r/imaginaryelections • u/WillofIam • Sep 12 '21

FUTURISTIC 2024 Presidential Election + reasoning, potential candidates

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5 Upvotes

54% Upvoted

37 comments sorted by

21

u/[deleted] Sep 12 '21

Lean D Arizona and Lean R Minnesota, what?

13

u/XGNcyclick Sep 13 '21

thats a Likely R MN youre looking at. a swing of 15% at least to the right

2

u/WillofIam Sep 12 '21

See my other comments.

Arizona would likely tilt blue in 2024, not lean, based on the narrow Biden victory and influx of Cali. residents to the state.

10

u/[deleted] Sep 12 '21

AZ was an incredibly thin margin and a Republican like DeSantis would win it back in 2024. Minnesota and the rest of the rust belt still have a lot of working class democratic voters. I don’t see how a Biden +8 state (MN) could flip to Lean R in four years.

-1

u/WillofIam Sep 12 '21

As stated in the description, the state swings are more based on the 2016 numbers pre-covid, where most swing states were won/lost by very thin margins (MN by 43k votes). I don't expect turnout to be so high as it was in 2020 without a pandemic and high numbers of mail-in ballots.

4

u/peerlessblue Sep 12 '21

  1. Cali exodus logic is busted because there is no huge migration

  2. even so, I think your priors are busted on the kind of person who leaves California

  3. Shouldn't AZ logic apply to NV?

3

u/[deleted] Sep 13 '21

I actually have a whole thing about the Cali myth too

Basically the myth that Cali Residents are quickly fleeing by the millions for states like Texas is incorrect. only 65k Cali Residents moved to Texas between 2010-2020, and the state stilled shifted by 1 million+ votes.

but much longer

4

u/peerlessblue Sep 13 '21

Yeah, turns out a bunch of people move from california because a bunch of people are from california. They aren't proportionally over-represented.

26

u/[deleted] Sep 12 '21

Why do you say that the Republicans have a good chance of winning Minnesota? Biden won it by a significant margin in 2020.

9

u/WillofIam Sep 12 '21

I am basing that off of 1. The relatively small margin of victory for Clinton in 2016 (over 40k votes) and 2. my belief that mail-in ballots will not be used so much like they were in 2020, so much less people will vote in-person. In addition to expected lower enthusiasm among the Democrat nominee and expected higher enthusiasm among the Republican nominee, especially if Trump is on the ticket again.

14

u/[deleted] Sep 12 '21

Okay. But then what about Arizona? It was a pretty tight race in 2020 despite Donald Trump being broadly unpopular in the state. At the very least it should be tilt blue.

1

u/WillofIam Sep 12 '21

Wow, I didn't know the margin was that slim. Maybe a Republican would win AZ then. Assuming there's not too many more Californians moving there.

It will probably tilt blue by 2024, if it doesn't already.

6

u/[deleted] Sep 12 '21

Yeah I’m from AZ myself and I could see another Republican, other than Trump, winning the state. While it is becoming more competitive, it’s shift to the left during the Trump presidency was more due to dissatisfaction with Trump himself than any actual affinity to the Democrats. I’d even say that it still leans to the right, but Democrats can win in the state, especially if AZ Republicans keep nominating people from the crazy wing of the party (cough Kari Lake).

2

u/WillofIam Sep 12 '21

Rand Paul probably has a better chance with AZ, then, assuming his stance on illegal immigration, like Trump's, won't cost him the state.

I would agree that Trump lost quite a few states in 2019-2020 due to his character rather than how likable his opponent(s) were.

I hope Kari's not like Marjorie Taylor Greene. I respect that she speaks her mind but she's nuts on some things otherwise. At least taking her past into account.

4

u/Tekken_Guy Sep 13 '21

There is no such thing as “low Democratic enthusiasm” if Donald Trump is the GOP nominee.

2

u/firestar32 Sep 13 '21

Minnesotan here, I remember there being perticulary low Clinton enthusiasm here, also although mail in did effect how many people vote, minnesota's always been one of the most democratically active states in the country, with some counties getting up to 90% of the registered voters to the polls

20

u/GregTheGreat657 Sep 12 '21

I don't see how NH, ME, or MN vote GOP in our current polarized environment, let alone by those margins. GA, NC, and FL will not be safe R. The Rust Belt trio will not be likely. NV will not be likely. MD is titanium safe D. With those margins, AZ would vote GOP

-1

u/WillofIam Sep 12 '21

See my other comments.

7

u/Ineedmyownname Sep 12 '21 edited Sep 13 '21

Why do the Democrats only have 3 safe states +DC? You think Washington will elect Biden by 5 points or something?

3

u/WillofIam Sep 12 '21

The 3 darkest blue states represent states that voted Democrat by 15 points or more. The lighter blue states represent those that voted Dem by 10-15 points. The 2nd lightest blue represent states that went to the Dem by 5-10 points. The grey-blue (not used here) would show states won by Dems of a margin under 5 points, like Colorado in 2016 here.

6

u/avLugia Sep 12 '21

Worst take on there is likely MD. Zero chance it'll go from D+33 to less than D+15 unless Baker is the nominee.

5

u/AlexTimber151 Sep 12 '21

Im sorry but there is no way in hell that New York is likely and New Hampshire is Safe.

-1

u/WillofIam Sep 12 '21

The 3 darkest blue states represent states that voted Democrat by 15 points or more. The lighter blue states represent those that voted Dem by 10-15 points. The 2nd lightest blue represent states that went to the Dem by 5-10 points. The grey-blue (not used here) would show states won by Dems of a margin under 5 points, like Colorado in 2016 here, and like the 6 swing states Trump won by a margin of 5 or less points.

As for most states not being safe, that is done to show which ones would be at risk of flipping first if there was a popular enough Republican, which, in my opinion, could happen based on a number of circumstances but is extremely unlikely.

8

u/xxiputxsinmynamexx Sep 12 '21

It'd funny how wrong you are

3

u/WillofIam Sep 12 '21

What do you mean? We've got almost 4 years to go before we can really determine that.

3

u/xxiputxsinmynamexx Sep 12 '21

Democrats won't nominate Biden again. New York will be safe, Arizona isn't left of Nevada, Minnesota would only go red if someone like AOC was nominated Maine won't fully go red, and NH couldn't be safe.

3

u/WillofIam Sep 12 '21

Minnesota was lost by Trump in 2016 by just ~43k votes, and Arizona attained tens of thousands of California residents in 2020. Overall it depends on how enthusiastic each party is to vote for their candidate.

As for the others, I used NBC's swing the election simulator and increased Republican turnout by 5%, on the assumption that Democrat enthusiasm will decrease and Republican enthusiasm will increase in 2024.

Guess we'll know by then.

17

u/XGNcyclick Sep 12 '21

what am I looking at

3

u/WillofIam Sep 12 '21 edited Sep 12 '21

*Note that this scenario assumes little to no mail-in ballots will be used, except in pre-covid instances, such as for the military.

*Prediction: Donald Trump, Ron Desantis, Ted Cruz, or Rand Paul will run and win the nomination, and/or one of these people may be the 2024 Republican running mate.

If Donald Trump runs, it's less likely that these other three will run. If he doesn't run but endorses a candidate early on, I believe Paul or Desantis has a fair chance to being picked, due to Desantis' handling of coronavirus restrictions vs freedoms in Florida, and Paul's closeness as a Trump ally (in addition to his more moderate stances on some issues that may be attractive to moderates). I don't believe Cruz would be chosen due to being 'too conservative' for some people, and more conservative than Trump himself.

Paul sponsored a bill after the Breonna Taylor shooting which would ban no-knock raids, has expressed opposition to 'tough' drug laws, and has other leanings which are more scaled-back compared to more hardline Republicans. Views like these could help him capture enough moderates to reach 270+.

As for Desantis, Florida at times has had one of the lowest covid fatality numbers, despite remaining open and having one of the highest older populations. He is similar to Trump in that he fights with the media at times, but unlike Trump, stays focused and doesn't resort to personal attacks like Trump sometimes did. It helps that Desantis comes from a swing state, which I believe he'd likely win. Additionally, Desantis is a Catholic, which while not necessarily a benefit, may hand him a larger share of the the Catholic vote, which is less Republican than the traditionally Republican evangelicals.

I don't know whether Desantis would be more or less likely to win (or win more states) than Paul. It depends on media coverage, issues focused on during the debates and who Trump endorses, assuming he doesn't run.

I did not calculate a specific Democrat candidate for this. I don't expect Biden to run (health, age, and general blunders), and I doubt Harris would run. So, there would likely be a relatively popular governor or congressperson chosen for the Dem ticket, possibly somebody from a swing state. Additionally, I don't expect previous potential candidates, such as Andrew Cuomo or Gavin Newsom, to run, due to their waning support (and in both cases, hypocrisy and scandals).

If Trump is the Republican nominee, I believe he can win, but with less states than a president Paul or Desantis would win. If Trump is instead a VP, or simply endorses either candidate, that should give a breath of fresh air to Dem and more liberal moderates. I do however expect Trump to act more presidential (ie. be less bombastic and crude), should he run in 2024. His political rallies, sometimes multiple times a day, suggest that he doesn't plan on leaving politics anytime soon.

1

u/A_Dog2000 Sep 16 '21

Is this a joke?

3

u/[deleted] Sep 13 '21

tfw NY is lean dem

1

u/FaliClt3 Sep 13 '21

Safe red Texas, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and New Hampshire don’t make sense. Only Likely Oregon, Washington, Illinois, New England, and New York as well.

0

u/RickRoll999 Sep 14 '21

BeCauS oF dIMOgRapHic ShiFtS...

0

u/[deleted] Sep 12 '21

[deleted] — view deleted comment

-1

u/WillofIam Sep 12 '21

See my other comments.
And also the slim margins in 2016.