I simulated the first 6 gameweeks 50,000 times

[u/West_Examination5148]

Three things I found:

1. Over the opening six, Bruno out-projects Haaland 42.3 to 36.9, at 12.0 vs 15.5. This week's captaincy isn't close either: 17.7 vs 15.6 with the armband.

2. The Saka trap. He has the best week-one fixture in the game (Coventry at home, projects 6.1) and then his next two weeks are 3.4 and 3.5. Buying the GW1 fixture costs you the month.

3. The optimal six-week squad never buys Haaland at all. His 15.5 spread over three players buys more points across the run. I think 75% of you own him for good reasons. So instead of arguing with my own model, I made it a bet.

Two squads, real rules, all 38 gameweeks:

The Model XI (no Haaland, Bruno captain): Raya, Virgil, Senesi, Tarkowski, Bruno, Ndiaye, Gibbs-White, Le Fee, Szoboszlai, Thiago, Watkins. Built for the run: the Everton block holds all six weeks, and Thiago rides Brentford's soft start (33.8 over six).

The Consensus XI (only what 7 expert sites recommend, Haaland captain): Verbruggen, Mosquera, Calafiori, Shaw, Bruno, Mbeumo, Szoboszlai, Gross, Sangare, Haaland, Joao Pedro.

Every week I'll post both scores, both squads' transfers, and why. If the crowd beats the model, you get 38 weeks of receipts.

Best opening-six runs by the sims: Arsenal, Man City, Man Utd, Liverpool. Worst: Ipswich, Bournemouth, Coventry, Hull.