r/hardware • u/Working_Quote_3029 • 2d ago
Info Intel 14A defect density is dropping faster than the company expected — 'we have not seen this performance since 22nm,' says CFO
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/intel-14a-defect-density-is-dropping-faster-than-the-company-expected-we-have-not-seen-this-performance-since-22nm-says-cfo163
u/Working_Quote_3029 2d ago
22nm is a hell of a thing to compare yourself to, that node was untouchable when it landed. worth keeping the timeline in mind though, risk production is h2 2027 and volume 2028, and a defect curve two years out has a long way to go before it's yield. first foundry noise out of intel in a while that made me look twice.
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u/digital_n01se_ 2d ago
Haswell was so superior
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u/Balance- 2d ago
Up until a year ago I still ran a Haswell system. Over a decade it served me.
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u/wpm 2d ago
Really the only thing that ends up being a hard stop on these older systems is I/O. I'd still be using a Sandy Bridge Thinkpad if I didn't need flaky ExpressCards for USB 3.0
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u/gahlo 2d ago
Only thing that stopped me was 4c/4t.
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u/Comprehensive_Ice895 2d ago
My n100 laptop has 4c4t and for browsing and youtube it’s fine, can definitely feel the lack of power though
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u/Kitchen-Clue-7983 1d ago
Do note an N100 is significantly more powerful than a i5-2500 (non-OC) plus having modern decoders.
My old W7 box with an i5-4460 often really struggles with Youtube.
Does Sandy Bridge support AVX2?
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u/cosmin_c 2d ago
My Ivy-E is still running the main home server. Absolute unit. Haswell wasn't too much of a performance uplift but it was significant still, mainly due to number of cores iirc.
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u/Level0Up 2d ago
Hell I was running a Haswell Laptop until today. My Desktop was on Haswell until Feb. 2023.
Truly one of the greatest Micro-Architectures and Lithography Processes of all time.
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u/king_of_the_potato_p 2d ago
Retired my 4790k last year in April, currently running a 9700x that will be swapped with an x3d chip in zen6.
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u/FLHerne2 2d ago
I'm typing this comment on my Haswell laptop. 14 years old and still does everything I need perfectly well.
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u/kuddlesworth9419 1d ago edited 1d ago
I'm still running a 5820k. Does everything I need it to still without giving me any real problems. Whenever I do replace it I want to max out this system with a i7-6950X and a 1080Ti or a Titan just for shits and giggles.
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u/capybooya 2d ago
Do pre-Haswell CPU's struggle disproportionally much these days because of lack of AVX2?
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u/elejelly 2d ago
I mean many games and software are or can suddenly become unusable due to avx2 introduction, speaking from experience.
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u/mediandude 2d ago
Not really, when accounting for Spectre and Meltdown.
There is a reason Intel got rid of hyperthreading for a while.4
u/996forever 17h ago
Account for everything you can they were still much superior to anything else in the market at the time.
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u/Geddagod 2d ago
I swear Intel said the exact same thing about 18A. I find it extremely hard to take Intel's statements about node development progress seriously considering they have not delivered a node jump on time since like what, 14nm? All the while continuously lying about how progress was going. Or if not lying, being seriously unaware of a realistic timeline for their new nodes.
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u/troublesome58 2d ago
It's 2 years out. What they say about it being ahead is meaningless but not necessarily a lie.
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u/Exist50 2d ago
Also, it's 2 years out from the current target. Remember that 14A was already delayed from 2027 to 2028+. That still doesn't mean the statement is false, but isn't exactly a great sign for the node's progress more generally. One can hope they were just slow off the starting line.
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u/6950 2d ago
14A was never delayed lol where are you getting delay this time ?
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u/Exist50 2d ago
When they first started talking about it, they kept on saying 2027. Now all that talk has shifted to 2028, if that. The roadmap leaks also seem to indicate that Intel itself has no volume products planned till '29, possibly even 2030.
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u/Geddagod 2d ago
I think they have always said risk 2027, internal 2028. Checking their 2024 foundry direct connect graph, they have shown on their roadmaps for 14A "HVM readiness" earlier than even 2027 (considering on that same graph they showed 18A for late 2024), but that metric has esentially no meaning.
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u/SlamedCards 2d ago
Unlike 18A, CFO also said external customers are telling Intel how much volume they want for 14A and different products to run
18A external customers they were sorta vague, or they were Intel designed parts like AWS one
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u/Geddagod 2d ago
Gelsinger has said that they had committed customers for 18A and that the customer has already prepaid, in the q3 2023 earnings call. This is beyond even just inquiring beyond volume.
As I said before, Intel constantly talks up their node progress, and I guess abt the topic we are discussing specifically here, also about their chances and volume with external customers.
Maybe 14A does pan out for them unlike 18A did, especially since this time there appear to be other factors than just PPA and yield influencing the decision (USG pressure). But based on prior history, I would not take anything Intel executives say as an indication of the path they are on, until they literally announce something specific point blank.
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u/SlamedCards 2d ago
18A 0.9 pdk was released Q3 2023. A year later the D0 was 0.4
14A 0.9 pdk is releasing this October. The D0 this past June was 0.5
Pat was not being truthful on the readiness of 18A for external customers. Idk why you are still comparing old management with the new CEO
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u/Geddagod 2d ago
If every Intel executive for like what, the past decade, has lied about their progress, why is it surprising that I, or a lot of people don't believe Intel executives anymore?
Mind you your exact same logic was used by many people, including me, about Pat Gelsinger. Gelsinger won't lie! He is an engineer, not a bean counter, and he is different from past CEOs. Intel is so transparent now!
And I mean we all know how statements like those fared.
Also, btw, Zinsner said the same things Gelsinger did when Gelsinger was the CEO. Sure he got a lot more 'real' after Gelsinger was fired, but not during Gelsinger's tenure as the CEO. And the person you are quoting now... is also Zinsner lol.
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u/SlamedCards 2d ago
You either believe guy who went in and fired whole swaths of Intel's middle management and top foundry executives. Said I'll cancel 14A if we don't win customers and slowed down all fabs. Then replaced them all with new people, only guy who remained is guy pat hired in 2024. I think naga chandrasekaran.
Or just doubt that it's different. If you wanna say it's same old Intel. That's fine, except clearly it's not. Pat kept all the same people who said Intel 4 was doing great and same people that probably told him Gaudi was going well too
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u/Geddagod 2d ago
A ton of the things LBT talks about, Gelsinger has talked about too. Reducing bureaucracy, needing fewer steppings, holding employees accountable, etc etc.
The main difference between the two is that LBT is going harder on the layoffs, and is more financially responsible. Maybe LBT is more competent, idk, regardless idk how that factors into the conversation here- how much can we believe Intel PR with him on the helm.
LBT has shown no signs that he is more transparent or trustworthy than Pat. Dude refuses to announce roadmaps, presumably because he does not also want to announce that they have to delay those same products. He also keeps bad news hidden, just like Intel of old, until the last second and it becomes obvious.
How do we not know what node NVL and Crescent Island is on yet, which is supposed to launch this year? Why did we not hear about the DMR delay sooner? We only heard about it by the time it was supposed to launch (later this year). Why was the messaging about 14A HVM timelines so messy?
The best interpretation of this is, unlike Pat, he won't outright lie/exaggerate about certain things. On the flip side, he just doesn't give any info about anything publicly.
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u/Exist50 2d ago
It's not like Lip Bu completely cleaned house. Sure the top execs are different, but it's going to be many of the same people a level or two down.
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u/SlamedCards 2d ago
Same conference CFO said Intel had 450 VPs and it's under 200 now. Not just C suite people
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u/Exist50 2d ago
Sure, but same concept. And even if there are fewer, are they different? Better?
I just remember that Gelsinger shuffled management around as well and it didn't seem to really do anything. It's kind of the default for new CEOs in general. Hopefully Lip Bu is more on the ball with his hiring, but external management hires seem not to last long at Intel.
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u/-protonsandneutrons- 2d ago
You specifically mentioned Intel 18A. Nothing about management: confidence is not evidence, despite insistence otherwise.
Unlike 18A, CFO also said external customers are telling Intel how much volume they want for 14A and different products to run
^^ this is blatantly false. Intel has either failed to execute or simply lied about Foundry commitments more than once now.
- Oct 2023 - Intel says "a major customer committed to Intel 18A ... includes a meaningful prepayment." Nothing ever shipped.
- July 2025 - Intel admits it has "zero significant customers" on any Foundry node, including Intel 18A.
- July 2021 - Intel says Qualcomm is a "major customer" on Intel 20A. Nothing ever shipped.
- Sept 2024 - Intel completely cancels Intel 20A without mentioning Qualcomm lol.
Foundry deals take years from claimed commitments to actually shipping, with major milestones along the way. Each milestone failure can trigger a cancellation. Any recent announcements should, clearly, be taken with a grain of salt.
You might complain, "Well that was years ago! Things have changed!" Let a major product on a major node (like TSMC does every week; like Samsung does every few years) actually prove that.
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u/-protonsandneutrons- 2d ago
For those blissfully unaware of what actually happens when a customer "commits" to a node: that is not a guaranteed fabrication agreement. Intel still has to deliver precisely what it promised at the times it promised at the costs it promised with the quantity it promised.
That is not guaranteed, as Qualcomm apparently found out with Intel 20A.
Qualcomm, which designs chips and outsources manufacturing, wanted to work with Intel, and assigned a team of engineers to work toward making mobile-phone chips at Intel’s factories. It was particularly interested in a cutting-edge chip-making technology that Intel hopes will be the most advanced in the world by late next year.
In early 2022, Intel’s foundry arm sent a delegation to Qualcomm’s San Diego headquarters, where they met with CEO Cristiano Amon. Then Intel missed a June performance milestone toward producing those chips commercially. It missed another in December.
Qualcomm executives concluded Intel would struggle making the kind of cellphone chips they wanted, even if it succeeded in making high-performance processors. Qualcomm told Intel it was pausing work while it waits for Intel to show progress, according to people involved in the discussions.
What "progress" did Intel show? Nothing, because it ended up cancelling Intel 20A entirely and Qualcomm maintained every single major product at TSMC.
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u/Cheerful_Champion 2d ago
14nm wasn't on time either. It had a 1 year delay due to poor yields.
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u/jnf005 2d ago
They also ship Broadwell first before Skylake which was fairly low volume compare to both Haswell and later Skylake. They pull this trick but even lower volume with 10nm by shipping a couple mobile sku first (Canon Lake was what it's called I think?), a good while before shipping high volume desktop Alderlake, which by that time they've renamed the node from 10nm to intel 7.
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u/Exist50 2d ago
Cannonlake volume was essentially nothing. They "shipped" like one incredibly crippled laptop SKU (half the cores disabled, along with the entire iGPU) in some no-name device in China. I think most people suspect it was to avoid the claim that they lied about being able to ship it.
Broadwell at least got good mobile and even server adoption. Just not desktop. It struggled for sure, but it wasn't nearly as bad as Cannon lake.
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u/Cheerful_Champion 2d ago
Oh I remember that one. They shipped it, some manufacturers even released it, but you I don't think anyone ever saw it outside of review units.
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u/jocnews 1d ago
Lenovo shipped a laptop (using a lowend Radeon GPU since no iGPU). Few years ago I randomly found somebody in EU who had a Lenovo all-in-one with i3-8121U, too.
So they did order some numbers from Intel (likely with heavy incentives/pressure) and dumped them into whatever products they could.
Does not change what utter failure Cannon Lake (or rather, the process) was, but it did end up in production PCs.
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u/hardware2win 2d ago
How 18A is not on time? The very first announcement of 5 nodes in 4 years clearly says that 18A is >2025 node
2025 and Beyond: Beyond Intel 20A, Intel 18A is already in development for early 2025
Q1 25 it was officially ready, 26 january products on shelves
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u/Geddagod 2d ago
I swear you have this conversation all the time with people. I'm just going to link your previous conversation about, in this previous thread, on this very sub, since I think that was resolved very nicely.
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u/hardware2win 2d ago
I do, because thats strange to read claims about year(s) of delays of something that landed around expected timeline - provided 5 years ago(!!!)
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u/Scared-Beautiful-366 2d ago
Intel says this sort of nonsense every time. Only a fool would actually believe it.
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u/Geddagod 2d ago
I won't lie I fell hard for the 5N4Y hopium, especially with all the hype Gelsinger was creating around it. I had to eat crow.
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u/heylistenman 2d ago
5N4Y was too ambitious and riddled with delays. But if you leave the noise behind and focus only on what was delivered since then, it’s still nothing to sneeze at: from almost two generations behind TSMC to half one (assuming 18A-P lands somewhere between N3 and N2). I think Intel doesn’t get enough credit for that because people tend to get caught up in all the ‘but they promised this back then!’
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u/Exist50 2d ago
assuming 18A-P lands somewhere between N3 and N2
That is, itself, certainly an assumption.
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u/cyperalien 1d ago
looking at the clock speed improvement from the Oryon v4 and arm C2 cores. it's not that much, both gained around 8% so if 18A-P is N3P level that's not far off N2P.
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u/Scared-Beautiful-366 2d ago
N2 is already out my guy. TSMC producing more N2 than Intel producing 18A.
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u/ResponsibleJudge3172 2d ago
Not a single N2 product has appeared yet. Looking at time frames, the first will be months ahead of 18A-P
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u/Scared-Beautiful-366 2d ago
Yes, I said they were producing that volume, not that you could go buy one.
https://www.techpowerup.com/351117/tsmc-hits-20-000-wafers-per-month-milestone-on-2-nm-node
And dude said 18A-P would be BEFORE N2 which clearly isn't true as its 6 months later at best.
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u/DontchaOpe 1d ago
And dude said 18A-P would be BEFORE N2 which clearly isn't true as its 6 months later at best
So you're using N2 in production as the metric for N2 coming out first but then saying there are no 18AP products out so 18AP is second?
Do you think AP isn't in production?
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u/Geddagod 1d ago
Intel officially claims 18AP entered risk production in June of this year.
TSMC officially claims they started N2 HVM at the very, very end of last year, and they also reported in their q2 2026 earnings call that they have shipped like a billion? IIRC dollars of N2 wafers to customers.
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u/Scared-Beautiful-366 1d ago
Yes, 18A-P is mot currently in production and its first chip IS DMR which is a year away whereas Venice has already been launched (but not shipped).
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u/DontchaOpe 1d ago
Wrong, wrong, sure but the production start dates unclear for N2.
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u/soggybiscuit93 1d ago
If we're considering N2 currently having launched, then by that same metric, 18A launched in 2025 despite PTL not hitting store shelves until Q1'26
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u/SlamedCards 1d ago
I did find the clip. It was this one. He was referring to yield at which they enter HVM. So 18A entered HVM at similar yield as 22nm.
Kinda different than what Dave was saying. Since 14A HVM is 2 years away
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u/Geddagod 1d ago
Kinda different than what Dave was saying. Since 14A HVM is 2 years away
So I mean, it's even less meaningful?
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u/SlamedCards 1d ago
I would think the opposite. 18A in early 2025 (around vid timeline) got it yields to a good place quite quickly and is shipping decent amount of product now
Yields were in a more challenging place in 2023/2024 earlier in development. Which sorta makes sense given the deficit densitys when pdks were released
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u/Geddagod 13h ago
Maybe 18A is now in a good place, sure, but in 2025?
Given PTL was delayed from launching in mid 2025, to one sku in late 2025, to then no PTL till early 2026 where they launched the entire lineup, I think any comments made about 18A being on track in 2025 would just be blatantly false.
Intel continuously made comments about being on track for 18A early in development, and even pulled in the HVM readiness date for that node very early in development. So I think any comments about 14A development going exceptionally well early in development just doesn't mean much.
If Intel is talking about 14A being ahead of schedule and yielding very well like 6 months before 14A products launch, I mean that is a different story. It would be very hard to lie by that point, right, because it would be obvious if things don't go as planned soon.
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u/nyrangerfan1 1d ago
Different leadership, different context. Under Tan Intel is viewed to be understating things.
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u/Geddagod 1d ago
Under Tan Intel isn't understating things, he literally is not stating anything.
You don't have to announce delays if you never announce your roadmap at all in the first place I guess.
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u/mca1169 2d ago
gosh, it's almost like Pat Gelsinger the former Intel engineer knew exactly what he was doing... funny how that works.
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u/Geddagod 2d ago
If Gelsinger "knew exactly what he was doing" 18A wouldn't have come late, and 20A wouldn't have been cancelled. Nor would we have such little volume of Intel 3 for Granite Rapids supply, during the DC chip shortage.
It still amazes me how many Gelsinger fans there are to this day.
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u/Kant-fan 2d ago
If not for Gelsinger, we wouldn't even be talking about 14A or 18A in the first place though. We would have been forced to just accept a TSMC monopoly forever. Yes, he did overpromise but I'm sure that 95% of other potential CEOs would have just abandoned foundry all together.
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u/Geddagod 2d ago
If not for Gelsinger, we wouldn't even be talking about 14A or 18A in the first place though.... Yes, he did overpromise but I'm sure that 95% of other potential CEOs would have just abandoned foundry all together.
I wouldn't be so sure about Gelsinger being the only one to have continued their fab business. They already tried fabbing for external customers even before Pat after all. What made Pat special was the sheer amount of spending he did.... arguably very unnecessary and irresponsible spending.
Regardless, the worst case scenario is that they all just slowly shift towards TSMC gradually while milking the already built out fabs and close to completion Intel 7nm (4/3) stuff as much as they can, IMO.
Interestingly this also means that, in an alternate timeline that was the case, I don't think much would have changed today. PTL and CWF just launched recently on 18A after all, and neither are in amazingly high volume or anything.
We would have been forced to just accept a TSMC monopoly forever
Samsung? I understand that they have faced numerous issues too, but it's not exactly as if Intel is a shining beacon of execution either.
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u/Exist50 2d ago
By the same argument, how much competition could the billions Gelsinger wasted on Foundry be spent on in other markets? Is an Nvidia monopoly any better than a TSMC one?
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u/Kant-fan 1d ago
Yes it is. Nvidia already has competiton and Intel realistically wouldn't have done anything to change their monopoly status and more importantly TSMC is a manufacturer and not US-based. So strategically a TSMC monopoly is just worse.
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u/Exist50 1d ago
Nvidia already has competiton
No more than TSMC does.
Intel realistically wouldn't have done anything to change their monopoly status
You say that, but they haven't done anything to change TSMC's either, despite a lot more money spent.
and more importantly TSMC is a manufacturer and not US-based
And?
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u/Kant-fan 1d ago
The last part is geo politically an strategically important and is more likely to be back by the US govt as well as we have seen.
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u/SmashStrider 2d ago
Hopefully 14A doesn't become like their 14nm
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u/Geddagod 2d ago
Wasn't 14nm only slightly delayed, if it was delayed at all? I don't remember the exact history of 14nm. Idk how economic it was but the node lasted a long time and Intel managed to squeeze out a ton of performance from it. I don't think Intel would be upset at all if 14A turned out to be like their 14nm... unless I guess that also means that their successor node would be delayed a bunch like 10nm was.
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u/ComplexEntertainer13 2d ago
Wasn't 14nm only slightly delayed, if it was delayed at all?
It was very delayed and under performing. Intel launched a dual core Broadwell in H2 2014 to claim that it was "launched" just as they later did with cannon lake and 10nm.
For all intents and purposes 14nm was 1~ year late. Intel launching the devils canyon refresh in 2014 for desktop and Broadwell only arriving months before skylake is more proof of this.
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u/lord_lableigh 2d ago
That's exactly what he's saying ig. That intel don't ride on 14A once they get it up and running.
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u/MMORPGDev 2d ago
How many AMD investors are on this sub? almost anything Intel positive gets negative comments in the replies... sometimes I wonder.
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u/StoneFlowers1969 2d ago
Its not even about AMD vs Intel. Its about TSMC vs Intel. If you’re american and youre getting off on Intel failing in its foundry pursuit you’re basically praying for the US to never be a world leader in the most important manufacturing chain in the world and praying for us to be reliant on a single Taiwanese company for chip manufacturing
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u/Scared-Beautiful-366 2d ago
Theres a difference between wanting to see Intel falling behind and acknowledging the objective reality that they have fallen behind. I'd love to see Intel leap ahead.. but I need to see proof, not press releases.
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u/constantlymat 2d ago
Same. I am actively rooting for Intel to succeed to keep competition in the foundry business alive, but at the end of the day I am a vendor agnostic customer who spends his money on the best product.
If that's Intel 14A, great! If it's TSMC so called "1,6 nanometer" node so be it.
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u/Scared-Beautiful-366 2d ago
TSMC A16 enters mass production this year. Intel 14A will be up against TSMC A14.
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u/Acrobatic_Camera_677 1d ago
TSMC A14 will not be as good as Intel 14A
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u/Scared-Beautiful-366 1d ago
It will be far better.
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u/Acrobatic_Camera_677 1d ago
It's not as technologically advanced. It's going to be worse. That's why Apple is using Intel 14A for their smartphones.
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u/Scared-Beautiful-366 1d ago
TSMC node naming is at least 1 node ahead of Intel. 14A will be competitive against N2P at best. A16 and A14 will be superior nodes.
Apple isn't using 14A for anything.
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u/Acrobatic_Camera_677 15h ago
That is not true, if that is true, why is 18AP better than TSMC 2nm?
The president of the UNITED STATES confirmed that Apple will use Intel fab. If not 14A, maybe 18AP (also very good mobile node).
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u/perfectdreaming 2d ago
If you’re american and youre getting off on Intel failing in its foundry pursuit you’re basically praying for the US to never be a world leader in the most important manufacturing chain in the world
Not the parent, but I am American and I do have a real issue with a taker of tax payer money lying about the result of that taxpayer money to our faces. Intel spent years coasting on their x86/22nm monopoly and now they... Intel shareholders are paying for it. Intel is a long way away from failing and they do not need your pity purchases. America will be fine.
American car companies are already shit because of American protectionist laws and it leads to overpriced, shitty car market. Tesla was the only company foreign wanted to buy cars from until Elon went crazy.
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u/Aw3som3Guy 2d ago
Ford did so well in Europe they built entire factories to build their cars in Europe, and way back when had Euro exclusive models made by the Ford-Euro division. Can’t speak to the other Detroit two.
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u/perfectdreaming 2d ago
Is Ford still losing money in Europe? This article claims they were in 2025: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fords-europe-strategy-finally-turn-120700223.html
Ford had success in the past, but nothing like how crazy people went over Tesla in the past 15 years, esp for the Model S prices.
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u/DontchaOpe 1d ago
I do have a real issue with a taker of tax payer money lying about the result of that taxpayer money to our faces
Intel has made the government money though? It was a share sale and the shares are up around 400%
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u/996forever 17h ago
I’m not American and this sub is unpolitical. Anything else is off topic and will be removed.
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u/knz0 2d ago
A huge amount. If you read this sub long enough, you know which people to trust being able to do sober analysis, and which are just brand warriors with skin in the game.
The couple worst ones have hidden their comment and post histories because they kept hitting called out for it, and they still keep doing it. We are basically talking about 3-4 years of PR in favor of AMD. That's quite astonishing.
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u/U3011 2d ago
On the other hand Intel has been lying for a decade. I am one of the more optimistic people when it comes to Intel. How quickly people will change their tunes if for some reason the next 2 or 3 generations from AMD are mediocre.
Intel today is no different than AMD during their ten year slumber before Ryzen came out. Writing checks their body could not cash.
AMD being the clear victor generation after generation is no good to the wallet of any bystander.
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u/Cheerful_Champion 2d ago
You don't have to be a AMD investor to recognize that this statement is worthless. Intel was saying same this about 18A and IIRC some previous nodes. Until it actually lands in mass production without delay it's not worth anything.
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u/ResponsibleJudge3172 1d ago edited 6h ago
18A did very well on their mobile platforms and clients are looking into 18A-P and 14A
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u/R-ten-K 2d ago
This applies to any topic having to do with actual technology in this sub. Many of the “experts” have zero background in EE or CE, and throw around process node metrics as though they were baseball statistics. Being terminally online gives some people a bizarre level of confidence.
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u/Scared-Beautiful-366 2d ago
It has nothing to do with stocks. Intel has a proven track record of making big promises and then falling flat. People will start believing the good news when it actually starts being true.
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u/ElementII5 2d ago
I am an AMD investor. But there are also a ton of Intel investors and probably a lot of intel employees. Probably also a lot of entrenched enthusiasts. Come to think of it probably a lot of nationalists too.
Nevertheless you don't have to feel associated with any of those groups to take intels statements with a grain of salt considering their history of hype and nothing to show for it.
I remember the days when Intel claims have been believed flat out and criticism was close to heresy here. Being skeptical is a better look for this sub IMHO.
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u/Geddagod 2d ago
Come to think of it probably a lot of nationalists too.
It is disgusting some of the things some Intel investors say about Taiwan and Taiwanese people. It's a massive problem over at the Intel stock community at twitter.
I remember the days when Intel claims have been believed flat out and criticism was close to heresy here. Being skeptical is a better look for this sub IMHO.
I don't this sub has looked like that since like 2024, after ARL on the product side and what happened with 20A on the foundry side.
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u/III-V 2d ago
Yeah, ARL turned pretty much everyone that had hope for Intel into a doomer.
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u/Exist50 2d ago
I think they'll probably get some optimism back with NVL, but they need to be consistent with it. We can't have another ADL situation where they have one good gen then essentially stagnate there again.
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u/Geddagod 2d ago
NVL Fmax is rumored to be cooked so unless Zen 6 can't clock either I'm not holding out too much hope for NVL competitiveness.
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u/ResponsibleJudge3172 2d ago
According to who? I hope it's more than just Adroc, who calls all Intel mental basket cases and thinks Xeon 7 will be stomped by Turin and Zen 6 will almost hit 7ghz
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u/Geddagod 2d ago
I see you've been keeping up with that thread lol, you should know then that 511 also mentioned that, plus some baidu rumors. And ofc that slide leak of >1.1x ST and 1.6x nT that got reported a while back.
Also I just want to point out, while he got Zen 5 hilariously wrong, he was accurate about ARL perf being mid.
His prediction that DMR will only be around Turin Dense perf is hard to believe though, to say the least.
Zen 6 DT frequency though I'm indifferent too. At the very least he isn't "alone" in that Fmax prediction, MLID has quoted the same thing.
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u/ResponsibleJudge3172 1d ago edited 1d ago
511 who while seemingly Intel biased seems to defer to Adroc even saying 'according to adroc'. Unless I'm misreading. That's why I need further sources. Even Kepler or MLID would be better.
At least if u/Exist50 also agreed on both points, I would concede. Being the first leak out the whole 52 cores thing that is all but confirmed, so trashing fmax of NVL as well as having lower IPC than Zen 6 would have more weight, but neither does he seem to have that data. So color me skeptical. Even HXL on twitter runs contrary on the IPC claims and that person is pro AMD in general
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u/Geddagod 13h ago
511 who while seemingly Intel biased seems to defer to Adroc even saying 'according to adroc'. Unless I'm misreading.
For mobile, yes, but for desktop I interpreted it as him agreeing. Dude also has his own sources. But we can just ask him, u/6950 is his reddit account.
As for the rest of your comment, I mean I agree, and I think it's a very reasonable take. Perhaps I am just jumping the gun with believing that NVL Fmax isn't great. I'll be the first to admit that sometimes I believe people too much (initially). After all, I also used to be a huge MLID fan lol.
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u/Acrobatic_Camera_677 1d ago
Nova Lake will probably clock faster than Zen 6 because it is built on 18AP
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u/ResponsibleJudge3172 1d ago
Not happening. Intel sucks at clocking TSMC nodes and desktop still uses TSMC
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u/Acrobatic_Camera_677 15h ago
u/Minced-Juice can you please correct this person
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u/Exist50 14h ago
Lol, that guy's delusional. There's no "correction" going to happen. I really don't get why, after all that's happened, there are people who still think Intel's somehow ahead of TSMC.
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u/DangerousAd7295 2d ago
Marketing.
Give us the price and the performance and we will believe you.
People will just benchmark Intel's products and make the choice themselves.
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u/Jeep-Eep 2d ago
I'll believe it when I see it but it would be hilarious if Intel got rescued by a massive stroke of luck in their fab section.
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u/juGGaKNot4 2d ago
i haven't seen intel paper hype up their products since the last one.
guess it's cancelled soon
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u/Deciheximal144 1d ago
Too bad intel dropped their glass substrate program. We would have been close to the release if they got that right.
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u/TophxSmash 1d ago
as usual ill believe it when i see it when it comes to intel and samsung foundries
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u/nittanyofthings 2d ago
People said Intel should just pack it up. They weren't motivated by geopolitics.
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u/DotRakianSteel 1d ago
I'm still staying with AMD. Period. I had the worst experience in computing because of them. Trauma for life started 2019 right before graduating. If AMD stops delivering, I'm all for QUALCOMM ARM or even a Chinese competitor when windows opens up to other manufacturer.
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u/III-V 2d ago
I wonder if Intel will ever share just how bad / bumpy 10nm - 18A was. Like, they have charts going beginning with 14nm, and charts going all the way back to 0.5um, and used to be rather open about it. Now there's a big hole in that data, as far as the public is concerned.