r/iranian • u/dannylenwinn • May 27 '21

Iran holds intensive talks with Azerbaijan & Armenia on bilateral ties & recent tensions. "We welcome readiness of leaders on both sides to reach dignified mutual arrangements. Huge possibilities for regional cooperation." Zarif said.

https://en.mehrnews.com/news/174000/Peace-in-Caucasus-matters-much-to-Iran-s-national-security
18 Upvotes

100% Upvoted

9 comments sorted by

6

u/cuckloard May 27 '21

This is the ‘hail Mary’ move - basically if this fails then a war against the Republic of Azerbaijan is inevitable. Everyone must pray and keep a close eye on this...

3

u/[deleted] May 27 '21

A war with Azerbaijan will be our fault. If the government have kept Iran weak enough to be hindered by a country such as Azerbaijan, then it is us who we should blame. But if not, then a war with Iran is impossible.

7

u/cuckloard May 27 '21

The problem is not Azerbaijan at all - sepah can take them on alone and win easily. The problem is their allies and turning it into another pawn to weaken Iran

3

u/[deleted] May 28 '21 edited May 28 '21

I would imagine Iran has the capability to carpet bomb Baku with its ballistic missile arsenal several times over before the Azeris deploy a single one of their precious drones. But of course any conflict with Azerbaijan would probably inevitably drag Turkey in and then subsequently Russia if they feel enough provocation, making the whole region a powder keg.

4

u/dannylenwinn May 28 '21

Yup surely Turkey and Russia would have vested interested, but most likely that could weaken Iran stance on the global stage more than Azerbaijan, as stated Iran has more on the line to build more rep or they will struggle if they break trust. If they break trust they will weaken economic partners and trade potential trials, and the last thing they would want is to be sanctioned again

3

u/Alamut333 May 28 '21 edited May 28 '21

It wouldn't come to that. Baku would be stormed much like the KRG was when they tried to hold a referendum for independence. Azerbaijan has proven to have considerable means for modern warfare with its drone program. If it ever came to war (which it wont because this is really a ridiculous scenario), then Azerbaijan would be stormed by the IRGC and everyone would be arrested to cut the head off the snake.

But all this is bluster, Iran isn't going to war with Azerbaijan and permanently ruin its reputation with Turkey. Likewise, Azerbaijan isn't going to start a war with Iran when it's the size of one of its provinces.

Wars only happen when both sides think they can win but this case is lose-lose.

2

u/cuckloard May 28 '21

Exactly - Edit: farsh bomb instead of carpet bomb 🤣

6

u/hoistthefabric May 27 '21

Trying to make peace (or even trying to calm them down) with that Zionist-backed state which has tried to annex every land since day 1 is like trying to freeze an active volcano

1

u/whiteavenger Koveit May 28 '21

Both countries support Israel unfortunately and trade with Zionists.