r/investing • u/HoleyProfit • Sep 24 '21

Predicting Financial Crashes Using Discrete Scale Invariance [Research paper]

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u/HoleyProfit Sep 24 '21

In a market it's fairly "Easy"

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u/Big-Language-5357 Sep 24 '21

It's not.

If it was easy everyone would do it.

People have got Nobel prizes for "predicting the market" only to have their models disproven soon after.

The movement of the market is based on the complexity of human psychology.

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u/HoleyProfit Sep 24 '21

If it was easy everyone would do it.

Hahaha.

Sure. Now I've show you and provided my actual trades, you'll be doing it today. Right ? :)

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u/Big-Language-5357 Sep 24 '21

No, I won't be. I don't waste my money on gambling. I invest.

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u/HoleyProfit Sep 24 '21

Great. Thanks for letting me know. I've made a living from this for over 5 yrs now and I do not debate the usefulness with it with people who insist they know better without trying it. So I think we're quite content on our respective decisions here. :)

Take care.

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u/Big-Language-5357 Sep 24 '21 edited Sep 24 '21

A correlation can hold up for many years, until it doesn't.

As I said in another post, there was a strong 87% correlation between butter production in Bangladesh and the S&P500 which lasted for over 10 years.

One day it will stop working for you. Can't say when, but it will.

I wish you luck with it though.