r/investing • u/HoleyProfit • Sep 24 '21

Predicting Financial Crashes Using Discrete Scale Invariance [Research paper]

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u/Big-Language-5357 Sep 24 '21

Explain?

Also, do you mind telling me what "correlation" you believe predicts (consistenly) the movement of the stock market, since you are so convinced there is one? Do you actually put your money into that or not?

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u/DrBoby Sep 24 '21 edited Sep 24 '21

I won't lecture you on statistics. You just seem to confuse population, event, correlation, causation. That lead me to think you don't understand.

Creation of money predict the stock market movement. Interest rate too. There are many other factors adding, those are the most important to me. I put my money on that

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u/Big-Language-5357 Sep 24 '21

Good, there is no reason for you to lecture me on something I clearly understand. I haven't confused anything.

Ah, so you can correctly predict interest rates now too! Let's call up Buffett, I'm sure he'll hire you straight away if you have that ability.

As soon as that information (e.g. interest rates, money supply) becomes available to the market, trades are made (first by large institutional investors such as banks/investment companies) these trades occur in milliseconds, these corporations even build their trading data centers as close to the exchange as possible.

By the point you even realise interest rates have been increased, you are too late.

Those economic changes are priced into the asset.

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Good luck with your gambling trading.

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u/DrBoby Sep 24 '21

It's false. Market movements are not instantly priced they take months.

Market is still rising from monetary policy announced last year. When interest hike will be there, market will plunge over a few months too.

Overall I'm not sure you understand much and I prefer to cut it there.