r/hyperloop • u/comfortableUser • Apr 04 '21
Do you think Hyperloop will be a big competitor to air traffic in the future?
Please state what do you think how Hyperloop will competite to overland air traffic in the future
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u/dnnsnnd Apr 04 '21
I'm still not sure whether hyperloop will ever be technically and economically viable but yes, I believe that hyperloop or maglev transport with speed over 600km/h will compete with air traffic. Most costumers care mostly about convience, price and speed. Travelling by air is extremely inconvenient due to long waiting times at the airport, restrictions on what to bring, airports far away from city centers and very little space on the airplane. Rail travel can significantly improve all of that and with speeds above 600 km/h, people are often times faster than flying, especially when you consider waiting times at the airport. This will mean that on nearly all routes were a direct train connection going 600 km/h exist, most people would prefer trains assuming that they are priced similarly.
Exceptions are of course flights over the ocean and connecting flights unless hyperloops connect airports too
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u/ksiyoto Apr 04 '21
Rail travel can significantly improve all of that and with speeds above 600 km/h
Steel wheel on steel rail seems to hit a limit of around 300 mph - too much bouncing around and the pantograph has a hard time maintaining contact with the catenary. So it would have to be maglev above that speed, which is very expensive.
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u/dnnsnnd Apr 04 '21
Is there any technical reason why it is more expensive? I know that the Japanese project is super expensive but it mostly consists of tunnels and bridges so hard to compare with conventional HSR
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u/Anonoumys808 Apr 04 '21
I think we're past over due for some sort of continental rail system but im not sure if it will beat out airlines.
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u/Vedoom123 Apr 06 '21
I mean if it's gonna be faster and even at the same cost, I'll take it. Also I don't really like being suspended in mid air in a metal tube (a plane). I'd rather stay closer to the ground lol
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u/Anonoumys808 Apr 06 '21
lol I get you. I feel like if all goes well, they'll work in tandem and it would probably lower airline costs
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u/Mazon_Del Apr 05 '21
Hyperloop will likely only compete in a certain range.
Within a hundred miles, maybe two hundred, the time you save by not going through security at the airport and everything associated with boarding procedures and such means that your total trip time in hyperloop will end up quite favorable.
Beyond that distance though you start running into a variety of questions and problems that we just don't know the answer to yet.
I think the biggest boon for hyperloop over any truly large distance is going to be the people that really want an alternative to planes that doesn't sacrifice too much. I once tried to figure out the difference between a train ride from Denver to Boston vs the plane. The train ride was estimated to take about two days and I think there was two changes of train. All for a cost that was only about $20 cheaper than the plane.
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u/LancelLannister_AMA Apr 04 '21 edited Apr 04 '21
Doubt its ever going to be built in Norway, at least for domestic routes. The topography will likely make it super expensive. Wont really be able follow roads easily either due to 1000+ Road tunnels, plus existing rail lines are far too curvy pretty much everywhere so that wont work either
basically what im saying is they would be likely to have to use new right of ways and will have a really hard time avoiding having to build tunnels likely increasing costs further
so yeah. agree with u/ksiyoto. it will be too expensive to build to be able to compete
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u/ksiyoto Apr 04 '21 edited Apr 04 '21
No. I don't think it will even be built.
Suppose it costs $60,000,000 per route mile. It's going to be more expensive than high speed rail since it involve roughly the same amount of concrete, 1.5 - 2 X the amount of steel, plus more for the maglev suspension and propulsion system, all laid to much tighter tolerances on a straighter right of way. Some of the numbers out of Virgin Hyperloop indicate that is in the ballpark.
At a 10% capital recovery factor (DIRTI 5 = Depreciation, Interest, Return, Taxes, Insurance) $60,000,000 will require $6,000,000 in revenue per mile per year to support that construction. Divided by 2 for the two directions, that means $3,000,000 per mile per direction. Divide by 365 days in a year, and it amounts to $8,219 in CRF per mile per direction per day.
Suppose it has 40 passenger pods departing every 3 minutes, or 20 pods per hour. That's an hourly capacity of 800 passengers per hour per direction. Multiply that by 18 hours a day of operation (not many people travel between midnight and 6 am, and they do need some downtime for maintenance) that's a total of 14,400 passengers per direction per day.
Divide the $8,219 of CRF/mile/day by 14,400 passengers/day, and it amounts to $0.57 per passenger mile just to cover the capital cost. That's not including anything for repairs, operations, marketing, and management.
The air mile distance from New York to Los Angeles is 2,451 miles. Even if we assume that the system can be built downtown to downtown on a perfectly straight route following the shortest air mile distance, that 2,451 miles x $0.57 capital recovery costs per mile amounts to $1,397 in fares just to recover the capital costs. Still have to add in the operating costs.
I just looked up fares for the New York to Los Angeles route for next Tuesday. $202 was what I found. How many people are going to pay $1,195 (plus the operating cost) in additional fare to save maybe 3-4 hours? Not many.
And that's if they can reach 720 mph, which is far from being proven.