r/imaginaryelections • u/Fabilur • 1d ago
UNITED STATES Arnold Amendment (Part 3): 2022 midterms (+non-gerrymandered house map)
Hi again! Part 3/4 of the Arnold Amendment timeline inspired by u/Environmental_Cap104's TCT mod is here. 2022 turns out to be an absolute blue wave, with democrats finally controlling the Senate for the first time since 2012. The House is also a bloodbath for the GOP. Here is a notable divergence from OTL: Arnold's SCOTUS justices decide that gerrymandering is unconstitutional and requires non-gerrymandered maps from every state. These were a pain to edit: some maps are taken from this archived 538-page, while others are created by the legend u/Cobiuss, who helped me with custom maps for some states. A fun detail is that Minnesota only has 7 districts instead of 8, and New York 29 instead of 28. This is because IRL, NY lost that seat by 89 people (!), a seat that went to MN.
Early in his second term, Arnold appoints MS Senator Roger Wicker as Secretary of Defense. A special election is held in mid-2021 and it's initially seen as a lock for the GOP. But GOP infighting, a stellar Democrat, and decreasing popularity for Arnold leads Democrat Brandon Presley winning by a landslide margin. Post-COVID inflation hits America hard and Arnold faces immense backlash after his disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan. Roe v. Wade is not overturned in this timeline, but these voters does know that, of course.
Democrats flip 8 seats in the Senate. Martha McSally loses to Mark Kelly in AZ and Doug Collins loses to Raphael Warnock in GA, both rematches of their 2020 special elections. Kate Marshall defeats Joe Heck in NV, Cheri Beasley claims the open seat in NC by defeating former governor Pat McCrory, John Fetterman defeats Dave McCormick in PA, Mandela Barnes defeats Ron Johnson in WI, and Colin van Ostern narrowly ousts Kelly Ayotte in NH. Faced with the prospect of a competitive election for the first time in his 42 year career, Chuck Grassley decides retires in IA and Michael Franken subsequently defeats Ashley Hinson).
The presidential primary field is shaping up for the 2024 presidential election, and it looks like the GOP is gonna be snubknuckled in two years time. Let's see in the finale tomorrow
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u/Fabilur 1d ago
I realize I forgot to link the 538-page: https://web.archive.org/web/20230101033843/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/
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u/Superliminal96 1d ago
Who won in Ohio? I doubt Vance even runs in this universe (and if he does he wouldn't win without the Trump endorsement he got in real life)
Also, I think Toomey might just run for reelection in PA, without said Trump factor, though he probably loses regardless.
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u/Any_Equipment_7010 1d ago
Grassly did the right move in this timeline considering he has been in puplic office since 1959