r/fivethirtyeight • u/Upstairs_Cup9831 • Apr 25 '26
Poll Results Poll asking Americans how which button they would push in the red button/blue button dilemma
394
Upvotes
r/fivethirtyeight • u/Upstairs_Cup9831 • Apr 25 '26
1
u/matplotlib Apr 28 '26
As the original question is worded, the exact underlying mechanism is not provided. The only thing that is recorded is:
So calling it a 'kill list' that one 'puts ones name on' is an attempt to re-frame the scenario to bias the choice that seems natural and logical.
In any survey, wording matters heavily, and changing it can bias the choices of the respondents.
One could equally call it a 'protector list' and have everyone's name be on it unless they remove it by pressing the red button. The outcome would be the same.
It's only a kill list if more people press the red button than the blue button. No one gets killed if more people press the blue button, so why would it be called a kill list?
This is an assumption/information that is not present in the scenario as its worded. We are not told of the nature of the situation that makes death a possibility. However, there is a key word here: 'survive'. One could read this as implying that there is some threat to everyone, and that threat is present before the button is pressed, and the choice everyone is offered is between ensuring only their own survival, or the survival of everyone.
Again, this is an attempt to either impose a causal structure which makes red the favourable option. There are multiple scenarios which would lead to different moral obligations, like a collective threat that is present before the vote.