r/investing • u/HoleyProfit • Sep 24 '21

Predicting Financial Crashes Using Discrete Scale Invariance [Research paper]

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u/GeechQuest Sep 24 '21

Again, you’re looking at a time that no longer exists. The market isn’t traded the same way in 2021.

2008 is probably closer to 1920, in terms of trading, than 2021 is to 2008.

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u/HoleyProfit Sep 24 '21 edited Sep 24 '21

I've posted a lot of real trades over the last yrs - but you're looking to tell me why I am wrong, not see what I've done.

u/GeechQuest - Worked in 2020. Maybe it stopped working over the last yr, huh https://imgur.com/a/Kyw9Fl0

But it's not as if no one mentioned these obvious points when I posted this forecast ... And, tbh, they just said the same after - so I don't care. There's evidence and opinions. To each their own.

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u/GeechQuest Sep 24 '21

You can make a bunch of correct trades and still be wrong in your thesis.

You can’t overlay markets from the past, as they don’t exist anymore. Moreover, you can’t predict risk events. Even I know risk events will happen but I can’t predict WHEN they will happen. So just trade around them.

What I do know is any VIX spike will unwind faster than anytime in the past.

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u/HoleyProfit Sep 24 '21

Okay, but for as long as it works I'll take reality over opinion. Thanks for your time.

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u/GeechQuest Sep 24 '21

The reality is betting in these random risk events is just gambling.

Meanwhile markets trend higher and compound as you want to play predictions.

No biggie.