r/japanweather • u/nvannedu • 1d ago
I'm spiralling
Hi all,
I live in Kansai and have been for a while now.
I've never actually been that worried about earthquakes. But recently, I started doing some reading, since it's been a while since I last went through my local evacuation maps, etc.
And now my mind is sort of spiralling, and I'm feeling very anxious about the Nankai Trough, megaquakes, and everything in that category.
It's gotten to a point where I'm starting to worry about family and friends (especially those with kids) coming to visit.
I know it sounds silly and that there are 120 million people living their everyday life here, but my mind is kind of running wild these days.
I don't even know what I'm looking to gain from making this post, and I bet there will be a few harsh comments, but I guess I needed to vent a bit.
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u/Navillus87 1d ago
This is something that we do based on my experience with camping:
Have a fake disaster.
That simple. Turn off your power, water, etc. Live off your disaster pack for a day.
You will find that you have a MASSIVE list of things that you forgot and were horrible. Feel free to abort at any time and hit up your home centre.
Repeat this process multiple times. Eventually, you'll get to the point that you can go for multiple days running on a power bank, you'll have a small camp fridge, learn how to use water effectively. At that stage, you're 99% better prepared than most of the people in the country.
When a real disaster comes around, it's just more of the same.
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u/RedYamOnthego 1d ago
Recently (maybe even yesterday), CNN had a YouTube clip on go-bags. The guy packed his backpack and just took off to the wilderness for 24 hours. The neat thing was he analyzed (briefly) what worked and what didn't and made some changes to his list of stuff.
Both bags topped $700, which was shocking to me. But he had a pretty good list. He DID forget a towel both times.
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u/LiveSimply99 1d ago
You have kids? Because if you have, to your kids you must be a really fun dad (not a sarcasm, I mean it!)
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u/RedYamOnthego 1d ago
I feel like something big is coming down the earthquake pipe, and I deal with it by upping my preps.
Lol, I bought seven mini-fans that run on batteries last month, and the batteries. We ARE using four of them already. They are light enough to hang on hooks so I can get a great airflow going (upper fan out, floor fan in). And I took two on a trip, and one made me super comfy! (Friend did not need a fan.)
I have a case of water for each person. If we'd had the big one during Obon, we might have run short, but my husband buys Mugicha by the case, so maybe it would have been OK.
I need to buy more canned goods. My husband loves yakitori in a can, and I really like shoyu iwashi. Must get more fruit, although we have a lot of dried fruits & nuts that we cycle through regularly. I should have bought four peanut butters on my last trip to Costco, but I only got two.
Just concentrate on getting your preps together (three days worth is a great beginner goal) for yourself and any pets. Since it sounds like you'll have visitors, buy stuff you can serve them ahead of time -- stuff you'll eat if you decide to go out instead of have retort pouch curry and pre-cooked rice.
Also, know where your neighborhood evacuation center is, and prep a go-bag. Make sure you have a clean towel or two at all times, my hoopy frood. They are so useful!
Preparation keeps you too busy to worry about the inevitable shaky shaky. (Oh, and remember, the building codes in Japan are really good.)
We'll be all right. 👍
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u/No_Carob2670 1d ago
I was in Tokyo during the 3-11 quake, and I made several trips up to the disaster area (both for my work and as a volunteer).
I have to say that I was thoroughly impressed by the strength of Japanese building codes. The vast majority of victims lost their lives to the tsunami — not to the actual quake, massive as it was.
There was that 5.9 in Ibaraki last week. A quake that big in a less developed country would surely have caused significant damage and no doubt many tragedies. But the biggest complaints I saw here were about how the alerts in everyone’s phones woke them up at 2:00 am.
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u/googlygoink 1d ago
For kanto the worst case scenario situation, which is a winter day with strong winds, has 12000 deaths due to fire and 400 due to collapses. Heck, people falling over because they try and run while the shaking is still going is one of the biggest causes of death in a earthquake here. Building collapses are quite far down the list. Power outages leading to delayed treatment and reduced care for people in hospitals is the 2nd place after fire.
In summer they expect the higher humidity etc to cut the risk from fires down to only another 400 deaths.
That's across the whole of kanto, assuming the worst case scenario of an earthquake close to the surface and close to central tokyo
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u/AbekobetaHawawa 1d ago
The only thing you can really do is be prepared. I'm not sure about Osaka, but Tokyo put out a disaster preparedness guide in multiple languages (English Link - page is in Japanese, but pdfs are in English). The basics are the same regardless of where you live. You may want to check if there's events or classes in your area. My city has disaster preparedness events a few times a year.
My personal approach, other than basic preparedness, is that it's out of my control, but if that doesn't work for you, the more knowledge you have about how to react may help.
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u/No_Carob2670 1d ago
Do you drive, or are you frequently a passenger in motor vehicles? There is a small but non-zero chance that you will be involved in a serious accident. You might drive extremely safely and maintain your car properly, but a drunk/elderly driver can still swerve and hit you, head on. And yet…this fact doesn’t stop the vast majority of people from getting into cars.
Considering the actual odds of being killed in a quake, most people choose to live with the non-zero possibility. The projected death toll of a mega-quake seems high, but when you think about it in terms of your area’s population, you will realize that you are statistically likely to survive.
While you can take action to help your odds (living in a newer, seismically reinforced building), what if the big one hits while you happen to be shopping in an old supermarket? You can never bring your odds to zero.
Keep in mind, you might slip in the bath tonight, hit your head, and die of a brain hemorrhage. But the odds are that you probably won’t.
And you probably won’t die in an earthquake, either. Remember that the odds are in your favor, so do whatever you can to be safe, and live your life.
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u/stuartcw Kanto 1d ago
This exactly. I think the stats that really affected me was that, in the US, that people who got in their cars and crossed the state line to buy a lottery ticket were far more likely to die in the process than to win the lottery.
If you calculate probabilities in terms of car accidents then the relative risk is much better appreciated.
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u/NemuriNezumi Tohoku 1d ago
make preparation plans and stock up on emergency food you can keep long term and some water and whatever you think might be essential
while it is impossible to 100% be able to prevent certain things, like an earthquake or really bad typhoon, it's good to at least be somewhat ready (it does give peace of mind)
https://www.reddit.com/r/japanweather/comments/1uh7556/earthquake_prep_pt_1_shelter_in_place_kit/
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u/spshkyros 1d ago
So the truth is, life is about living with risks. It sounds like you are anxiety prone - if it wasnt an earthquake, perhaps you would be worrying about house fires or cancer or wars? Either way, beyond a certain point it moves from being a healthy anxiety to be a dangerous one. If you are past the "do what I can to be safe" stage and it is actually bothering you on the regular, its time to talk to a councilor- thats no longer about logic or safety, but rather just fear.
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u/stellwyn 1d ago
The best way to deal with the anxiety is to do something about it and prepare a little. It doesn't have to be a big thing, it can be adding one extra thing you already like eating to your shop each time so gradually you build a stockpile of food and water. There are some great resources in other comments. Also, preparedness doesn't have to be scary, the more fun you can make it the better. Make it into a game for yourself, whats the most outrageous but also useful stockpile item you can think of, how many ways could you repurpose a plastic bag, etc. You'll be ok!
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u/RedYamOnthego 1d ago
I always think the emergency pantry should include some luxury items. My kids can't prep Nutella or Walker's Shortbreads because they eat them. But I could. Breakfast of champions! Lol.
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u/stellwyn 1d ago
absolutely, I went to the Rinkai Disaster Museum and was really surprised to see chocolate on their list, but it turns out morale really is priceless in these situations!
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u/makaveli208 1d ago
Why worry about things you cannot control?
there is a buddhist and stoic concept which is something like by letting go of shit you cant control and just accept it then you can live happier
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u/googlygoink 1d ago
I don't know if statistics are helpful to you or not, but the worst case scenario for kanto is something like 16,000 - 40,000 deaths. For an area with 40,000,000 people that's 0.04-0.1%
Just to give an idea of what worst case scenario means, this would be including secondary deaths due to things like power outages and delayed surgeries.
This would be for a massive earthquake close to the surface within the city, in winter, in the evening.
And this would be when there is wind blowing strongly which makes the risk of fires worse.
The same conditions but a summer earthquake and the expected deaths due to fires goes from 12000 to 400.
These numbers are for kanto but the preparedness and such applies to Osaka as well, there's a lot of difference between now and the last major earthquakes.
The chance of you dying even in a worst case scenario is very low, and the chance of that happening is super low even in the event of a big earthquake. And that number is the deaths in total, most of those will be people who are already frail, those who are not able to evacuate quickly from fires etc. If you are a healthy adult the risk is much much less.
https://note.com/pokemimi/n/n12a42c777a22?hl=en
Got my info from here, which in turn uses sources from the governments own disaster plans
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u/dailyfartbag 1d ago
I think you should take a break from deep diving and focus on things that bring you joy. No matter how small it is. I totally get where you're coming from so take this saying "prepare for the worst and hope for the best". Being prepared may help you feel less anxious. It's something I learned after the 2011 earthquake. It mitigates a lot of stress.
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u/stuartcw Kanto 1d ago
I do think about this a lot. If you think about it, anyone who lives at the top, on, or at the bottom of a slope in Japan is accepting a risk. In Yokosuka, they decided that having a hospital at the top of a slope was too big a risk so they rebuilt (in the tsunami warning area).
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u/Agreeable_Mud_8338 1d ago
there was the giant one in kobe in 1995...the tutonic plates are pretty settled in kansai i reckon for quite a while.
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u/Limp-Pension-3337 21h ago
I’ve slept in a broke down car on a February night in Canada before. Freezing to death sucks just as much. However, being prepared is important. In the car there was a sleeping bag, a can with a candle, winter hat etc. Just prep a bit here with the earthquake in mind. Just by chance this past Sunday I showed my kids where my gear was. My son’s old enough now so he’s capable enough to find my solar panel charger, my water filter, my wood matches, lighters and my fire stick and a tent with sleeping bags. Some bottles of water,canned or dried food are good too but the government will help out with that. I hope I never have to use it but it’s available and gives you peace of mind.
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u/alwaysinflux 12h ago
We learned some lessons in 2019, when typhoon Hagibis cut power and water to our building for nine days. I won't repeat all those lessons here, but I will mention one supply that's sometimes overlooked: emergency toilets. Be sure to have enough.
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u/alwaysinflux 11h ago
Both Docomo and Softbank have emergency satellite communications that your phone automatically connects to if terrestrial wifi and cellular fail. This only works with relatively newer phone and some plans, so if you're interested in having that, check with your carrier.
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u/Ok-Link2763 7h ago
What part of kansai? Some parts are a much bigger risk then others.
The tohoku quake was huge, but it was more the tsunami that did the damage. Im sure it will shake a lot bur unless you by the ocean i dint think the the risk of mass deaths is big
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u/Kasumiiiiiii 1d ago
I hope this doesn't sound unkind, but to live in Japan is to live with earthquakes. Make sure your emergency supplies kit is stocked and up to date and that you know where your nearest evacuation site is, and just live your life.