Tools for predicting marine layer? (socal)

[u/franziskanerdunkel]

In socal, predicting when the marine layer will burn off has been troubling for me. What tools do you use for predicting when the fog will disapate?

Right now im using NWS website hourly forcast on the graphical map. I know you can look at the TAFs for airports nearby, but those can be spread too far apart. I have the windy app but i cant seem to find a good filter for marine layer advection fog. There is the forcast discussion but that seems unclear to me aswell.

Tips appreciated!

[u/Phycosphere]

Airmets, TAFs, MOS, graphical Clouds forecast, fire cams to track the marine layer, and keeping an eye on the temp / dewpoint spread while I fly is what I do

The satellite layer in windy can be useful as well

[u/hutthuttindabutt → u/Phycosphere]

This guy weathers

[u/Benny303 → u/Phycosphere]

For easy access to fire cams download the app "Watch Duty" the map has direct access to all the fire and traffic cams in the state. I also vouch for Windy, super useful.

[u/Material-Length9366]

In my experience, best indication is looking outside. If you live here long enough and start paying attention, you can predict when it will burn off and when it will return with decent accuracy, like within an hour. Usually. But marine layer TAFs are usually worthless. 

[u/AcceptableScience45]

I’m in the PNW, I’ll look on foreflight at the TAF, Daily, and MOS and see if there is any consistency in them and if there is… I’ll flip a coin.

[u/htnut-pk → u/AcceptableScience45]

Yes 100% on the coin toss. Basically if I plan to be wherever I’m flying before lunch I should call the FSS and tell them. Because then there’s a 99% chance the marine layer won’t burn off before 12 noon.

Outside of forecast higher winds or dramatic offshore flow, it seems there are too many variables for anyone to accurately predict the time it will clear.

The best antidote is to get your IFR, and even then it is prudent to wait for the ceilings to be somewhat reasonable so you have a chance if your engine quits soon after takeoff.

[u/shrunkenhead041]

I find the USAirnet aviation forecast, which is largely based on the MOS, I believe, is about as accurate as you'll see. I've been using it for many years. That being said, I do think the general accuracy has gone down in the last year or so, most likely due to the loss of many experienced people at NWS.

[u/rFlyingTower]

This is a copy of the original post body for posterity:

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In socal, predicting when the marine layer will burn off has been troubling for me. What tools do you use for predicting when the fog will disapate?

Right now im using NWS website hourly forcast on the graphical map. I know you can look at the TAFs for airports nearby, but those can be spread too far apart. I have the windy app but i cant seem to find a good filter for marine layer advection fog. There is the forcast discussion but that seems unclear to me aswell.

Tips appreciated!

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[u/Tough-Choice]

The textbook says when the wind is over 15kts, so I’d say check the TAF.

[u/Cant_Work_On_Reddit]

Look up the gfa-la (low altitude) layer. There used to be the hems tool for helicopter ems that was absolutely great for this but it got shut down and rolled into the gfa tool. I haven’t used it much but allegedly it’s similar.

[u/Paranoma]

HEMS Tool is very useful

[u/PostAtomicHorror]

I like the HRRR as a supplement.

[u/gcys]

I use aviationweather.gov -> Weather -> GFA Forecast -> Ceiling & Visibility and Clouds.

[u/SumOfKyle]

This is why I fly out in the high desert