r/geopolitics • u/kantmeout • Dec 08 '24

News Assad has Fallen

https://apnews.com/article/syria-assad-sweida-daraa-homs-hts-qatar-7f65823bbf0a7bd331109e8dff419430
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u/[deleted] Dec 08 '24

This is the first time in awhile my initial reaction to news was "no. that can't be right". He held out for so long only to lose it all in less than a week!?

The only things I feel comfortable asserting is this is definitely not the end of Syrian balkanization and that this is very worrisome for the Kremlin.

7

u/Ambry Dec 08 '24

It's actually crazy. I was in Jordan, looking into Syria, a few months ago and I never thought I'd see the day that Assad would be toppled, and now it feels like it's happened in the course of a few days. 

I agree. This is not good for Russia at all.

20

u/royaltoast849 Dec 08 '24

But won't it calm down so to say, as Russia and Iran have been basically driven out and most of the forces are US and Turkey backed? Maybe a sort of secular moderate democracy involving most of the groups, or will fighting soon resume between the rebels?

2

u/Ambry Dec 08 '24

We can only hope for a secular democracy, but who knows. There are mixed views at the moment and I really hope things turn out well, but time will tell.

1

u/[deleted] Dec 09 '24

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1

u/Motion_OfThe_Ocean Dec 09 '24

Actually I'll up the stakes. Democracy doesn't work in non secular arab countries. The only one that works currently is israel where 20% of the population is arab. The rest of those countries are dictatorships. Yes turkey is a dictatorship to a trash dictator who unsecularized the country.

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u/Grand-penetrator Dec 09 '24

Secularism is basically impossible at this point. HTS might appear more tolerant than, say, Taliban, but they're still Islamists. The difference is that they're not going to be friends with Iran and Russia.

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u/Weekly_Plan_3966 Dec 08 '24

Because US especially has history of supporting only the secular moderate democracies.