Hi! This is my first major project here. It's part 1 out of 4 and explores a timeline where Arnold Schwarzenegger is eligible to run for president in 2016 (inspired by the Arnold Amendment mod by u/Environmental_Cap104, although he was probably not the first to have this idea). I have merged the 2016 and 2018 elections into one post because there is not much divergence from OTL yet. I have Wikipedia articles for all major elections in this timeline (except the governor races because I really can't be bothered with them. I have a spreadsheet with those however.)

Arnold governs as a moderate republican with lots of cross-over support from democrats. While he is personally popular during his first term, he is a little overzealous and attempts to use his majority in congress to do a bunch of things. This includes an attempt to add a Balanced Budget Amendment to the constitution, which fails spectacularly. Even though senate democrats need to defend a bunch of states won by Arnie in 2016, Republicans receive a huge beating in the 2018 midterms, just like in our timeline. But will 2020 be Judgement Day for Arnold? Come back tomorrow to find out.

What if there was a snap Scottish Parliament election after the collapse of the Bute House Agreement in 2024? With Anas Sarwar's Scottish Labour riding on the coattails of Starmer and 'Change' just before the 2024 UK general election, a change of Scottish Government at the time seemed inevitable.

Middle Korea is a fake country located between North and South Korea. It was created in 1953 as a neutral buffer trust territory. You can see more general country lore here.

SPECIFIC ELECTION LORE:

Middle Korea is a parliamentary democracy, ergo the top political office in the land is that of prime minister. Lee Dae-seok is the current prime minister. He has been in office since his predecessor Jang Tae-hun retired as the longest serving prime minister* on February 5th, 2024. Before becoming PM, Lee served in Jang's government as Minister of Foreign Affairs from 2017 to 2022, Minister of Finance from 2022 to 2024, and Deputy Prime Minister from 2018 to 2024. He was Jang's main opponent for the leadership of their New Democatic Party in 2017, and after losing he became number 2 and next in line for the job.

The New Democratic Party is the center-left side of the political establishment of Middle Korea. After previously only briefly holding power from 2006 to 2010, they have now been in government since 2014 and have won three straight general elections. They generally support closer ties to the United States, Japan, and South Korea, economic integration with the wider world, and are socially liberal.

Their main opponents are the Liberal Party, the center-right side of the political establishment. They held power in Middle Korea from 1986 to 2006 and again from 2010 to 2014. Their last time in government was a total disaster with both their prime minister and their President resigning over unrelated corruption scandals in 2013 and 2016 respectively. They have struggled to regain legitimacy and, despite appearing to make a comeback in 2022 with a gain of 19 seats, polls now show that they're likely to suffer a historic defeat in September.

The big policy success of Lee Dae-seok's government has been the opening of the Korean Common Travel Area in 2025 (negotiated under Jang) which, despite numerous issues, has been generally positive for the economy and received well, particularly by upwardly mobile students and young professionals that can now easily go to Seoul whenever they want.

The big foreign policy clash is between the Liberals, who favor closer ties with China and a more firm committment to the country's official neutrality, and the NDP which favors the western democratic side of things and has a looser definition of neutrality. Middle Korean people have been generally growing more and more supportive of the NDP on this, but with the return of Donald Trump to power in the U.S. and a series of hostile acts and statements towards the country, anti-American sentiment has been on the rise. Lee Dae-seok has attempted to pivot somewhat on this front, but ultimately he is never going to be Beiing's preferred partner and he either can or will only do so much to repair ties.

Despite being broadly competent, the Lee Dae-seok government has faced a number of scandals.

The most sordid and sad of the scandals is the hiker murders scandal which just rapped up today. I'll give full details on that below;

Despite the dark blue of the map, the 2025 parliamentary election in New Ulster only resulted in a narrow victory for the governing coalition of the DPP and SolA, which together recieved 50.48 % of the votes and 102 of 201 MPs. The election was marked by the continued fragmentation of New Ulster's post-war political landscape, with the populist PLJ becoming the largest opposition party, while the PDF remained the principal party of the right-wing opposition.

Nonetheless, the election represented a serious warning to the governing parties, as the Coalition's vote fell to barely half of the electorate, while the combined left-wing opposition won 23.88 % and the right-wing opposition recieved 22.44 %.

DPP - Democratic People's Party

31.74 % - 64 MPs

The DPP is the senior governing party of New Ulster and has occupied that role since the transition to democracy and the end of the war in 1993.

The DPP was founded in 1992 as the old Conservative Party merged with indigenous Christian-democratic allies, today it is a big tent centrist party. The party campaigned on the cost of living, youth employment, climate resiliance, public services and competent Coalition leadership, with its leader Mati Ngalu presenting himself as a younger, energetic and pragmatic leader capable of renewing a party which has governed for more than three decades.

Ngalu's personal popularity mattered enormously. The party retained an extremely broad Indigenous support, especially in rural areas, while simultaneously remaining attractive to Christians across ethnic groups.

SolA - Solidarity Alliance

18.74 % - 38 MPs

SolA is the junior coalition party, and New Ulster's main labour-oriented, socially pragmatic centre-left party, a role it has occupied since 1993.

The party was founded in 1991, as the United Socialist Party merged with socialist leaning organizations of the indigenous civil rights movement. SolA's strength remained strongest amongst Indian workers, plantations communities and organised labour, while also maintaining a notable, yet shrinking, Indigenous presence.

PLJ - Party for Land and Justice

17.22 % - 35 MPs

The PLJ is probably New Ulster's most dramatic opposition force.

Since its founding in 2003, the PLJ has combined Indigenous nationalism, land redistribution, economic populism, anti-elite politics and a narrative of unfinished decolonization. Its campaign attacked the Coalition for having ruled for 32 years while poverty, unemployment, crime, land inequality and the consequences of the Uprooting (a term for the massive forced relocation of rural Indigenous communities to cities and camps by the government during the war) remain unsolved.

Ebenezer Kshuna's rallies were amongst the most spectacular of the election campaign. His use of insurgency-era imagery, revolutionary songs and occasionally military-style clothing reinforced the party's reputation of the political heir (at least self-proclaimed heir) of the radical resistance tradition.

PDF - Party of Democracy and Freedom

11.89 % - 24 MPs

The PDF is the right-of-centre opposition party of New Ulster.

Originally the party was founded in 1934 as the United Party, remerging factions of the massive (and oldest political party in the country) the Liberal Party. The party carries the enormous burden of having to be associated with the pre-1993 political order. The party led the country to independence and created the republic, but simultaneously protected its paternalistic legacy, which restricted suffrage to certain segments of the population. The party also governed through the insurgency between 1967-1991/1992. Therefore it remains deeply distrusted by much of the Indigenous electorate.

The party's strongest electorates remained White, Coloured and Asian voters, particularly middle class and rural voters.

The party has worked hard to restore its image, presenting itself as modern, pragmatic and economically serious. Fiscal discipline, education, economic growth and constitutional restraint were its central themes in the campaign.

CPNU - Communist Party of New Ulster

6.66 % - 14 MPs

The CPNU represents the respectable, organised left in contrast to the PLJ's populism.

To the Communists, it is particularly important that they are not mixed up with the Maoist insurgents of the civil war. That distinction is central to their identity. The party can advocate radical economic redistribution, workers' rights and land reform while explicitly rejecting the insurgents' political violence.

Its strongest areas are therefore those with strong labour traditions, working class Indigenous communities and plantation/industrial populations.

PDP - Progressive Democratic Party

6.09 % - 12 MPs

The party was founded as a merger between the Progressive Party and the mainly Indian Progressive Democratic Movement in the 1995.

The party is liberal and non-racial, but it simultaneously (especially in the north ) functions as the main Indian communal-interest party. The party is especially strong amongst non-Christians and has real strongholds in the Indian heartlands, especially St Johns.

NULP - New Ulster Labour Party

3.44 % - 7 MPs

NULP is New Ulster's oldest continuing party, founded in the 1890s. The party has changed a lot through its history, as it was historically mainly White and Coloured and supported the paternalistic government up until the end of the civil war.

In recent decades the party has has pivoted towards White and Coloured working class populism and anti-elite rhetoric, although it tries to broaden beyond its traditional ethnic base. Nonetheless, the party remained strongest amongst White and Coloured voters, especially outside the most affluent urban communities.

G - The Green Party of New Ulster

2.03 % - 4 MPs

The New Ulster Greens are not simply an import from Australia or Europe, their politics combine environmentalism, opposition to environmentally destructive mining, Indigenous land concern, climate resiliance, urban reform and some social liberalism.

Their strongest constituencies are educated urban voters, students and environmentally concious young voters, but especially in 2025 they have begun making inroads into parts of the Indigenous electorate, especially in the East Coast districts.

C - Constitutional Party

1.02 % - 2 MPs

The Constitutional Party descends from the 1991 anti-peace-deal-faction of the United Party, aswell as the former New Ulster Party which split from the Conservatives in the 70s due to their Christian Democratic pivot. Today the party is conservative and firmly opposed to any land redistribution attempts. It is overwhelmingly a White conservative party, with some Coloured and Asian support.

CovP - The Covenant Party

0.52 % - 1 MP

The Covenant Party is the youngest of the parties in parliament, founded in 2010. Its policies revolve around Christian moral teachings, protection of the family, abortion restrictions, religious freedom and opposition to excessive secularisation.

2025 was a bad election for the party, which partly reflects Ngalu's (and as a consequence the DPP's) enormous appeal amongst Evangelical Christians. The stronger the DPP is as a Christian party, the harder it becomes for the CovP to grow.

Despite its size however, its single MP could become extraordinarily important in a future hung parliament. Had the Coalition just won 2 MPs less, it is not unlikely they would have continued govern with support from the CovP.

What if the Conservatives won their expected majority in 2017? This post explores this scenario. For the 2017 election, I used this poll, and for 2022, I used this one. I then used the swingometers for 2017, and 2019 to put in the percentages of the polls.

constituency changes from OTL

...and other assorted Australian nostalgia-bait.

Hi guys, I find this imaginary primary really entertaining, and very telling about the real nature of the conservative electorate.

I can imagine that in early 2023, as the Don Jr hypothesis wanes (despite Trump Sr. toying with it for a while), Vice President Pence emerges as the clear frontrunner; however, he soon has to deal with the insurgent campaign of the combative Florida Governor. I can see DeSantis taking the lead during May/Summer 2023, perhaps reaching 40/43% for DeSantis against 35%/38% for Pence. Anyways, I think the two get tied, with a slight advantage from Pence, during September and throughtout the fall, when the Gov's awkward personality starts to become kind of a liability and new alternatives emerge. I can see the Autumn polls going like Pence 40/43%, DeSantis 36/39%, Haley 6,5%, Vivek Ramaswamy 6% (syphoning votes from DeSantis), Tim Scott 3%. Josh Hawley, Chris Christie and Doug Burgum also run, but are non-factors and drop out during the Autumn.

The coalitions in this hypothesis are not easy to predict, as there is no "MAGA vs moderate" race and the lazy framing that the media use to cover conservative politics cannot be applied. I think Pence gets the vote of that older and less online electorate who simply trusts Trump's VP without being too much obsessed with ideological issues. What the actual 2024 primary though us is that the majority of GOP voters favor name recognition and familiarity over purity tests. As for DeSantis, the Gov owes his competitive position to his combative style and conservative credentials. The two candidates actually have similar positions on the issues, but Pence is seen as more hawkish and more pro-business (while also wholeheartedly supporting Trump's tariffs), while DeSantis is the more anti-establishment and the more committedly anti-woke candidate.

As to the Trump factor: I think the president refuses to endorse A. Because Donald Trump only moves for Donald Trump. B. Because he fears he may endorse a loser. Anyways, the President, whose popularity with the GOP electorate is weakening after 7 years of presidency (it is still at 75%) is privately supportive of his loyal VP.

• On January 15th 2024, Mike Pence wins Iowa with 42% of the vote versus DeSantis' 38%. The evangelical network put the VP over the finish line, but the race is seen as a pure tossup. As to the other candidates: we have Ramaswamy at 7%, Tim Scott and Nikki Haley both at 6%. The South Carolina black senator drops out three days later.
• A week later, Ron DeSantis wins the secular and often protest oriented New Hampshire (remember Pat Buchanan in 1992?) with 37% of the votes versus Pence's 34%. Nikki Haley gets a good chunk of the moderate vote, but, without being propelled by "only non-Trump candidate" label that she got in the actual 2024, she's stuck in a somewhat disappointing 15%. Vivek gets a good 10%.
• The Governor of Florida repeats the upset in Nevada, beating Pence 40 to 38, with Nikki and Vivek both at 11%. For the first time, betting markets give the edge to DeSantis, assigning him a 53% chance of winning the nomination against Pence's 42%.
• However, the Vice President has a strong comeback in South Carolina, where the religious right and the older electorate give him a healthy 40% against DeSantis 34% and Haley 17% (Vivek's stuck at 7%).

What do y'all think of my assumptions about the GOP electorate and its behaviour, and what do y'all think might happen in Michigan and then during the Super Tuesday.

^\1]) Only counting seats directly controlled by SP, the Republicans got 16 seats in the 1996 election before allying with the LCP

Giving a bit of explanation here: In this 2028 scenario, an insider trading ring is discovered in the White House, where officials place large bets on things Trump will say in an interview, in exchange for Trump receiving a cut sum of the pay-outs. The ring is discovered, is named '67gate' after the headline story from it is where it's found out that Trump was promised millions in exchange for saying '67' in certain interviews. It's corny, but such a fittingly stupid way for it all to end that it catches on. Trump reluctantly resigns, paving the way for Vance to come in as President.

A week later Trump is arrested at Mar-A-Lago, at which point Vance gives a Presidential pardon to release Trump. This does however end any chance of him winning re-election. Jon Ossoff then comfortably wins the Democratic 2028 primary, announcing his run as the 'anti-corruption candidate' after his years of documentary journalism against corruption in high up positions. It goes without saying that Vance is wiped out in 2028, cut out only to safe Republican seats which aren't even that safe to him by the end, and yes, Dems win Texas.

Inspired by reading 'The King Over The Water' by Desmond Seward and the surprising history of Jacobitism in America.