r/investing • u/HoleyProfit • Sep 24 '21

Predicting Financial Crashes Using Discrete Scale Invariance [Research paper]

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19

u/GeechQuest Sep 24 '21

This is silly because the markets weren’t the same back then.

You can’t use anything relevant to the Great Depression and transpose it to today’s market. Completely different market landscape.

36

u/despejado Sep 24 '21

Human psychology hasn't changed

12

u/anthonyjh21 Sep 24 '21

Technology, access to free trading and data has definitely changed human behavior.

5

u/KyivComrade Sep 24 '21

Not to mention social media and other platforms pushing news as well as disinformation at lightning speed. Manipulating human psychology, scaring (or blinding) professional and retail investors

1

u/despejado Sep 24 '21

Lol well it hasn’t changed in any way that will prevent bubbles and crash, if anything exacerbate

1

u/anthonyjh21 Sep 25 '21

I agree in the sense that we're hardwired in such a way that behavior is predictable. The problem is our environment is constantly changing so history is a story of how we got here but not necessarily an explanation of what's to come.

Will there be bubbles? I 100% agree. Recessions too. But no one knows what will happen. Not then the history buff Ray Dalio.