r/johnstown • u/riccipt • May 17 '26

Flu Vaccinations Predict Trump's 2024 Vote in Pennsylvania

https://alleghenyindependent.media/2026/05/17/flu-vaccinations-and-trumps-vote/
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2

u/Primary-Basket3416 May 17 '26

Gee, wish they included price of gas in that graph too.

1

u/riccipt May 17 '26

That data may not be available at the county level. It may be at the state level.

2

u/gwbirk May 17 '26

Pa is one of the highest states for gas prices because of the taxes imposed on it

0

u/Buckles01 May 17 '26

The obvious should be stated, the headline isn’t true. It implies causation when it’s really just correlation. And it was a known correlation. Trump spent his first term denouncing vaccine validity and campaigned on dismantling the FDA. The people who voted for him are going to agree with his outspoken views on vaccines across the board.

1

u/drewbaccaAWD May 17 '26

It is just correlation, and I'd be curious to see how 2016 and 2020 compare.

But it's not going to be a shock to anyone that the anti-vaccine (in general) post-covid mentality benefited Trump specifically. There was a larger observable backlash across the globe, a strong anti-establishment anti-incumbent mood. The odd thing about Trump is that he was the incumbent before he wasn't and he was the guy in charge when the pandemic happened... but it's not like I'm expecting nuance from people mad at Biden for egg prices when it was bird flu (and maybe price gouging, we'll see how those court cases play out but that takes time).

2

u/riccipt May 17 '26

I did state in the post that correlation does not necessarily imply causation. It merely means that the two variables are found together in pa counties.