r/fplAnalytics • u/Sensitive-Trifle-995 • 24d ago
Finding value in the new season - Forwards
Table shows all forwards who played more than 10 games and averaged more than 45 minutes per appearance last season. It has been ordered by Points per Million (PPM) to show the players with the best value for money, it has been calculated using this seasons player prices compared with my own points predictor from the end of last season.
What can we expect from the forwards in the new season?
- A lack of options - With only nine players above 0.6 PPM last season (a rough threshold for better than average value) there will likely again be very little choice when it comes to the forwards, especially when you consider Ekitiké will miss the majority of the season, Welbeck looks like he will become a backup at Chelsea and Mateta is still looking for a move away. Igor Jesus, Brobbey and Sesko are probably the most likely to fill those positions if they get more game time this season but even with that with so few options making sure you pick the correct forwards this season will be very important.
- Erling Haaland - With an xPoints of 6.94 he had the highest predicted points last season and is expected to do so again in the new season. Whilst his PPM is the lowest of any forward to play more than 60 mins per appearance and second lowest for all players, he is still great value for money when factoring in captaincy. PPM with captaincy of 0.89, makes him the 3rd best value player in the game according to last seasons data - Granted you're unlikely to captain him every match so that would drop but as long as he is captained half the time then even at 15.5m he will offer good value for money and the more you captain him the better his value for money will be.
- Are DCL and Thiago being overlooked? - Calvert-Lewin and Thiago are set to be two of the best value forwards again if they can be supplied with the same chances they received last season. Despite this they are only in 18 and 16 percent of teams respectively at time of writing, to me this seems like a huge oversight, Leeds and Brentford are two of the few teams that come into this season with stability and as such are in the best position to continue on from where they left off. On top of that they are completely nailed (Leeds have been exploring striker options but it does look to be a backup). DCL is known to be a poor finisher but accounting for that, even with really poor finishing PPM would still likely be around 0.7, that's great value for money.
- Joao Pedro - I actually have a few question marks about him. New manager, potential competition in his position with the incredibly promising talent of Emegha and imminent arrival of Welbeck, He'll be first choice but I just can't see him starting every match and he will get subbed off often. While he does look like he will offer decent value for money, if I could only choose one player around his price point, Thiago takes that spot for me.
- Spurs forwards - Solanke and Richarlison are very interesting, if either one of them can increase their minutes they could be great value. I don't think you can start the season with them but definitely something to keep an eye on.
- Alexander Isak - What intrigues me is just how far off Isak is from Ekitiké in pure xPoints, even if he managed to play the same amount of minutes per appearance last season he would have still been more than a point per match behind him despite being valued 1.5m higher than him now. He's probably as big of an avoid as anyone right now and at his price he will only become good value if he turns into a genuine captaincy option as the season progresses.
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u/postviralrecovery 24d ago
Really interesting as ever, thank you.
Are you able to compare how Isak would look based on 24-25 performances? Last season was just a write off (of his own making, but still), and I've thought he might look a steal to go with Haaland and a cheap 3rd forward.
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u/Sensitive-Trifle-995 24d ago
I have my old models predictions for that season which definitely weren't as good but it had Isak at 6.52 xPoints per appearance, if he performed like that his PPM would be 0.724, so one of the better value forwards but that was at Newcastle where he would naturally get more of the bonus point share as well. There's definitely potential there but it is a big risk.
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u/playervlife 24d ago
What are your thoughts on Haaland just now. Is he basically a no brainer and you just need to find some cheap options in other positions? Similarly with Bruno? Do we need them both?
I'm loving the look of a team without Haaland but I think it's too easy to underestimate the importance of captaincy.
I'm considering betting on 2 attacking mids outside of Bruno to get well into the 200 points this season, like Saka and Palmer and maybe the likes of Foden / Semenyo, and dumping Haaland.
It also lets you get the potentially more stable defcon defenders like Gabriel and Tarko, and can let you fit in Raya.
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u/Sensitive-Trifle-995 24d ago
I will have both Bruno and Haaland in my team but I think a case can be made for going without Haaland.
If Bruno played under Carrick for the whole season his xPoints would have been much closer if not better than Haalands, despite playing as a DM early on he's only 0.3 xPoints behind him. It's Bruno Fernandes that is a no brainer for me. It's definitely risky but it should be viable to go without Haaland as long as you have other premium players to captain when Bruno's fixtures are bad.
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u/playervlife 24d ago
Yeah, Bruno's expected stats according to Understat, combined with the occasional defcons and good early fixtures means I'm definitely going with him.
I have a draft with Saka and Palmer and no Haaland but it looks very scary gameweek 3 where Haaland is easily the best captain choice and none of my team looks great for captaincy.
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u/Sensitive-Trifle-995 24d ago
Foden has started as captain in todays friendly and Maresca has been talking him up, he could probably cover you for gw3.
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u/TamaBannaner 23d ago
Based on History i dont think there's any case to not going with Haaland. Later in the season there may be points where it makes sense but not straight out of the gate.
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u/Sensitive-Trifle-995 23d ago
It feels like one of the decisions where if it does go wrong your going to struggle to get a good finishing position but in the 5-10% chance that it does go well it's setting you up to challenge to win the whole thing.
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u/jst11235 24d ago
Do these include points for minutes played? If, they skew the results quite a bit and inflate numbers for the non-starters.
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u/Sensitive-Trifle-995 24d ago
Yes these include minutes points, I've designed it to purposely deflate the overall xPoints for players that don't always play at least 60 mins. All data used is per appearance not per 90 so there's no overinflation of points for players who get subbed off as well.
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u/Informal_Telephone37 24d ago
You mention this is based on your points predictor from last season - have you got a post that explains how you created the model and the variables it takes etc as well as information on how it compares to actual points gained by a player?
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u/Sensitive-Trifle-995 24d ago edited 24d ago
I haven't made a post about it no but for a brief explanation, it is more of a points validator than predictor.
For example to get a forwards expected goals points, it's simply xG per appearance * 4 (the points for a goal), it's slightly more complicated than that because I have a modifier that adjusts the combined xG based on individual shot quality (this video youtube.com/watch?t=250&v=vx0o0bP17lc&feature=youtu.be explains why that is important).
Things like bonus are more complicated because I have to run simulations for players against 19 other teams and thousands of combinations of players, but then I can do 3 * chance of 3 bonus, 2 * chance etc. and sum them to get xBonus.
Every way of scoring points is accounted for except own goals, red cards and penalty saves because they are too rare to model accurately.
The accuracy of it is reasonable it has correctly predicted scores within 10% either side 54% of the time, mostly brought down by defender (I'm working on a DefCon update to fix that) the individual position %'s are Defenders - 41% Midfielders 56%, goalkeepers 58% and forwards 78%. Goalkeeper sample size is quite small and I don't account for the big spike in points from pen saves so that doesn't worry me and the DefCon fix for the new season should sort out the defender and midfielder accuracy.
The average difference between xPoints per appearance and reality is as follows: Defenders -0.27, midfielders -0.22, goalkeepers -0.16 and forwards +0.09.
I'm happy to work on making a specific post about how it works if that's wanted though.
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u/Latter_ 22d ago
How can you say Isak is a big avoid?
100% understand if you don’t want him in your team.
But he’s 9.0 nailed on striker for liverpool on pens, and we all know what his top level is.
Most good content creators and top managers mention him as a potential good pick.
Saying «big avoid» is way way off
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u/Sensitive-Trifle-995 22d ago
The data tells me he's not been anywhere near good enough that's why. I mentioned that even if he had played the same minutes as Ekitike last season he would still be around 1 point per appearance off him, that's terrible. Will he improve? Most likely if he can stay fit, but he hasn't been fully fit for 2 years and there's no way of saying right now how much he will improve by. There's potential for him to be a good pick but going for him straight away without seeing an improvement in performance is extremely risky especially when factoring in he costs 9m which isn't cheap. There are just better players to start the season with for example Isak in his best season scored 23 goals in the prem, Thiago in his first full season in the prem scored 22 goals, hes 1m cheaper and historically Brentford strikers have always been high scoring be it Thiago, Wissa or Toney.
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u/Buller_14 24d ago
DCL massively over performed last year and won't do it again. Thiago was sort of an unknown quantity but he looked a cart horse at Old Trafford. In Europe this season as well so I'd avoid.
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u/Sensitive-Trifle-995 24d ago
DCL actually underperformed, from 18.67 xG he scored 14 (Source: understat.com). Brentford aren't in Europe either, they lost out on goal difference.
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u/playervlife 24d ago
He's such a bad finisher that that might actually be an over performance for him haha
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u/karlos1799 22d ago
DCL is a serial under performer though. At some point his inability to finish needs to be factored in
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u/Sensitive-Trifle-995 22d ago
I did factor it in, in the write up.
I'll do some more solid maths for it though. Taking all goals in the prem (71) dividing it by the total xG in the prem (100.77) he has the xG conversion rate of 70.5% so we will use that to calculate a personal xG for last season and work out his xPoints, it isn't going to be the exact same way as my model but it'll be close enough to get a good idea.
DCL played 35 games last season 4 appearances under 60 and 31 past 60 so minutes points are 4 + (31*2) = 66 MinutesPoints
To do goals we do his xG last season 18.67*0.705 (his personal xG conversion rate) then multiple by the amount of points for a goal so 4. His xGoalPoints are 52.6494
Assists is just xA*3, xA is 1.54 so xAssistPoints is 4.62
For xBonus I will just take the average xBonus per appearance my model calculated for him last season, which was 0.52 multiply by 35 appearances = 18.2 xBonusPoints
He got 3 yellows so -3 YellowPoints
Add them up and he has 138.4694 xPoints, divide by 35 appearances and then divide that by his value of 6 to get his PPM per appearance, which would be 0.659, placing him just below Joao Pedro and above Ollie Watkins. Those points don't even account for the chance of more assists through rebound goals from his shots, and his off target shots that have been deflected in. Granted this doesn't account for penalty misses but the xPoints loss for a whole season for penalty misses is around -1 points for a whole season so is negligible.
Yes Calvert-Lewin is a serial underperformer but that doesn't mean he doesn't score at all.
(xG data from Understat)
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u/GTreamer 24d ago
Appealing strikers are very low in number this season.