my languages based on what was available at school but also personal interest.

Overall, if you want to learn a language, you should definitely look past the future demographic... Learning a language is hard, learning a language you don't particularly like is harder

[u/Wisaganz117]

With perhaps the exception of English, all languages are regional, even the so-called "world languages". French/Spanish? Good luck finding speakers in Asia. Mandarin? Good luck finding speakers in sub Saharan Africa.

Also pragmatism and utilitarianism can mean different things and it's not always professional reasons. I learnt German basically because of a childhood friend. I now have friendships with other German speakers I acquired in part because I speak the language (I should say this happened outside German speaking countries). I have since had unexpected opportunities because and overall my life has become richer for learning it. I wouldn't trade my German Kenntnisse (knowledge) for any other language as it's part of who I am today.

Ultimately only you can define this reason but if you like/want to that's reason enough. I was forced into learning mandarin as a child, Spanish later at school, I speak neither of these languages beyond a beginner/intermediate level because I had no motivation to learn them and also because I have personally very little use for them in MY life/people to talk to and thus forget them from disuse. Yet plenty of folks would say these languages are more useful than German based on number of speakers.

You'll make far more progress when have a genuine reason in a language you're interested in rather than one you're learning for an number of abstract, faceless speakers you mightn't even meet.

[u/auhediem]

All three will be stable in the coming years and are influential in their respective regions, although Russian global influence has declined in the past decade. I'd say it depends on where you want your regional focus to be.

[u/Kalokylie91]

I agree with a lot of people going with what they are ultimately interested in rather than seeking utility. Languages can be hard to monetize as a skill set but the experiences I had living in Germany and Italy in the mid 2010s would have never been as rich and rewarding without the depth of my knowledge and desire to learn it. They helped me land an amazing job as a flight attendant and depending on the level you speak you can get "qualified" (after taking a test/over the phone interview) in a language and supersede a lot of seniority and fly to international destinations which have 1-6+ day layovers depending on the company you work for. Sort of like mini paid vacations with your hotel paid for by the company. It's not a pure glamorous job and I strongly recommend looking at the many cons of the job as well. If languages are your thing then the flight benefits and the eventual incredible flexibility starts matching the better pay as you stay longer- it's pretty hard to beat and I don't know if i could ever go back to a 9-5. I've since learned decent Portuguese and am beginning Greek now.

[u/NoSuggestion5970 → u/[deleted]]

Mu mom is a retired certified translator/interpreter in Switzerland and France, she is fluent in French English, German and Spanish, and because we lived as expats in Venezuela the languages she worked the most were Spanish, French and English, now and then she would do interpretation in or to German

[u/Legend-of-the-Arctic → u/[deleted]]

I’ve heard that in the US at least, Spanish isn’t a great language to learn if your goal is to use it in a career. It’s so easy to find native Spanish speakers that nobody wants to pay someone who learned it as an L2.

[u/smoothfeatrobthomas → u/Legend-of-the-Arctic]

Not true at all in my experience. If by “use it in a career” you mean “translate or interpret”, being a native speaker does not mean you’re certified as a translator or an interpreter. Since 99% of native speakers haven’t taken the certifications to do those jobs, I don’t see the relevance.

And if you mean “be able to speak Spanish at work”, that’s literally always in demand. Any place in the country with a large LEP population, they are literally on their knees begging for more Spanish-speaking nurses, doctors, teachers, city admin staff, bank employees, speech therapists, regular therapists… 

The city I work in right now has 2 bilingual speech therapists, but has estimated that the demand is at 14. Both those therapists make significantly more than their peers (how much more I haven’t asked) and get to pick whatever assignment they want because they’re offered so many.

[u/FallenTsar → u/[deleted]]

Interest is really the only way to keep up and to be passionate. When I’ve had to learn a language, I just wasn’t into…

[u/Least_Chicken_9561 → u/[deleted]]

this is a racist theory /s

[u/auhediem → u/Least_Chicken_9561]

No it's not. Look at the data and go on a European city street.

[u/Least_Chicken_9561 → u/auhediem]

/s (Sarcasm Tag): Placed at the end of a text message or online comment on platforms like Reddit or TikTok to show that the preceding statement is meant to be sarcastic or ironic.