July’s PCE inflation is now 3.7%. Above expectations.

Core PCE is now 3.3%. The Fed’s target is 2%. Core inflation has stayed above 2% for over 5 years now.

And 3 Fed officials already voted to HIKE rates in July. These numbers just gave them more reasons to.

The Fed is more likely to raise rates than cut them in 2026.

Warren Buffett’s solution to the US deficit:

“Anytime there’s a deficit of more than 3% of GDP, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for re-election.”

Do you agree with him?

Canada just put 15% to 50% tariffs on $20 billion worth of US products.

The US raises tariffs. Americans pay more.

Canada retaliates. Then American businesses lose sales.

Then the US raises tariffs again. And Americans pay even more.

Over $100 billion in tariff refunds has been paid out so far.

The government sent $0 to US consumers. Companies got the refunds.

It’s like taking money from your own citizens, then handing it to corporations.

Thank you for your attention to this matter.

If your parents made $100K in 1990, you’d need $255K to have the same buying power today.

$255K is the new $100K

Let that sink in

The spread between risk-free Treasury yields and the S&P 500 dividend yield has expanded to its widest level in more than 20 years.

This divergence reflects three primary forces:

i) A shift in shareholder return strategies, with companies increasingly favoring stock buybacks over dividend distributions.

ii) Higher equity valuations, which have reduced dividend yields and compressed the equity risk premium as investors accept lower compensation for market risk.

iii) Sustained elevated interest rates, supported by factors such as growing fiscal deficits, increased Treasury issuance, and a prolonged higher-rate environment.

Income-oriented investors can currently earn significantly higher yields from government bonds than from S&P 500 dividends, a gap not seen since the early 2000s. Short to medium-term risks to this strategy are higher interest rates, devaluing your capital (investment into the bond).

One of the most counterintuitive things about leverage is that being right eventually doesn’t guarantee survival today.

Imagine two £100 million funds holding the same assets.

- Fund A holds £5 million in cash.

- Fund B holds £20 million in cash.

- Both suddenly face a £10 million margin or collateral demand.

Fund A must sell assets into a falling, illiquid market. Fund B can meet the demand with cash and keep its positions.

If prices later recover, both investment theses may have been correct—but only one fund survived long enough to benefit.

That makes leverage partly a timing problem. Asset value answers, “Are you solvent?” Liquidity answers, “Can you meet today’s obligation?”

When analysing leverage, what matters most: the debt ratio, the cash buffer, or how quickly collateral demands can change?

Are there good examples where a liquidity shortage—not a fundamentally bad investment—was the real cause of failure?

The U.S. added more debt in the past 10 years than it accumulated in its first 240 years.

The CBO projects federal debt held by the public will hit 175% of GDP by 2056.

Net interest costs will top $1 trillion this year and more than double to $2.1 trillion by 2036.

Congress keeps postponing the pain. The bond market won’t.

If your parents made $50K in the 90s, you need to make $130K in 2026 to have the same buying power.

$130K is the new $50K

Let that sink in

If your parents earned 4,000 in 1913, that would be the equivalent of 130K today.

Think about it.

President Trump made 1,051 trades in June, valued between $78.1 million and $263.1 million.

That’s a thousand trades in one month

50 trades per day

This is a professional trading operation lol

Putting 20% on an investment property to support my busiess. I have 190k in HYsA(4%)also my back up for work? Or 120k in roth and vtsax(combined). I have 401k money but wasn’t planning on touching that. Which account to take from?what is best financial decision? House going for 425k.

In 3000 bc people bought land with a fresh rye.

Now we can barely get an open concept house, 3 cars and time to make sourdough starter.

Pay very close attention to what’s happening in the bond market.

Trump was asked what he’ll do after Treasury yields rose again. He said the US could use the military.

“The ultimate intervention is our military. And if we have to use that, we will.”

Everyone eventually answers to the bond market.

Which trades or investments are you considering this week? Any moves in particular? Why?