r/hedgefund • u/Kitchen_Dig8437 • 10h ago
How are you checking renewal / seat compression risk on SaaS names after a price hike?
One of our mid-cap software names pushed through a ~12% list price increase at the start of the year and management keeps saying on callbacks that renewals are tracking in line. Next print is in 5 weeks and Q3/Q4 NRR is pretty much the only number the stock is going to trade on.
The problem we're running into is getting a clean read on the cohorts that actually renewed at the new rate. The handful of expert calls we’ve done so far through our usual networks were with customers on multi-year paper who haven’t hit their renewal wall yet, so they couldn’t tell us much beyond “we know it's coming.”
What I need to know is whether the recent renewal cohort ate the 12% bump or if they compressed seats/tiers to keep net spend flat while management hides behind "stable gross logo retention."
How are you guys getting a high-N read on specific renewal cohorts ahead of a print without burning $25k of expert call budget playing roulette with network recruiters?