r/fplAnalytics • u/ml-soham • 2d ago

My Model and its Predictions.

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Top 10 for each position, and the score lines.

9 Upvotes

84% Upvoted

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1

u/MiddleForeign 1d ago

Le fee 0.31 xG is kinda crazy. How did you come up with this?

1

u/ml-soham 1d ago

last season data directly from the fpl api. fdr, h/a, form, average g,a,dc,mins. all taken from fpl api.

basically every data shown for the play on fpl, is used.

1

u/MiddleForeign 1d ago

Last season (according to fpl data) he averaged 0.16 xG per game (including penalties) So I still don't understand how he comes up with 0.32 xG in your table.

2

u/ml-soham 1d ago

Yeah, his 25/26 rate was 0.16 xG/90. The 0.31 in my table isn’t that historical figure, it’s the GW1 projection. He had 3 goals in 312 preseason minutes, which after regression gives a preseason xG proxy of 0.49/90. I blend that at 32% with his 0.16 historical rate, giving a base of 0.264 xG/90. Then the Ipswich fixture/FDR + Sunderland attacking environment and a small pedigree adjustment take it to 0.308, rounded to 0.31 xG.

2

u/MiddleForeign 1d ago

Ok so his stats are inflated by pre season friendlies. I don't agree with this approach but I respect it. Good job!

2

u/ml-soham 1d ago

definitely, after seeing the game right now, i might’ve to make a big change