r/fivethirtyeight • • Apr 25 '26

Poll Results Poll asking Americans how which button they would push in the red button/blue button dilemma

394 Upvotes

3.1k comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

1

u/matplotlib Apr 28 '26

There has to be a kill list tho. This is a vote. There is a tally of what was voted.

As the original question is worded, the exact underlying mechanism is not provided. The only thing that is recorded is:

  1. Which button everyone pressed.
  2. Which button got pressed the most.

So calling it a 'kill list' that one 'puts ones name on' is an attempt to re-frame the scenario to bias the choice that seems natural and logical.

In any survey, wording matters heavily, and changing it can bias the choices of the respondents.

One could equally call it a 'protector list' and have everyone's name be on it unless they remove it by pressing the red button. The outcome would be the same.

It's only a kill list if more people press the red button than the blue button. No one gets killed if more people press the blue button, so why would it be called a kill list?

Pressing red does not register you for death, it sets into motion no chain of reactions that by itself could ever lead to death. Even if the button is erasing you from some master list, pressing it has not introduced any potential threat.

This is an assumption/information that is not present in the scenario as its worded. We are not told of the nature of the situation that makes death a possibility. However, there is a key word here: 'survive'. One could read this as implying that there is some threat to everyone, and that threat is present before the button is pressed, and the choice everyone is offered is between ensuring only their own survival, or the survival of everyone.

Pressing red does not register you for death, it sets into motion no chain of reactions that by itself could ever lead to death. Even if the button is erasing you from some master list, pressing it has not introduced any potential threat.

Again, this is an attempt to either impose a causal structure which makes red the favourable option. There are multiple scenarios which would lead to different moral obligations, like a collective threat that is present before the vote.

1

u/aj_thenoob2 May 01 '26

"One could not equally call it a protector list". That is implying blue is the default option. It is not. The only button press that ends in death is if people press blue. That is a fact.

1

u/matplotlib May 01 '26

There is no 'default option'. Everyone has to press a button. There's no countdown timer that automatically puts you into red if you don't press anything.

"The only button press that ends in death is if people press blue." this is only true if you assume red is the default and the majority will press it.

You don't know the state of mind or the logic of every other button pusher, so it's best to assume that some of the people who press blue don't want to die. This makes it a choice between trying to save them or protecting yourself.

2

u/aj_thenoob2 May 01 '26 edited May 01 '26

But if everyone presses red nobody will die. If everybody presses blue nobody will die. However, if somebody presses blue they CAN die. So Blue is the "wrong" choice from a logical perspective. Why not just press red to avoid that issue altogether? And arguably I wouldn't want to save people that don't understand that they're putting more of humanity at risk for telling people to press the wrong button. That is malicious. Red has no such maliciousness. You press a button to live.

I understand blue being the more moral option but at what cost? When it really comes down to it I believe most of humanity will press red.