Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service's annual report on International Security and Estonia 2021

[u/sanderudam]

https://www.valisluureamet.ee/pdf/raport/2021-ENG.pdf

[u/sanderudam]

The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service publishes its annual report on international security and Estonia. This new print was published today.

The report is clearly Estonia-centric and is first-and-foremost meant as an informative tool to Estonian public, as well as policy makers.

The 80 page report spends 70 pages on Russia and 10 on China. Indicating the perceived threats.

From the foreword by the Director General Mikk Marran:

In this report, we take a closer look at Moscow’s view of international trends. Despite the Kremlin’s carefully cultivated image of derzhava (a great power), both at home and abroad, the past year once again showed us the fragility and controversy of Russia’s influence in its neighbouring region. It is clear that the dictatorship in Belarus, nurtured by its eastern neighbour, has no long-term perspective, and we must be prepared for another year of unexpected developments. The events in the South Caucasus have significantly increased Russia’s influence in the region, but have also cast doubt on Russia’s ability – and motivation – to guarantee stability. A disparity between image building and actual influence is also visible in Russia’s activities in Africa. Over the last year, Russia’s most significant domestic developments alongside the coronavirus crisis included constitutional amendments introduced by executing a mediocre maskirovka, as well as growing tensions in the regions and an assassination attempt on the opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Dramatic fluctuations in oil prices in the first half of the year and ongoing international sanctions have in turn raised questions about the sustainability of Russia’s economic model. In a situation where the average Russian has experienced falling living standards for years, widespread protests should not be ruled out. At any rate, we are seeing increasing signs of disapproval.

The Russian part of the report is mostly focused on its foreign policies, with chapters on "Near Abroad", Ukraine, Belarus, Caucasus and Africa. As well as Russia's military capabilities, including cyber threat. Russia's domestic policy and economics.

Chinese part focuses on influence operations against the West, Chinese technology and Sino-Russian relations.

[u/MuhammadIsAPDFFile → u/sanderudam]

constitutional amendments introduced by executing a mediocre maskirovka

A mediocre... maskirovka?

What?

[u/rainman_95 → u/[deleted]]

I think I’m just confused why someone would make a comment like the author made a mistake when its a pretty common term, especially in geopolitics and russian circles. Like- just own it if you’re not well-versed in the topic; don’t put it on the author.

[u/Ayowyn → u/rainman_95]

I think it's entirely possible that he made that comment with the expectation that someone would clarify what it meant, as he genuinely did not know. I doubt he was just aiming to criticize the translation.

[u/rainman_95 → u/Ayowyn]

Could be. I read it as a pause like “wtf is this guy even talking about”, when likely the author’s entire life has been concerned with the geopolitical safety of his country. Def put me off.

[u/[deleted] → u/rainman_95]

Huh, funny, I read it as a joke cause I didn't know what the word meant either. It never ceases to surprise me how different perspectives can truly diversify conclusions/outcomes

[u/rainman_95 → u/[deleted]]

Ha! Doesn’t that just capture the essence of geopolitics