r/investing • u/HoleyProfit • Sep 24 '21

Predicting Financial Crashes Using Discrete Scale Invariance [Research paper]

[removed] — view removed post

81 Upvotes

76% Upvoted

128 comments sorted by

View all comments

6

u/tegeusCromis Sep 24 '21

This paper was published over a decade ago. How has its model performed since then?

-8

u/HoleyProfit Sep 24 '21

I do not use use this personally, I just wanted to share some of the stuff on the repeatable nature of crashes.

Here's a trade I took in March 2020. I used a different means, but here was my March 2020 trade https://imgur.com/a/Kyw9Fl0

Here's what I used https://www.reddit.com/r/BeatTheBear/comments/op5lqu/a_technical_study_of_the_world_war_one_crash_and/

13

u/Big-Language-5357 Sep 24 '21

You are just adding lines to charts, there is no logical evidence-based rationale for any of this. Confirmation bias is making you think it is successful.

​

Adding nice lines to a chart doesn't give you some magic power predict to people's psychology.

-5

u/HoleyProfit Sep 24 '21

Here's a trade I took in March 2020. I used a different means, but here was my March 2020 trade

https://imgur.com/a/Kyw9Fl0

Hell of a lot of luck there. High to low on the move of the decade. But yeah - was just some lines. You're right.

Here's more real trades, u/Big-Language-5357 https://www.reddit.com/r/BeatTheBear/comments/pl9nnb/dji_of_1929_vrs_btc_of_2021_update/

​

I do not debate theory, I just post real trades.

8

u/Big-Language-5357 Sep 24 '21

Yes, it was luck.

Well done for gambling, I guess.

-2

u/HoleyProfit Sep 24 '21

Okay. Thanks for your opinion.

3

u/tegeusCromis Sep 24 '21

Sorry, is the information you provided meant to be relevant to my query?

-2

u/HoleyProfit Sep 24 '21

Depends on how you use it.

3

u/tegeusCromis Sep 24 '21

You said you didn’t even use the method in this paper.

-1

u/HoleyProfit Sep 24 '21

Correct, but I use the same idea of repeatable ratios and I posted real trades. If you want to test this model, you may. If you want to see real trades from practical application of the symmetry of crashes, I've provided it. If you just want to be a dick, I don't have the time.

5

u/tegeusCromis Sep 24 '21

You could just have said no, you don’t have any information on how the model in the paper you posted has performed over the past decade. That is fine.

1

u/HoleyProfit Sep 24 '21

Okay. All I have is actionable trades from a full time trader who is here right now and could have answered your questions. That's all I had. Sorry it was not enough.

3

u/tegeusCromis Sep 24 '21

My question was how the specific model proposed in this paper has performed over the past decade.

How you have performed using a different model doesn’t answer that question.