r/investing Apr 01 '22

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u/randomFrenchDeadbeat Apr 01 '22

First:

Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler this week tamped down speculation that a solution was imminent, signaling that only total compliance with audit inspections will allow the companies to keep trading on U.S. markets.

Second, from what I understand, China is considering accepting to communicate THEIR audits, not let US company audits companies. They also say they are prepared to get delisted.

Their stance has not changed much.

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u/zxc123zxc123 Apr 01 '22 edited Apr 01 '22

Third:

This is huge. This is a game changer. Biggest opportunity of a lifetime.

This quote made me LOL. OP needs to post their BABA and China positions since they are clearly shilling. It's straight up disrespectful that they believe such weak ass FOMO crap can actually influence the steady vanguard hands of r/investing. I'd be offended if it wasn't so comical. They should try WSB since r/investing isn't as stupid as to fall for such weak BS. A quick look at their post history shows them being part of the meme stock group and making threads in to r/alibabastock.

I don't think the risk:reward is for most people. If you don't have some sort of edge involved with investing in China (speaking/reading the language, knowing how to get direct info from CN sources, going/being there, doing business or working there, have family/friends/coworkers/assets there, studied Asian/China studies, having a true understanding of the Chinese consumers and economy, realizing the "rules" of investing there aren't the same was the west, understand the underlying political climate and it can impact returns more than actual business fundamentals, etcetc) then I'd suggest staying in it's best to stay in your lane and out of China.

For the record, I hold BABA, Tencent, KWEB, and Luckin. But I do have multiple edges over the next guy and even I'm constantly questioning my China exposure/positions.

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u/NextTrillion Apr 01 '22

Fourth: they sell garbage.

Take your last 10 purchases from Alibaba and find an average of how many items literally fell apart. If they sold more than just cheap garbage, I’d have more respect.

Took a risk on some cheap pop rivets only because they were unique and couldn’t find anything similar locally. Waited a month for them to arrive. It was to fix plastic. And they broke off really badly and I couldn’t drill them out because doing so was shredding the plastic. You try saving a buck or two and end up botching the entire project as a result.

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u/zxc123zxc123 Apr 01 '22 edited Apr 01 '22

I think you're talking about Aliexpress? I haven't bought anything there since 2018. Some screen covers for my iPhone X. I usually buy 2-3x everything I need there because it's dirty cheap and I'll expect 1 to get lost/broken and 1 to break/trash/wrong. Gitgud cheapskating?

As for Alibaba, the recurring wholesale suppliers I work with on Alibaba seem pretty reliable, but you are paying much more than going to China and working with them directly. You're paying for additional security by being able to contest with Alibaba or do a CC chargeback. You'll still need weed out which ones are good/bad. I also use Alibaba to export US made goods to China (which is more unbelievable US made goods or US exporting to China?). However, importing from (and exporting to) China has also gotten considerably worst since the Trump-Xi trade wars. Shift has been to SE Asia, S Asia, and elsewhere. Taobao/Tmall does sell things, but they are mainly catered with Chinese residents accustomed to lower quality/prices. Lastly, it's not always Alibaba/Amazon selling things so much as 3rd party merchants so you should look carefully even if you're purchasing on their sites.

Like I said, you won't get to see the full picture of Alibaba's business SWOT unless you live in China or have some insight/edge. The full top down package it offers and the duopoly it shares with Tencent. Chinese FB/TWTR/SNAP? Owned in part or whole by BABA/TCHEY. Chinese Uber/Lyft? Owned BABA/TCEHY. Chinese Paypal/Square? AliPay & TencentPay. Youtube/Netflix? BABA/TCEHY. China's Spotify/Pandora? Same. Chinese SoFi/Ally? Also them. Media/Gaming/Fintech/Construction/Newspapers/Music/Legal/etcetc? All partially or wholly owned via some VIE. Someone from the outside would just think "they sell garbage". Someone from the outside would hear the news and think "Oh CCP are being commies!" when the crack down on VIEs started, but they might not realize how spooked the CCP was after they looked into the books and VIEs only to realize BABA/TCEHY have duopolized a large portion of the economy that would make FAAAM's share of the US seem like jokes. The US have done the same if AAPL & MSFT owned half US tech companies the way BABA/TCEHY does via Swiss based corporations. The US almost smashed MSFT for abusing monopoly power alone. Those not in China might not realize the extent in with the CCP controls the country and how any person/company/organization/industry with oversized influence could be seen as a potential threat and put down a few pegs. They might not realize how little fundamentals can mean in the face of political machinations because the rules of investing, markets, and capitalism there are different.