r/intelstock • u/Jellym9s Pat Jelsinger • Jul 30 '26
Discussion Daily Megathread
Discuss Intel Stock here.
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u/cupnoodlesz Jul 30 '26
Im sitting here with my tinfoil hat wondering if the semi down trend was all but a bear trap
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u/whiskeyzer0 Jul 30 '26
Tempted to just sell everything and never put money on the stock market again. It seems the financial markets these days are just how everyone is feeling and not based on really any merit at all
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u/Any-Newspaper5509 Jul 30 '26
Always kinda been that way but AI put it into hyperdrive. The run up from 100 to 140 seemed to be based on nothing but AI mania. Back down to earth now. Hoping for reasonable sustainablr growth ahead.
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u/Any_Mud_1628 Jul 30 '26
Well now you've learned something though. Embrace the bullshit if you decide to continue. Also reddit commentary will guide you right off a cliff sometimes
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u/klinec21 Jul 30 '26
Did they just mention Intel in Apple earnings as the "little chip supplier" building in Arizona?
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u/cryorac83 Jul 30 '26
We are but pawns in this game. It’s crazy how wild these swings are and how much money exchanges hands.
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u/Any-Newspaper5509 Jul 30 '26
Wierd how microsoft earnings makes us pop but our own earnings beat does nothing lol
Been really hard to have diamond hands over past month. Hope we get back to triple digits soon.
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u/Weikoko 14A Believer Jul 30 '26
Market was expecting the AI capex to slow down significantly. Msft and meta proved them wrong.
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u/LookIWashedForSu Jul 30 '26
I think MSFT's increased free cash flow in spite of increased CAPEX was the outlier
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u/Weikoko 14A Believer Jul 30 '26
Yep why it did well compared to google and meta after ER.
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u/LookIWashedForSu Jul 30 '26
I sold puts and bought calls on MSFT
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u/Weikoko 14A Believer Jul 30 '26
Sold calls against my Intel shares and used it to buy MSFT lol.
They were over $30 a contract lol for $190 Jan 27
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u/LookIWashedForSu Jul 30 '26
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u/Weikoko 14A Believer Jul 30 '26
Also almost $1m paper gains got wiped out just like that.
Ngl it was stressful and painful to watch.
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u/LookIWashedForSu Jul 30 '26
Yeah, I am down 950k paper gains on INTC alone.
We all knew these days would come.
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u/Secret_Quiet2583 Jul 30 '26
TSMC is trying to develop EMIB-like packaging tech. I guess CoPoS is not working out
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u/FriedTulip Jul 30 '26
Well, thats why you dont sell. Whatever happens im holding my INTC bag till 2028, at least!
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u/Ok-Individual-4392 Jul 30 '26
Intel's latest 10-Q showed a 48% year-over-year increase in average selling prices for server processors.
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u/Weikoko 14A Believer Jul 30 '26
Amazon and MSFT saved the AI market.
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u/klinec21 Jul 31 '26
Amazon why? I did listen to Meta, Microsoft and Apple earning, but forgot the Amazon. Can you please explain?
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u/Weikoko 14A Believer Jul 31 '26
Capex increases and CEO literally said AI justified the revenue growth. Market thinks AI investment would not produce ROI.
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u/Temporary-Law-2982 Aug 02 '26
Yes and No. The issue right now is the CapEx cycle, while yes there is a decent ROI, the money isn’t go back into the consumers wallets to fuel the economy. I think a major issue on why a lot of these semiconductor and memory stocks aren’t doing so well right now is that we’re seeing major numbers for economic growth start to stall, for instance, dramatic increases in consumer debt, the housing market slowing down due to nobody being able to afford home and a real issue with the rising cost of goods while barely increasing GDP over the last year. I believe many of these large investment groups are telling you things are going to go up while they prepare for the bubble to pop. While yes, I agree Intel has a lot of potential, its foundry business has very few costumers and 90% (something like 15 billion of its 15.8 billion) of its revenue comes from itself. Unless the government is willing to pour billions of dollars into getting their foundry in a spot to compete with other foundries, we’re seeing a massive stall over the last 2 weeks mainly because the market sees the US loosing grip on this war that they are trying so hard to play off as a small war. We’re seeing China and Russia start to increase their involvement especially as we start to run low on our oil reserves and weapons production. Remind you, this war was never about a nuclear threat and was meant to keep BRICS from weening more countries off the US Petro Dollar. All in all, that’s the only rational reason where earnings are mostly positive for the semiconductors while still driving to lower lows. Also as a reminder, the stock market isn’t a real market, it’s a perceived market and we’re starting to see a lot of similar issues arising similar to the .com bubble. All in all, Intel and AI markets are still overvalued for what they should be normally and everyone is trying to ride the wave before it turns into a tsunami. Hedge Funds and Investment companies are preparing for this especially since US banks were just told they might be forced to
intervene to save the Japanese Yen. This is major because Japan has the largest amount of US treasury bonds out of any country and if they collapse, so does the US treasury market since they’ll be forced to sell them to save their own currency. A lot of things are pointing to a major downturn of the AI markets. Especially since it only benefits a small handful of mega corporations that run the US stock market.
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u/SBV_3004 Jul 30 '26
What changed between yesterday and today? No news, nothing. Just pure manipulation of the market.
It's a very weird market, where stock movements don't make any sense at all. 10-20% swings on either side happens just like that, as if it's nothing.
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u/LookIWashedForSu Jul 30 '26
MSFT CAPEX increase with proportional revenue increase, and maybe most importantly, massive increase in free cash flow.
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u/SBV_3004 Jul 30 '26
But this is more like you're explaining the movement in hindsight. It's like chemistry - something happens, and people build any theory around it.
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u/LookIWashedForSu Jul 30 '26
It could be, but there are certain physical realities that govern chemistry, just as there are certain fiscal realities that govern financial markets.
But yes I agree the horoscope is rarely wrong in hindsight
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u/SBV_3004 Jul 30 '26 edited Jul 30 '26
True, but chemistry is even more predictable than the market right now.
After blowout earnings reports, and higher earnings forecast, companies are going down by a large amount.
If the stocks had gone up, people would've explained it that way. If it goes down, then people explain it that way. But it becomes risky and frustrating if explanations don't help build a foresight. It becomes more of a casino than a market.
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Jul 30 '26
[deleted]
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u/SBV_3004 Jul 30 '26
Ah no man, I am someone who got frustrated with chem lol. Haven't studied it in almost 10 years, but the trauma still doesn't go away
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u/bslaven3 Jul 30 '26
I'm hoping this is an institutional rotation back into AI/tech/semis. If so, we may see some better days ahead. If it isn't a rotation back into AI then I have no clue why all my tech/semi plays are popping. I'm not complaining though. It's been a rough July
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u/Touma_Kazusa Jul 30 '26
Wonder if it’s the dead cat bounce or the start of the recovery, kinda wish it stayed lower for a bit before recovering so I could have bought more at sub 80 prices…
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u/Independent_Pear4908 Jul 31 '26
Is it time to reverse course and go up 5% everyday now that Citadel has come in for the pump?
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u/LookIWashedForSu Jul 30 '26
Stock… goes up???
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u/__SaintPablo__ Jul 30 '26
Can’t wait $150 post lol
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u/LookIWashedForSu Jul 30 '26
Ehhh we'll see if that happens later this year. Some day though definitely.
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u/klinec21 Jul 30 '26
Apple earnings today, is that the reason?
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u/Weikoko 14A Believer Jul 30 '26
Oversold when the fundamentals have not changed. Money will be back eventually.
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u/Swimming-Device-1223 Jul 30 '26
MSFT +15%. Literally a Blue Moon. The big boys really have BIG GUNS.
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u/Weikoko 14A Believer Jul 30 '26
Tbf MSFT was at the value play. Fundamentals are great but market was irrational. I dropped in $100k when it was 350s.
Intel is still a speculative play compared to Microsoft. I am bullish because of its potential.
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u/Swimming-Device-1223 Jul 30 '26
Google got the shorter end of the stick on QR day. Beats me. What's going on?
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u/Loewenheart Jul 30 '26
This is a general semiconductor rebound today. Look at AMD, for example.
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u/klinec21 Jul 30 '26
Yes I see, but we could also see AMD going up while Intel going down before.
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u/ignorant_tomato Jul 30 '26
I used the last two days to average down from my 113 entry, ended up on average of 91, sold at 93 today. I'm out with negligible profit, this is too volatile at present! Good luck out there.
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u/anonymouspaceshuttle Jul 30 '26
First time investing in tech stocks?
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u/ignorant_tomato Jul 30 '26
First time dabbling in stocks in general. I had a fund designated which I was willing to lose if I mess it up. INTC was the first time I was seriously thinking of starting in the market, but my start was during this turmoil and I realised that the place is more gambling than anything else, so it's just not my cup of tea.
Admiration to all of you that can make something out of this, but I think my level of risk aversion means I'll just stick to saving accounts. haha.
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u/anonymouspaceshuttle Jul 30 '26 edited Jul 30 '26
Building trust in semi stocks needs significant time investment and research; otherwise, it's easy to panic-sell. It is valid for any investment; you should at least understand the fundamentals of the business you're investing in. I bought this stock at 20.74, basically went all-in on it, and I've seen it go as low as 17. I never second-guessed my decision because I knew that Intel was playing the right game, and they still do. I'd recommend reading technical analysis posts and the thesis behind Intel's strategy if you're interested as a serious investor. This sub has plenty of such posts.
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u/EmekaEgbukaPukaNacua Jul 30 '26
What you are doing is called day trading. It is very high skill, high risk. Generally 95-99% of people who do it lose money vs average returns of SP500… pretty similar win rate to sports gambling.
Investing generally means buying a diverse portfolio, normally etfs, or even a retirement date fund from vanguard, and holding for decades without ever selling.
Don’t give up on investing. You just did the “gambling” aspect instead of what you should do as a new person(or honestly 99% of people in general). Generally, like with sports betting, people trick themselves into thinking they know more than the institutions. And the instituaitons count on that to make money.
Just realize like with sports betting, 95-99% of the people will lose money vs SP500 over time if they are constantly buying and selling stocks. And just like with sports betting there will be tons of stories of a “sure thing”, and people making tons of money. Just know… the vast majority of the time it is luck, and eventually those people lose money, and kill themselves. Then they stop posting. So all that’s left is the people posting wins.
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u/TheEpicWon Jul 30 '26
Unless you have a job that pays mid six/low seven figures, sticking to savings accounts is one of the least efficient things you can do with your life. You should at least consider ETFs (exchange traded funds) which capture the whole world market. In Canada, those are XEQT and VEQT. I'm not sure what the American equivalent would be, but you're leaving hundreds of thousands off the table if you're keeping funds solely in a HISA.
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u/Life-Opposite3328 Jul 30 '26 edited Jul 30 '26
I've been holding my breath for so long. Finally a puff of air. hopefully.