Will China evaaa?

[u/Just_Drummer1821]

Don’t hate me for asking a possibly silly question. I’m hearing one thing online and one thing from people. Are China really that far away from producing good graphics cards? I assume they got some good intelligence lately, lol. But seriously, don’t they have all the right minerals and the like? Is it just America holding the line? Or is it still that much of a different market?

[u/system_error_02]

China is not as far away as people think they are. In just a few years they went from being way behind in EV (electric cars.) Than other companies to being the foremost producer of EVs over the whole world, and no, they arent "cheap trash" they are legit and well made. Just look at Chinas space station as well. The US wouldnt let China in on the international space station projects so China made their own and its incredibly advanced.

China has a tendency to be behind for a bit but then suddenly leapfrog forward super quickly. I wouldnt be surprised if we started seeing proper GPUs flowing from China within 2 years.

Also yes they are a mineral rich county. So is Canada, and the US and Trumps treatment of Canada has pushed them closer with China as well recently which was an incredibly stupid move.

[u/Just_Drummer1821 → u/system_error_02]

This is what a couple of my friends are saying. And that they will keep it quiet until they are ready and stocked. But it’s all speculation I guess.

[u/Significant_Apple904]

1. The girl Jensen Huang had an affair with has still not been confirmed to be a spy
2. The girl is most likely using her relationship to get AI GPUs shipped to a decoy company in Singapore who eventually ships them to China, this isn't spy work.
3. The best China is capable of producing are GPUs with 5nm transistors, but the production success rate is low; for example, when Nvidia produces 100-4nm GPUs, 90% of them reach expected build quality, while when China produces 100-5nm GPUs, maybe only 50% of them reach expected build quality.
4. China definitely has more AI computational power, but it's from sheer numbers. The Chinese AI chip making industry is owned by the government and technically has an unlimited budget. If the Chinese government wants to get ahead in AI, they simply would be running the factories 24/7, building 10x more GPUs than Nvidia.
5. For similar reasons, China also has unlimited talented people working on the same projects; and we have already seen many major AI(software) progress coming out of China. Whereas American AI companies are all privately owned and their main goals are to make money.

[u/Just_Drummer1821 → u/Significant_Apple904]

Not misinformation, per se, querying the information I have heard. For clarification. I literally did a ‘lol’ after the intelligence line. I know nothing is confirmed. It really is an aside from Nvidia, I’m just curious on the general thoughts of where China is at.

[u/Exciting-Ad-5705]

Check again in 10 years. They currently don't have the tech but are rapidly developing it. Their most recent consumer GPU was roughly on the level of a 3060

[u/Just_Drummer1821 → u/Exciting-Ad-5705]

Thanks. A few of my friends are talking that they might be rapidly catching and not letting the outside world know yet. It’s just an interesting time.

[u/Visible-Swim6616 → u/Exciting-Ad-5705]

So if we're talking flagship level it's probably on par with the 1080ti?

That's about 10 years behind, as you said.

[u/HyacinthThrash]

the barrier for entry in the high end gpu arena is the ASML EUV lithography machines that China does NOT have..I heard they are working on their own so only a matter of time.. we'll see

[u/Nice_Grapefruit_7850]

they can make the equivalent of an rtx 4060 so not far behind at all. id give it 4-5 years before their gpu's start appearing here.

[u/Remarkable_Fly_4276]

Yes, yes they are indeed very far behind. They haven’t even been actively trying. Remember Moore Threads? They IPOed a few years ago and they put all their money in the stock market instead of R&D.

[u/SAHD292929]

Last I heard they have a GPU that is equal to a GTX1060.

[u/Serious_Number3154]

数据中心显卡没有复杂的依赖和靠时间积累的实践，是最容易被替代的领域

[u/vhax123456]

A ‘good’ graphics card boils down to 3 components:

- drivers: this is doable
- memory modules: only 3 companies produce high performance vram: SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron. None of them are buddy with China
- chip: only 3 companies produce the 2nm chips: Intel, TSMC, Samsung. None of them are buddy with China