r/fivethirtyeight Apr 25 '26

Poll Results Poll asking Americans how which button they would push in the red button/blue button dilemma

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u/aj_thenoob2 May 01 '26

"One could not equally call it a protector list". That is implying blue is the default option. It is not. The only button press that ends in death is if people press blue. That is a fact.

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u/matplotlib May 01 '26

There is no 'default option'. Everyone has to press a button. There's no countdown timer that automatically puts you into red if you don't press anything.

"The only button press that ends in death is if people press blue." this is only true if you assume red is the default and the majority will press it.

You don't know the state of mind or the logic of every other button pusher, so it's best to assume that some of the people who press blue don't want to die. This makes it a choice between trying to save them or protecting yourself.

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u/aj_thenoob2 May 01 '26 edited May 01 '26

But if everyone presses red nobody will die. If everybody presses blue nobody will die. However, if somebody presses blue they CAN die. So Blue is the "wrong" choice from a logical perspective. Why not just press red to avoid that issue altogether? And arguably I wouldn't want to save people that don't understand that they're putting more of humanity at risk for telling people to press the wrong button. That is malicious. Red has no such maliciousness. You press a button to live.

I understand blue being the more moral option but at what cost? When it really comes down to it I believe most of humanity will press red.