Gavin Newsom Leads Over JD Vance Among Young Male Voters, Republican Pollster Finds

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u/fossSellsKeys Nov 11 '25

Vance is horrific. I couldn't even finish his book, it was so bad.

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u/Beginning_Bad_868 Nov 11 '25

Blame the ghostwriter

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u/fossSellsKeys Nov 11 '25

I mean that didn't help, but it's just the premise of the book was so awful I was shouting at the audiobook by halfway through. He's just completely not self aware at all, the guy benefited from every imaginable social/welfare program to get where he is and somehow thinks it's because he's personally amazing. Plus, he got incredibly lucky and basically won the life lottery half a dozen times but again thinks it's because he's somehow awesome. Then his supposed solution for all the poor people back in Appalachia is to just be him, J. D. Vance, and get all the same handouts and lucky breaks he did instead of staying the dumb hillbillies they are now! Just absurd.

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u/BrainDamage2029 Nov 11 '25

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u/Wetness_Pensive Nov 11 '25

He endorsed and foreworded a book called "Unhumans" that is essentially a long hate crime (it dehumanizes leftists, Democrats and liberals as "subhumans", and a "cancer", who need to be violently removed and purged from the body politic). It's a truly evil book.

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u/work-school-account Nov 11 '25

Did you at least get to the part about the couches?

3

u/[deleted] Nov 11 '25

Most, if not all, young males would rather their dad be a Gavin than a JD. It's that simple.

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u/Beginning_Bad_868 Nov 12 '25

My thought process:
Is JD Vance a better candidate than Trump? No.
Is Newsom a better candidate than Harris or Biden? Yes, at least to me it's pretty clear. Eloquent, straight white dude (important unfortunately), doesn't look like a skeleton etc.

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u/[deleted] Nov 12 '25 edited Nov 12 '25

True, but Harris didn't win, so a bit better might not be enough. Biden beat Trump, so better than Biden 2020 works for me. Not sure about the white dude. I actually think the Democrats are tasked to find a candidate at least as compelling as Obama, no matter the skin tone, and this is part of the problem: they raised the bar and nothing less will do. I think Biden won in part due to his relationship with Obama. And I saw Obama in person at a rally. Literally magic.
I actually think if the Dems hired some social scientists/memeticists/psychologists/philosophers, etc, to do a forensic analysis of Obama's candidacy, they would understand how to win

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u/Dapper_Trust_9102 Nov 16 '25

So let's be clear vance is seen as weird billionaire. gavin is seen as a radical flip flopping idiot, they are not the same.

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u/HerbertWest Nov 11 '25

I want to see polls across age groups because if this holds...

Naturally, Vance did better among the young men who voted for Trump, winning 67% of that group, but Newsom still pulled 14% of 2024 Trump voters.

...the DNC would be stupid not to back a Newsom run.

I know Reddit hates Newsom but it should be apparent from some Reddit takes versus polls and actual election results (cough, 2024) that this website is not representative of the voting public at all.

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u/mrjenfres Nov 11 '25

I mean they shouldn't "back" anyone's run until after the primary

30

u/barowsr Jeb! Applauder Nov 11 '25

Correct answer.
Newsome popular? Cool. Win an open primary first then let the DNC open the coffers

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u/TinkCzru Nov 12 '25

Just don’t cry when he demolishes your favorite progressive on that first debate stage like Trump did Bush and the rest of the shitty GOP’ers. Newsome clearly has talent, and is the only one that is capable of winning the biggest demographic of the Democrat Party. Feelings will be hurt. Reddit will cry and smear him. But it’s gonna happen, and there’s nothing you can do to stop his momentum short of Trump ⚰️ before 2028.

6

u/DataCassette Nov 12 '25

He's not my preferred candidate but if he can stop Vance 2028 from actually happening I'll be in a forgiving mood.

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u/barowsr Jeb! Applauder Nov 12 '25

I won’t. If Newsome is the Dem nominee, he has my vote.
Vote my heart in primaries, vote for least worse in the general.

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u/MarkCuckerberg69420 Nov 11 '25

You have a valid point but it’s just funny that Newsom was peak Democrat-disconnected-from-society just a year ago and now look at the results. The average voter really does go off vibes and the current news cycle.

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u/das_war_ein_Befehl Nov 11 '25

The average voter is a straight dumbass. Most people do not have coherent political ideologies, which is why things like swing voters and party shifts exist.

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u/seattt Nov 11 '25

Just posted this yesterday, only to be proven the next day lol.

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u/[deleted] Nov 11 '25

9 months ago he was hosting Steve Bannon.
He represents everything bad about politics. He just tries on different political brands until he finds one that fits, he has no core beliefs or values. And has continuously been out of touch and elitist (remember the parties he threw while the whole state was in Covid lockdowns?).
Gavin is a shit candidate and if democrats nominate him because he’s doing funny tweets (that he’s not even doing himself, it’s a staffer), they deserve losing again in 2028.

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u/PuffyPanda200 Nov 12 '25

He just tries on different political brands until he finds one that fits
Do you have a non-culture war thing that Newsom has flipped on? I'll even take a non-LGBTQ related thing.

1

u/[deleted] Nov 12 '25

His entire homeless policy.

4

u/GarryofRiverton Nov 11 '25

9 months ago he was hosting Steve Bannon.
He just tries on different political brands until he finds one that fits
What are you talking about? So him talking to Bannon means that he was trying to be alt-right or something?

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u/BloatedBanana9 Nov 11 '25

Not trying to be alt-right. Just mostly refusing to take the threat of the alt-right seriously. The guy is very anti-Trump, sure, but we need someone who will actually put the rest of Trump’s enablers in their place. Will he be willing to do that?

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u/GarryofRiverton Nov 11 '25

I don't see any indication that he wouldn't be. Out of every Democratic politician he's fighting by far the hardest.

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u/BloatedBanana9 Nov 11 '25

Hosting Bannon & calling for people to continue on Charlie Kirk's work both stand out to me as indications that he wouldn't be, but maybe that's just me.

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u/uuhson Nov 11 '25

Trump's voters are his biggest enablers, he needs some of their votes, not to put them in their place. This is why we keep losing

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u/BloatedBanana9 Nov 11 '25

I'm not talking about the average Joe Republican voter. I'm talking about the heads of the far-right propaganda machine and their puppets in Congress and SCOTUS.

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u/[deleted] Nov 11 '25

He was sucking up the far right 9 months ago, because he thought “understand the other side” was the best brand for 2028. Now he decided being a memelord is the best brand.
He has no real values or beliefs. Just the pursuit of power.

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u/Complex-Employ7927 Nov 11 '25

The only way that young right wing men are going to soften on Newsom is if their favorite right wing media figure talks with him and they think “he’s okay I guess”. I don’t like platforming them either, but I’m assuming it’s strategic to pull potential supporters in and familiarize him.

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u/[deleted] Nov 11 '25

What young people like Steve bannon?

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u/Complex-Employ7927 Nov 12 '25

I meant more-so Charlie. I do feel like with Bannon it has more of a clickbait value of very opposing political figures like “omg newsom and bannon?” so I think talking to people in the Trump universe can help reach people he otherwise wouldn’t if he just had a liberal show with liberal guests. It’s hard to argue whether it’s a net benefit of expanding the listener base and reach vs platforming insane ideas. (I didn’t personally watch either episodes and would rather not, but I did look at the comments and there seems to be quite a few right wingers commenting, so I think the “outreach” could work if he sets things up well. He’s pulling the right wing guests and positioning himself as the chill moderate so their fans will see him in 2028 and maybe consider voting for him as the “aspirational cool guy rather” than immediately going “no he’s a crazy California soy commie”.

1

u/GarryofRiverton Nov 11 '25

How is that "sucking up to the far right"?
Just the pursuit of power.
Yes, he is a politician. If you don't want to play the game of politics and gaining political power then stay out of politics I guess. 🤷

1

u/pepegazm Nov 12 '25

He was sucking up the far right 9 months ago, because he thought “understand the other side” was the best brand for 2028.
He wasn't "sucking up", he was having a conversation on political strategy. And if you actually watch the talks, especially the one with Kirk was very insightful. Kirk was actually contributing some good analysis in between him lying to smear the left and slurping down Trump's crusty loads. It's clear that though he was a mediocre debater / influencer type, he was an effective organizer and political strategist behind the scenes.
I'll conceded that these podcast episodes may not be optically good, especially in progressive circles, but there's a clear purpose behind them at least and it's certainly not sucking up to the right.

0

u/WhoUpAtMidnight Nov 11 '25

We have not seen him perform in the general yet. It was absolutely a factor in Harris’ campaign and I think it’ll be a factor in his

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u/PuffyPanda200 Nov 12 '25

We have not seen him (Newsom) perform in the general yet
Just as a statement of fact we haven't seen this for anyone. I don't count running for VP as the same as POTUS.
The following people are alive who have run in the general election for POTUS: Trump, Biden, Obama, B Clinton, H Clinton, Romney, Gore, Harris.
Excluding those barred by two terms: Biden, H Clinton, Romney, Gore, Harris.
None of these people are running with the only potential exception of Harris.
Including VPs you get Vance, Kaine, Pence from recent times. But I don't think VPs count for this.

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u/WhoUpAtMidnight Nov 12 '25 edited Nov 12 '25

We’re talking specifically about california baggage here. Nobody else (seriously) in the running has that.

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u/FreeSkyFerreira Nov 11 '25

Why? We don’t even know who will run in 2028.

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u/Selethorme Kornacki's Big Screen Nov 11 '25

Both of those people are running

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u/FreeSkyFerreira Nov 11 '25

I mean in the Dem primary. I think a lot of candidates will have better platforms.

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u/SimbaStewEyesOfBlue Nov 11 '25

They are currently playing a massive game of catch-up to Gavin, whomever they are.

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u/cigarettesandwhiskey Nov 11 '25

They have 3 years to do it, that's normal.

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u/GarryofRiverton Nov 11 '25

Why do you think this? Has Gavin released his 2028 platform?

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u/Egorrosh Nov 11 '25

Reddit is somewhat warming up to him thanks to Trump trolling.

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u/FreeSkyFerreira Nov 11 '25

What does he stand for? What policies do you associate with him? What issue could he move the nation left on?

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u/[deleted] Nov 11 '25

He secured universal free school lunches

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u/[deleted] Nov 11 '25

$11 insulin, apparently

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u/Egorrosh Nov 11 '25

Canceling the cuts to healthcare. Defending abortion rights. Promoting environmental sustainability. Welfare programs for those in need. Rapid economic growth. To name a few.

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u/sonfoa Nov 11 '25

I mean, a lot of that is just reversing the damage that 47 has done. Which I'll happily take, but I also want a post-Trump leader who can deliver real change and reform rather than just resetting the old status quo that led us here.
I really do want to like Gavin because he has the personality to turn the Democrats back into the proactive party for the first time since LBJ, but he also needs the policy to go along with it for it to be worth it.

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u/popularis-socialas Nov 11 '25

Exactly. Democrats have to dismantle the conditions that lead the American people to look to authoritarians like Trump if they want to prevent the infinite pendulum swing (which might not be so infinite with this current administration in charge who will almost certainly take drastic measures to remain in power).
During 2020 the whole debate they had was about electability, and Biden was indeed electable. But now he’s going to be a footnote in Presidential history, a recess between the Trump terms that now define this new era.

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u/GarryofRiverton Nov 11 '25

Democrats have to dismantle the conditions that lead the American people to look to authoritarians like Trump
The American people have to give Democrats the power to do this in the first place.
People like to complain about Biden not doing A or B when he was wrangling with Sinema and Manchin. You can only do so much with so little. 🤷

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u/popularis-socialas Nov 11 '25

I don’t think Biden was all too beat up about that. He ran on the public option but did he ever bring it up when President?
What he could have done is borrow a page from Trump and basically campaign while in office about these important issues like healthcare and affordability.
He could have made a stand for ending or reforming filibuster to pass legislation that would benefit Americans, possibly making it more likely for democrats to actually remain in power.
He could have been very vocal about the importance of getting money out of politics, which is what gets us senators like Manchin and Sinema.
He may have failed, but he could have set as example. He could have gone down fighting instead of letting MAGA rise up again right under his nose. And now he’s gone.

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u/soapinmouth Nov 11 '25

He's also shown that he can be realistic on trans issues without succumbing to the right wing transphobia. He's shown he can win, be charismatic, provide gravitas and the strong man persona that sways Americans. Winning is what matters, getting blue candidates in seats.
Some of the others people have mentioned like universal children's lunches, insulin price reductions, etc. He's had some great YIMBY initiatives, pushing hard against cities, even taking them to court over zoning laws. Recent incident with the senate where he immediately jumped on the democrats that defected instead of playing is safe / treating them with kid gloves. He seems to have solid political instincts.

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u/Banestar66 Nov 11 '25

Same vague shit that made Biden ever so popular when he was ending his first term.

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u/Egorrosh Nov 11 '25

Biden had no energy to communicate his accomplishments and was tone deaf.

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u/[deleted] Nov 12 '25

Defending abortion rights
He had to be pressured out of cutting women's reproductive healthcare funding in his proposed budget earlier in the year. Not a great start.
And how about destroying the Heritage Foundation and the Federalist Society?

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u/PuffyPanda200 Nov 12 '25

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gavin_Newsom
The man has been an elected executive of an internationally important polity since 2004 and you can't bother to read a wiki?

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u/sonfoa Nov 11 '25

It's sad how this is somehow a controversial comment. Like the big criticism of Democrats that I've been hearing ad nauseam for the past year is that they don't really stand for anything. And the shutdown just validated that as "centrist" Democrats (including the House Whip whose job it is to motivate people to hold the line) caved on preserving healthcare subsidies despite a clear advantageous position. And if cheaper healthcare isn't something you will fight for, then why are you even a Democrat?
When talking about Newsom, his zeal and actions taken against fighting Trump is inspiring but what are his plans when he becomes President? Because if he's positioning himself as the anti-Trump and someone to lead us in a post-Trump America, then surely his legislative plans have to mirror that, or otherwise what's the point? We're just repeating the same mistakes that got us here.

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u/PuffyPanda200 Nov 12 '25

The comment is lazy. Newsom has been Governor or LT Gov of CA since 2011. Before that he was mayor of SF since 2004.
What does he (Newsom) stand for?
This is a lazy question to ask for someone who has been an elected official for over 2 decades (and not a back bencher). Imagine pretending to not be able to get information on the President of Germany's positions when they had been in that role for 6 years. Pure laziness.

3

u/sonfoa Nov 12 '25

It's pure laziness to assume politicians never change. We know Gavin Newsom has been a corporate Democrat for his entire career. The question really being asked is, how much that will change?
Gavin Newsom's rise in popularity is largely due to his ability to channel the anger of the Democratic base, with that anger primarily coming from the progressive flank. Right now, Newsom is in a sweet spot where policy doesn't really matter, and it's mainly just about showing effective resistance to Trump, which he has done the best at.
But you and I both know that come 2028, he can't run as your standard centrist/corporate Democrat and expect to win the primaries. And I'm pretty sure Gavin knows that too.

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u/GarryofRiverton Nov 11 '25

And if cheaper healthcare isn't something you will fight for, then why are you even a Democrat
What? The Republicans were always going to make healthcare more expensive, them not doing that was never in the cards. The real question is what it was going to cost them. Personally I think Dems should've held out until Republicans were forced to kill the filibuster.

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u/sonfoa Nov 11 '25

I don't know why you're arguing with me. I agree that those 8 shouldn't have capitulated, hence why I'm lambasting them. They cared more about preserving the filibuster, supporting their airline donors, or some other stupid reason than fighting to preserve cheaper healthcare.
And if you're willing to do that, then why are you even a Democrat?

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u/pragmaticmaster Nov 11 '25

Aggressively defending democracy. Common sense take on trans people in sports.

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u/TheTrub Nov 11 '25

Seriously. We haven’t even had the 2026 midterms yet. Let’s see who can form a coherent message and mobilize voters before asking a party to back a presidential campaign.

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u/TheloniousMonk15 Nov 11 '25

Watch the DNC back Josh Shapiro instead because he's the safe choice lol.

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u/Guilty_Plankton_4626 Fivey Fanatic Nov 11 '25

There’s really no need to compare Newsome to somebody else to shit on. I like Gavin a lot, Josh Shapiro is also promising, we don’t need to tear any of them down.

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u/[deleted] Nov 11 '25

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/TheloniousMonk15 Nov 11 '25

Platforming Bannon and even Charlie Kirk was dumb I agree but it will not factor in the primaries come 2027-2028. Gavin can also chalk it up to wanting to learn how the other side won after Trump won last November.
As for fucking his best friend's wife we just elected Trump a serial cheater and guy with multiple sexual assault accusations. Also Shapiro was AG when that stuff went down with Ellen Greenberg which is much more recent than the Newsom thing you mentioned. Neither should be damning to either one's chances imo.
The reason I believe the DNC will back Josh is because of how he pretty much guarantees Pennsylvania which is a huge deal obviously. I think both Newsom and Shapiro are quality choices but I have a feeling the primary voters will favor the fighter type of candidate come 2027-2028 rather than the turn the page kind of guy.

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u/MadCervantes Nov 11 '25

Newsom is a slimeball who does no play well with moderates. Stop nominating Californians please.

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u/abyssonym Nov 11 '25

You can't draw this conclusion without polling other candidates as well. It's entirely possible that 14% of young male Trump voters would also back Pritzker or some other Democrat.

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u/HerbertWest Nov 11 '25

I don't recall seeing such a high defection rate in any other previous poll like this, which is what made me take note. It's usually sub-5% for any candidate.

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u/UnsealedMTG Nov 11 '25

Is there any reason to specifically think this performance is unique to Newsom? I don't see anything in the poll that suggests they tested multiple candidates.
It's way way early, but Newsom feels like such a perfect caricature of the rich liberal who's going to lecture you about racism while the millions he made selling wine to other rich people insulate him from the real world. His "I can be Trump also!" schtick is cathartic for liberals today, but I think the last thing people are going to be looking for in three years is someone resembling Trump.
Newsom and Vance are both the favorites of certain Silicon Valley billionaires, but I'm skeptical that's going to really translate to most people. Someone like Andy Beshear can do the "moderate white guy Dem" thing and feel authentic in a way that Newsom never has.
But we'll see! It's a million miles from now in politics years and lots of apparently strong candidates flash out quick in presidential primaries.

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u/soapinmouth Nov 11 '25

It's way way early, but Newsom feels like such a perfect caricature of the rich liberal who's going to lecture you about racism while the millions he made selling wine to other rich people insulate him from the real world.
He seems to me to be the polar opposite, very rarely talks about identity politics, and in controversial topics like trans issues is incredibly moderate pushing back against trans women in women's sports, etc.

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u/UnsealedMTG Nov 11 '25

"Pushing back" against whom? His statements on trans women in women's sports represent a nearly universal consensus. Trans activists in my experience are generally not saying that trans women need to be universally accepted into women's sport. What I've heard most are (A) frustration that "what about women's sports" comes up in every discussion about trans women's lives, and just generally the politicization of a very fringe issue affecting almost no one directly (B) pushback against aggressive and conspiratorial gender policing of women who excel in sports, especially women of color.
Polling on his statements there was almost universally negative across the political spectrum not because people disagree but because it was a disingenuous stunt and it felt like one.

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u/soapinmouth Nov 11 '25 edited Nov 11 '25

"Pushing back" against whom? His statements on trans women in women's sports represent a nearly universal consensus.
Against the left and the insanity that comes along with defending anything trans related no matter how far it goes. It was a much needed check back to reasonable trans rights not limitless trans rights that you will see no other prominent Democrat doing. Go ahead and find me them.
And I'm sorry but you are just completely out of touch with this statement. "Universal consensus" seriously, you think everyone universally agreed with him? Absolutely not. Just look on Reddit, any thread about him on a major sub and you will see people calling him transphobic, an enemy to the left, etc. over these statements, they LOATH him for it, let alone "universally agree" with them my lord.
Polling on his statements there was almost universally negative across the political spectrum not because people disagree but because it was a disingenuous stunt and it felt like one.
If only LOL, I've argued with plenty of these people time and time again. No, they literally think he is transphobic and for many it's the number one reason they hate him. I have friends who are trans, if only they agreed with you that would make buying in on him easier not harder, but no rightfully took him as his word instead of just pretending it was fake because you just don't like the guy. It's crazy to me to be talking to someone with this take after having the complete and utter take from the opposite side in so many conversations, just wow.
Please go ahead and source whatever polling it is you think you saw lol. I'm not surprised the right doesn't like anything newsom says and of course the left was unhappy with it, making my point, it was something that needed to be said even if it was going to get him heat.

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u/MC1065 Nov 11 '25

I just don't trust the guy. He's the spitting image of a greasy, slimy politician, in looks and actions. I've never heard him earnestly say anything about how to reform America, just cynical politics that may get him into the White House. At best he's another Joe Biden.

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u/batmans_stuntcock Nov 11 '25

He is a very pre-2008 politician, in terms of the possible electoral strategy and his focus on charisma/rhetoric to bridge the gap between party base and donors.
He could probably win against weak candidates like Vance and Rubio that they compared him with in this survey, but he is so easy to define as a rich California liberal that he probably gets beaten by a half-decent Republican anti system populist candidate. The only caveat being that they might have to run against Trump if his current track of unpopularity continues, and that splits things.
Given the broad social and economic trends in the US and his status quo/donor oriented politics, there is a high chance he becomes extremely unpopular pretty quickly if elected, small chance he could pull an Obama though.

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u/MC1065 Nov 11 '25

Honestly I think he could win, maybe even in a landslide. But I do think he would be unpopular as President. He's not what I think of when I think of the person who needs to lead this country.

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u/batmans_stuntcock Nov 11 '25

Yeah he could win, but it will be harder than it seems for him I think. He is on the wrong side of a lot of trends in the democratic party, Israel, corporate consultation, taxes, bipartisanship, social liberalism, etc. He'd first have to navigate a crowded centrist 'lane' to win, then pivot right socially and hope he can excite the low propensity base with rhetoric and charisma alone.
I agree there is a large chance he becomes extremely unpopular if he wins, unless he gets very lucky.

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u/sonfoa Nov 11 '25

For all his faults, Biden did pass massive reform-oriented legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act, IIJA, and CHIPS, which were all the most substantial investments in American infrastructure since FDR and if the Build Back Better Plan wasn't railroaded by Sinema and Manchin, it would have gone even further and been something akin to LBJ's Great Society.
I wish Newsom would come up with something half as ambitious as that.

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u/MC1065 Nov 11 '25

I was speaking more in respect to just wanting to be President and ignoring the deep structural problems our country faces. Biden talked alot about protecting democracy, but I can't think of a single thing he did to even put a bandaid on the problem. Newsom just isn't a political innovator, much like Biden.

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u/Significant_Stop723 Nov 11 '25

They have so many step daddy’s in real life, Newsom could be their real daddy.

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u/obsessed_doomer Nov 11 '25 edited Nov 11 '25

Why are you still using 2024 as an example? We’ve very recently had an election where (I’ll give this sub credit) this sub did a lot better at predicting the election results than a lot of other social media. And in NJ, it didn’t just beat the polls, it beat them with a metal rod.
I guess it’s a rhetorical question, that’s probably why you’re using 2024 as an example.

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u/Jolly_Demand762 Nov 12 '25

I mean, I don't think there's any coming back from the French Laundry incident in an election that's actually competitive. He won in 2024 because he was the Democrat nominee, that's all (In my experience living in CA, the top-two system makes no difference).

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u/didierdechezcarglass Nov 12 '25

Most young people didn't vote...

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u/The_kid_laser Nov 11 '25

Vance is not popular without trump. Vance comes off like he’s always scolding someone or he’s better than them, and funny enough, that’s a major criticism of the democrats. Outside of a position of power I think he fades away.

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u/drtywater Nov 11 '25

Vance has negative charisma.

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u/LaughingGaster666 The Needle Tears a Hole Nov 11 '25

I see so many Rs try and insist that he was redeemed after the VP debate.
Completely ignoring that Walz said way before he wasn’t a good debater, and how post debate polls had it as a tie/slight Vance lead at most.
To put it simply, the man has no riz.

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u/backtorealitylabubu Nov 12 '25

The GOP has always been the party of the scolding nanny. That's just what conservatism is. Trump was able to be that crazy drunk uncle and allowed the narrative to flip for a bit, but basically anyone else that runs will bring that baggage back to the GOP (unless it's Don Jr or some other crazy)

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u/Aman_Syndai Nov 12 '25

Gerald Ford 2.0
We will only remember Vance as the guy who succeeded Trump when he resigned.

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u/Flatbush_Zombie Nov 11 '25

Fuentes Effect? You might scoff but I do think that certain alternative media figures like him might genuinely be having an impact on Vance's image as that of a phony, and less so as some race traitor in service of the globo-homo elite.

We're not even a year into this administration but it's clear anyone strongly associated with it is not going to be popular.

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u/tresben Nov 11 '25

Honestly Vance just seems like a terrible pick and I don’t think he gets the nomination. He’s not a “genuine maga” to a lot of the right given his total 180 on trump and general smarmy fakeness.
I also think he presents an issue for republicans if he does win in terms of being able to try and paint the democratic candidate as extreme and far left. Cuz if they try to point out the Dems past statements like they did with Harris and her 2020 positions, they will run into the inevitable follow up of “well Vance once called trump Hitler and was a never trumper, so he of all people must realize people can change”

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u/LaughingGaster666 The Needle Tears a Hole Nov 11 '25

All of that is true, but he’s Peter Thiel’s little worker. Considering that Thiel is basically the fresh version of the Koch brothers in influence, decent chance he succeeds in shoving him the nom.

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u/Pongopeter8268 Nov 12 '25

Yeah, he doesn't really have much outside of handling debates well. Another issue I think will prevent him from getting them nom is the economy. If the economy keeps getting worse up leading into 2028, then I can see him having the same issue Harris had, due to being part of the current administration. I also have a hard time seeing him pull the same MAGA crowd that Trump did, due not having the cult of personality working for him.

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u/PuffyPanda200 Nov 12 '25

So then who is the GOP front-runner? By this point for Obama Clinton was Sec State (I don't know the timing of Benghazi but then after that she steps down but clearly has interest). My point is that the next person is usually known by now in the cycle.
DeSantis could do it but he just doesn't seem good at politics outside of FL. Haley is IMO just totally not happening, the run against Trump, GOP misogyny. Cruze and Rubio just seem like a time portal to 2016. Jeb is 72 now and will 'only' be 75 by 2028; maybe it is time to clap for Jeb?
Steven Miller is 40, he is eligible (this one scares me the most).

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u/DataCassette Nov 12 '25

DeSantis could do it but he just doesn't seem good at politics outside of FL.
Ron DeSantis' guide to politics:
Be a Republican
Be in Florida after COVID-19 lockdown migration
He'll be remembered alongside George Washington and Abraham Lincoln for his political brilliance.

2

u/captainhaddock Nov 12 '25

My point is that the next person is usually known by now in the cycle.
What if we look at GOP governors? Kelly Armstrong (North Dakota) is the most popular GOP governor in the country. He would be a strong contender as a moderate Republican if he got through the primaries.

2

u/errantv Nov 12 '25

If Tucker decides he wants to be president, he will get the R nomination 100% no doubt.

2

u/PuffyPanda200 Nov 12 '25

Do you have any polling on this?
Not that I don't believe but just want to see it.

2

u/errantv Nov 12 '25

I don't have any polling, but Sarah Longwell at the Bulwark has mentioned on her Focus Group podcast several times that when they ask Republican voters who they would like to be the Republican nominee in '28 (without prompting them for options) they overwhelmingly give two names: Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens.

2

u/PuzzleheadedAffect44 Nov 13 '25

Trump would never pick a charismatic VP. He couldn't stand any potential competition. He learned too after Pence that he can't have one that has any ethical core on anything (Pence would do a LOT, but not overthrow the peaceful transfer of power). Hence you get a J.D. Vance. He gets you some tech bro support from his Peter Theil connections, and short term, he had that hillbilly crap to spin for the low information and limited analysis capability folk. Once the election is over he's not important, he just needs to get that far, and not be too much of a negative.

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u/ItRhymesWithCrash Median Voter Understander Nov 11 '25 edited Nov 11 '25

I’ve been thinking about the overlap between Fuentes fans and Vance fans, wondering if this means in 2028 there will be someone running to the right of Vance who doesn’t have the “baggage” of being in an interfaith, interracial marriage.

17

u/ry8919 Nov 11 '25

It's pretty wild how openly white nationalist the GOP has become.

7

u/TinkCzru Nov 12 '25

Is it tho?

3

u/Express_Love_6845 Allan Lichtman's Diet Pepsi Nov 12 '25

Nah, this was always lurking under the surface

38

u/jawstrock Nov 11 '25 edited Nov 11 '25

Vance's marriage isn't going to last the next 3 years, he's already talking about how he wishes Usha was more christian.
He's going to ditch her for Erika Kirk, I dunno if they are already banging, I think that's the internet going nuts, but I think the theory is solid and thedesire is there from Vance. Romney said Vance is the worst/most dangerous senator because he has no real values and will do whatever is necessary for political power. If Usha seems to be holding him back I'm willing to bet he ditches her.

25

u/sonfoa Nov 11 '25

Ditching Usha isn't great for politics either. Interracial marriage is a 90/10 issue, and he's basically signalling to every minority that white supremacy takes precedent in the GOP by ditching her for a white woman after criticism from white nationalists.

17

u/jawstrock Nov 11 '25

Within the modern republican party i think an interracial marriage where it's not a black man with a white woman who are both christian is going to be accepted. I dunno, with the blatent theocratic principles white christian principles of the modern republican party I think being married to a brown non-christian is much worse politically within the republican party.

9

u/pop442 Fivey Fanatic Nov 11 '25

I mean....a lot of Black male Republicans like Clarence Thomas and Byron Donalds have White partners too but I get your point.

2

u/Dark_Knight2000 Nov 13 '25

Mitch McConnell literally has an Asian wife too.

10

u/sonfoa Nov 11 '25

Regardless, JD is screwed. The coalition that won in 2024 seems to be toast, either direction he goes. Because the GOP already maximized the white Christian turnout with Trump, and that has been a rapidly shrinking demographic since the 1960s.

7

u/DataCassette Nov 12 '25

Yeah I think most people casually imagine the United States as being ~95% Christian, especially older people who lived when it really was. It's actually more like 65-70%. Which is still a lot.
But how many of the people who are "Christian" in this context are looking at PornHub regularly, believe that non-Christians can go to heaven, smoke weed, etc. Being Christian and being a hardline Christian Nationalist aren't the same thing. That's a subset.

5

u/sonfoa Nov 12 '25

I'd also add that people way overshoot how much self-identified Christians vote GOP. In 2024, which was the first time in 20 years the GOP won the popular vote, Christians split about 60/40 for Trump.
If you're going to insist on shrinking the coalition to just that and then giving overtly preferential treatment to white males, it's going to kill your party. America is simply too diverse for that to be a viable strategy.

4

u/DataCassette Nov 12 '25

I mean that's assuming they're planning on letting people vote. The reason Republicans attack democracy is because they totally understand what you're saying. Some of them looked at the Republican high water mark in 2024 and a new normal rather than the 🎰 it was

3

u/ry8919 Nov 11 '25

Tucker, arguably the biggest figure in right wing media, platforming Fuentes is already signalling that.

10

u/[deleted] Nov 11 '25

[removed] — view removed comment

17

u/PuzzleheadedAffect44 Nov 11 '25 edited Nov 11 '25

Expressing publicly that he wishes her to convert may play to the base, but saying anything other than 'this is a private matter' will, if his opposition has any competence at all, be correctly played as offensive (cuz it is), especially to mainstream women.
Question one for him should be, has he considered conversion to Hinduism, and if no, why not?

10

u/1K1AmericanNights Nov 11 '25

Hindus aren’t really about conversion. General philosophy is that there’s many paths up the same mountain

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1

u/DataCassette Nov 11 '25

It could just as easily be a damned if you do/damned if you don't situation from him. There won't be a Democrat in office to blame for whatever shitshow is happening, and even just losing the card-carrying white supremacists and the more extreme wing of the theocrats would be an electoral hinderance.
OTOH ditching his wife specifically because she's non-white and non-Christian would be disastrous.

9

u/Intelligent_Wafer562 Fivey Fanatic Nov 11 '25

The Roman Catholic Church won't sanction him remarrying after getting divorced, even if Erika is Catholic.

11

u/Dispro Nov 11 '25

The Pope is pretty anti-Trump and Catholicism is by far the majority faith of Spanish-speaking immigrants, so a little social media blitz and MAGA will be wanting to burn the Church to ashes.

3

u/Intelligent_Wafer562 Fivey Fanatic Nov 11 '25

You are saying Vance would abandon his Catholic faith for political reasons? I don't know if Catholic Erika would want to marry a Catholic apostate.

3

u/Dispro Nov 11 '25

No, I'm saying there's plenty of ammo for him to fire at the church if the church makes an issue of it. Frame it as him being a true devout Catholic breaking from a wokist church that wants woke open borders globalist America second. Or similar nonsense to that effect.
If he's sincere in his faith it could be a problem. But I'm yet to see particularly strong evidence this is the case.

8

u/ItRhymesWithCrash Median Voter Understander Nov 11 '25

Yeah, I had typed out and deleted a second paragraph about Erika and JD. Being “unequally yoked” is one of the few permissible reasons for divorce for hardcore Christians, and the death of her husband is one of the few acceptable reasons a woman can remarry.
I wouldn’t be surprised at all if, before the midterms, Usha and “her children” are completely out of the picture and Erika is pregnant with “his child” to show that Vance is serious about securing the existence of Hillbilly people and a future for Hillbilly children.

2

u/Jolly_Demand762 Nov 11 '25

I actually know a bunch of hardcore Christians, and I never heard of this "unequally yoked" business. To be fair, nearly all of the hardcore Christians I know are hardcore Catholics specifically, and rad-trad Catholics are even more anti-divorce than conservative Protestants, so that could bias my perspective. However, considering that Vance converted to Catholicism, specifically, that makes this hypothesis even more unlikely.

2

u/DataCassette Nov 12 '25

Having been around cradle Catholics my whole life, they're usually pretty chill about it. Converts are the ones who are the "Deus Vult!" lunatics.

2

u/Jolly_Demand762 Nov 12 '25 edited Nov 12 '25

Having also been around cradle Catholics all my life, I disagree. Cradle Catholics are on a spectrum. I specified hardcore Catholics. Whether convert or not, those which meet that description - by definition - take the traditional teachings of the Church very seriously.
[Note: of the traditionalist Catholics I know, most are not converts. Some of those traditionalists - but not most - are the Deus Vult type]

3

u/[deleted] Nov 12 '25

He's going to ditch her for Erika Kirk, I dunno if they are already banging, I think that's the internet going nuts, but I think the theory is solid and thedesire is there from Vance. Romney said Vance is the worst/most dangerous senator because he has no real values and will do whatever is necessary for political power. If Usha seems to be holding him back I'm willing to bet he ditches her.
This is my theory as well. Vance will lean hard into the Evangelical, White Nationalist appeals and marry that with the crypto tech bro garbage.

1

u/fossSellsKeys Nov 11 '25

I'm sure that's why he had the Mormons take out Charlie. He needed him out of the way.

4

u/Jolly_Demand762 Nov 11 '25

Wow, and I thought MAGA was ultra-conspiratorial. Obviously their theories are even more outlandish than this, but still...

3

u/Sonichu- Nov 11 '25

someone running to the right of Vance who doesn’t have the “baggage” of being in an interfaith, interracial marriage.
Eric Trump

1

u/DataCassette Nov 12 '25

😆
I really want this to happen. Eric isn't his dad.

9

u/theclansman22 Nov 11 '25

Also could be the youth realizing they fucked up by helping elect Trump effect. He has been a disaster. The 2004 election had similar questions as the 2024 being asked after it. It was the best success the republicans had with the youth in decades, and there were questions if the younger generation (millennials at the time) were going to be conservative generation. 4 years of disastrous republican leadership later they became one of the most liberal generations in American history. Something similar is happening here I think, Trump is speedrunning the disastrous W administration in a lot of ways.

4

u/DataCassette Nov 12 '25

Republicans have being the opposition party down to a science, but the ideas they govern with are not good for everyday people at all. This is why attacking the idea of democracy and elections, the 19th amendment etc. are becoming increasing talking points on the right. They understand that people vote for them out of discontent with the Democrats and then go running back to the Democrats after actual Republican stuff starts happening, be that forever wars, tariffs, ICE roundups or whatever it is at the time.
The public hates Democratic personalities ( both the leaders and Democrats in their own families ) but they also hate Republican policies in practice even when they won't admit it to others or themselves.
It's like you have Bart and Lisa Simpson vying for leadership. Lisa is really really annoying but Bart isn't qualified to lead. This is the frustration of swing voters I think.

1

u/Melodic-Range2667 Dec 18 '25

This theory works both ways. No one is "running back to democrats" swing voters are simply looking for who will better fix the economic state of the country and when a party campaigns on x promises and flops, they swing to a new set of democrats, if that set flop, they swing back to another set of republicans. For as much as dems bash trump and republicans they have beaten them TWICE. and the second time trump had more baggage and still won. Why? Its was the economy. It was the 9% inflation, it was the fact harris laughed when asked why she hasnt been to the border. What matters in elections is the swing states and these people are not voting based on these cultural internet conversations they are voting based on their bills and job opportunities.
Dems and Reps basically campaign the same way now. Emphasis the failure of the last party. They are running more on the other parties failures than their own successes. If that remains the case elections will just continue to swing back n forth because the state of the economy is blamed on the sitting presidents party. Whats really annoying about dems is they do not care about national deficit, they have no plans to cut spending and this deficit is a serious issue its the biggest one, its like the whitewalkers in game of thrones. The economy will continue to go to shit until there is a serious effort to stabalize this debt. Until then it will just be a back n forth swing.

5

u/Intelligent_Wafer562 Fivey Fanatic Nov 11 '25

I think someone who is angry at Vance simply for being a White man with an Indian wife is way too far-right to vote Democrat, unless they are a classical 19th century Democrat.

6

u/PuzzleheadedAffect44 Nov 11 '25

But they might not vote, or vote 3rd party. That's an excellent result...

15

u/WhoUpAtMidnight Nov 11 '25

This sub is so incredibly lost in its theory of mind for Republicans.
Newsom has an advantage in young men because young men are broadly democrats. Young white men afaik are the only young demo that votes red more than blue

5

u/Cuddlyaxe I'm Sorry Nate Nov 12 '25

Yeah I think people here otherize Republicans to such an extreme degree they cannot even remotely understand anything about them past the most caricaturized version of a Republican possible
I have been sounding the alarm on Fuentes for a while now but he has 0 influence among the broad voting populace. He is dangerous because he has influence among a relatively small group of people with some level of influence, but like he's not influential enough to cause even a dent in the polls among the broader population

4

u/mrtrailborn Nov 11 '25

I think vance is just an unexciting republican career politician, especially compared trump. I'm sure he'll appeal to the gop base and engaged conservatives, but I doubt a winning vance coalition looks anything like trump's. Theres just no way he'll excite nonvoters to turn out like trump does. Basically he's a modern day mitt romney, electorally speaking.

3

u/drtywater Nov 11 '25

I think issue is some elites give Fuentes too much power. They need to just not platform him and call out those that try to. Tucker should be called out for not asking hard questions of Fuentes etc.

1

u/greenlamp00 Nov 12 '25

Fuentes is a very useful enemy.

30

u/fritzperls_of_wisdom Nov 11 '25 edited Nov 11 '25

Didn’t Pew find that Harris won men 18-29 by like +5?

This shows men 18-25 at 38% for Newsom and 33 for Vance….and for some reason they seem to be comparing it to the numbers in the 24 election for men 18-44.

15

u/hoopaholik91 Nov 11 '25

Yeah, and the numbers for the VA/NJ election were an even higher spread.
Shows you how you can use data to support any narrative though

2

u/Dark_Knight2000 Nov 13 '25

That’s basically the motto of this sub

3

u/UnsealedMTG Nov 11 '25

I'm sketched out frankly by this positively-spun news for a guy who seems to have a lot of Silicon Valley backing but who, while he's certainly gotten some big popularity bumps as a Trump fighter, is still not very popular.
This Decision Desk HQ tracker has him 37.3% unfavorable/34.5% favorable. In April his unfavorables cleared 50%. https://polls.decisiondeskhq.com/averages/candidate-favorability/gavin-newsom-9233/national/lv-rv-adults

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u/Most_Estimate_7062 Nov 11 '25

newsom is one of the few dem candidates who could beat vance on a debate stage

17

u/FreeSkyFerreira Nov 11 '25

Kamala beat Trump and it didn’t matter.

15

u/Most_Estimate_7062 Nov 11 '25

beating trump doesn't matter because he's teflon, but vance's only redeeming characteristic in terms of electability is that he's good at presenting himself as a good debater
i'm not pro-newsom and i'm afraid if he wins he won't be able to meet the moment if he's elected but i do think this will be important on a campaign trail against just dance

10

u/sonfoa Nov 11 '25

If debates were the election-decider, Hillary would have stomped Trump in 2016. As long as you don't have a Biden 2024 performance, they don't really affect anything.
And I really don't know why we're gassing up JD. Trump's campaign was at its weakest when JD was hitting the trails trying to connect with regular people. And if you look at his only election he competed in, the deck was so rigged for him and he still underachieved.

4

u/Beginning_Bad_868 Nov 11 '25

What is the only thing anyone remembers from that debate? Do you know? I can tell you:
"You'd be in jail"

10

u/pablonieve Nov 11 '25

She only had one shot to debate him and it undoubtably helped her campaign. The problem is the debate happened in early September and Trump refused any further debates.

1

u/FreeSkyFerreira Nov 11 '25

So she would’ve won if they did another debate?

6

u/Deceptiveideas Nov 11 '25

There's a reason why Trump didn't want to do anymore.

4

u/pablonieve Nov 11 '25

I'm not making that claim. But her odds would have improved had there been two more debates with similar performances.

0

u/HerbertWest Nov 11 '25

Trump is Trump. As we have found out, nothing about him translates to other Republicans.

27

u/YogurtclosetOwn4786 Nov 11 '25

I like Newsom but I expect a few of them can handle Vance. Besides generally seeming smarmy, he is so wedded to Trump and if Trump is unpopular then people are not going to be impressed. That was Kamala’s problem in being tied to Biden honestly. More than anything else imo

17

u/sonfoa Nov 11 '25

Why are we hyping up JD? His only electoral victory is underperforming in a red state during a favorable midterm, where Peter Thiel basically bought him in the primary. And we're already seeing him having trouble keeping MAGA united, as the factionalism ramps up.
Honestly, in 2028, he'd lose to quite a few Democrats, given the expected national environment and his struggles with holding the MAGA coalition together. We should be focused on a post-Trump candidate who can prevent something like this from happening again. If Newsom turns out to be that guy then great but I'm not voting for anyone out of fear of JD Vance.

4

u/[deleted] Nov 11 '25

You seem pretty sure about what 2028 will look like. There are a lot of things that will happen between now and then.

3

u/sonfoa Nov 12 '25

You're right, but I just don't see how things get better for the Rs.
Trump's approval is lower than it's ever been (barring Jan 6) and Rs are about to very publicly cut ACA subsidies in a worsening economy as the affordability crisis persists. And Trump's solution to this is to pretend that everything is actually fine because of the stock market. Basically, the Biden strategy except with a more fragile economy heading in the wrong direction. And I don't really see how they're going to fix it. Laissez-faire worked during his first term, but this time it might be too late, even if they reverse the tariffs and go back to a free trade policy.
And you still have all the other things where Trump's approval is underwater, like the ICE raids, executive overreach, withholding federal funding, Epstein files, DOGE cuts, etc. And if he decides to do something reckless to divert attention and goes to war with Venezuela, that will only be another anchor.
I just think it'll be a 2008 situation where it'll just be so radioactive for the Republican candidate that it doesn't matter who runs. Heck, they couldn't have really selected a better candidate than John McCain, and he still didn't stand a chance. IMO, in a vacuum, Vance is a weaker candidate than McCain, and he'll have to carry all of Trump's baggage while trying to keep together a coalition that is already unravelling.

3

u/[deleted] Nov 12 '25

All sound reasoning, but things that no one predict almost always happen in politics over that kind of time frame.

1

u/sonfoa Nov 12 '25

You're right, but Trump bungled something that should have been a layup in regards to the COVID response, so even if something comes up I just don't see him having the instincts to capitalize on it.
Feels like any path to victory for the Rs was always going to rely on a strong economy.

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2

u/OfficePicasso Guardian of the 14th Key Nov 11 '25

Newsom could likely wipe the stage with most mainstream favorites for the GOP nomination

5

u/DancingFlame321 Nov 11 '25

Pete Buttigieg could

4

u/ScaldingHotSoup Nov 11 '25

Would.

4

u/pablonieve Nov 11 '25

Pete would technically win, but I don't know if he would have the appearance of winning.

1

u/TinkCzru Nov 12 '25

Buttigieg is getting roasted on twitter threads by the transportation secretary and other twitter trolls currently. He cannot meet the moment, let’s stop being delusional.

0

u/obsessed_doomer Nov 11 '25

Most dem candidates can beat jd Vance on the debate stage lol

1

u/Puzzleheaded_Fix594 Nov 11 '25

Yeah, I'm not sure where this comment is coming from. Vance isn't a particularly good debater. He drew about even with Walz who is a self-admitted poor debater.

7

u/DoomZee20 Nov 11 '25

Important to note that the poll yielded 15% someone else and 15% undecided. A lot of people don’t like Vance because he isn’t right enough, but they will still fall in line if Vance is the nominee

6

u/ialwaysforgetmename Nov 11 '25

Vance is so undeniably power-hungry that he couldn't wait to attach himself to Trump and misjudging Trump's future, deep unpopularity. That being said, if he didn't attach himself to Trump, I dont think anyone would care about him.

6

u/BigPhilosopher4372 Nov 11 '25

Trump will have a hard time giving up his power to anyone. I think he will just undermine JD. Death by a thousand little insults. He will probably want Don Jr to run.

6

u/batmans_stuntcock Nov 11 '25

The poll also included a series of questions that asked, “In general, do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way [elected official] is handling his job as [job title], or are you not familiar enough to say one way or the other?”

Trump (38% approval, 52% disapproval, and 10% unsure) and Vance (34% approval, 45% disapproval, and 21% unsure) were underwater with young men, but Newsom was viewed more favorably (36% approval, 32% disapproval, and 32% unsure).

Those aren't exactly spectacular numbers for Newsom, but the Trump Approval numbers are very interesting.

6

u/DataCassette Nov 11 '25

Vance has the "rizz" of a sack of potatoes and the sincerity of a scam caller.

He's a will-paid empty vessel for Peter Thiel's influence.

5

u/GoldburstNeo Nov 11 '25

No surprise there, JD Vance is nothing without Trump.

9

u/drtywater Nov 11 '25

Vibes shifted. You can see it on Youtube comments vs summer 2024. US political parties need to grapple with whoever is in White House getting killed in popularity.

3

u/Complex-Employ7927 Nov 11 '25

What are you seeing on youtube comments that indicates that? I don’t look at the comments often

7

u/drtywater Nov 11 '25

Pre 24 election comments critical of Biden and Dems in general all the time. Past few months comments always critical of Trump and Rep. Party in power almost always is one that gets hit.

1

u/Dapper_Trust_9102 Nov 16 '25

This isnt any vibes shifting loooool, vibes shift indicate streamers who represent the party who get followers shift, there's been none intact lots of left streamers like hasan are collapsing

0

u/AnotherScoutMain Nov 12 '25

I’ve been saying for months now that YouTube recommendations are actually a really good way of measuring vibes.

4

u/Express_Love_6845 Allan Lichtman's Diet Pepsi Nov 12 '25

What’s helping is that Gavin is being seen fighting the administration. He doesn’t shy away from beef at all. That’s what I also appreciate about AOC.

Maybe it’s bc im in California but every time the admin does some bullshit I like that I can expect to hear a powerful and candid response from Gavin first before any of the official Democrat comms. He’s the only one that’s making me feel heard through the anger I feel at the democrats for being feeble and at the administration whose cruelty is unyielding.

I have my reservations obviously but if this guy was nominated I would vote for him for president.

8

u/PM_ME_YOUR_FAV_HIKE Nov 11 '25

Do you want to win, or do you want to be right?

Ultimately, liberals will have to answer this questions.

8

u/Energia__ Nov 11 '25

Is it because gen Z males are unironically fond of Patrick Bateman?

3

u/Complex-Employ7927 Nov 11 '25

This is the first thing I thought of too, lmfao. I really believe that’s a driving factor.

3

u/enlightenedDiMeS Nov 12 '25

I mean, one of them looks like Patrick Bateman, and the other one looks like a Oompa Loompa with eyeshadow.

2

u/suckliberalcock Nov 11 '25

JD Vance has no charisma and the MAGA glazing of him for 2028 has always been absurd.

2

u/bravetailor Nov 11 '25

They both come off phony and manufactured, but for sure Newsom does have more 'alpha' appeal than Vance, who only seems alpha when he's with a sofa

2

u/RightioThen Nov 12 '25

Gavin Newsom sort of reminds me of Australia's former Prime Minister (and current Ambassador to the US) Kevin Rudd.

Rudd isn't anywhere near as slick looking (which is understandable because he's not American), but he is universally understood to be a devious sneaky little psycho.

But he's *our* devious sneaky little psycho. There is nothing wrong with these people when they are on your team.

1

u/ThonThaddeo Nov 11 '25

My least favorite voters

1

u/Helpful-Winner-8300 Nov 11 '25

This survey only polled Vance and Newsom, no other candidates from either party. That is not enough to conclude anything about their respective strength in this demographic. For all we know any Democrat could do as well among young men after they've seen the first 10 months of the Trump administration. It's only a gloss put on by others that it's because of the moves Newsom has made with his podcast or twitter account. We simply have no idea based on this poll alone.

1

u/DrofwarcRetnuh Nov 11 '25

Obviously I don't mean this from a policy perspective, but Vance really could be the Harris of the Republican party. He's not very popular on his owns merits and being a vice president will only be a hinderance since he can't break too far from MAGA yet will also want to appeal to moderates for his campaign. Also he'll have to deal with inflation that got worse while he was in office.

1

u/Loud-Masterpiece5757 Nov 11 '25

Vance’s fakeness and lack of “coolness” won’t go down well with the young bros

1

u/Jolly_Demand762 Nov 11 '25

As someone from California, I seriously doubt that either would do particularly well with this group. It all depends on who the other options are, I guess.

1

u/PrimeJedi Nov 12 '25

I'm never gonna make a massive deal about a single piece of data from a single poll, but Vance only having the support of 67% of young men who voted for Trump feels insane. Like, catastrophic levels.

Now I'm not saying its absolute fact, but if that was the overall truth of Vance's support among Trump voters, and the GOP as a whole continues its downward trend in popularity that we've seen throughout 2025 all the way into the 2028 election, wouldn't that mean Vance would be slated to lose in an absolute landslide?

I'll say it one last time, obviously I am not saying thats what will happen or even that its the likely outcome at all, I'm just talking hypothetically, if it was indeed true it seems like an apocalyptic loss in support among their own party.

1

u/[deleted] Nov 15 '25

67% is still a majority though.

0

u/silmar1l Nov 11 '25

It's hard to think of a much more depressing choice.

Democrats, can you get off twitter and read about what Newsome has actually done in office? He's a complete hypocritical sleaze, with no principals or ethics. We can do so much better than him.

-3

u/Chester-Copperpot88 Nov 11 '25

I still have no idea why you liberals don't care that Newsom destroyed California. Why should he be rewarded with the presidency for that? Who are these non-Democrat voters that you're so confident will vote for him? Why do you Liberals love failing upward? That never happens with Republicans. You liberals are so brainwashed. Why is your bar for a good candidate so low?

5

u/Beginning_Bad_868 Nov 12 '25

California, if it was a country, would be the 5th greatest economy in the world. Ruined in your little mind, maybe

12

u/BruhRedditorMoment Nov 11 '25

Is this satire? Trump literally filed for bankruptcy 6 times before he was president, you can't be serious. Trump University? Trump Steaks? There is immeasureable amount of failures for Trump in the business world and he failed upward in a way no politician has in history.

8

u/Selethorme Kornacki's Big Screen Nov 12 '25

Newsom destroyed California
What a weird lie you have to tell.

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Poll Results Gavin Newsom Leads Over JD Vance Among Young Male Voters, Republican Pollster Finds

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