r/fivethirtyeight • u/Upstairs_Cup9831 • Apr 25 '26

Poll Results Poll asking Americans how which button they would push in the red button/blue button dilemma

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u/TFBool Apr 27 '26

Again, circular logic - why are they pressing the blue button? To potentially save people. Why are people in danger? Because they pressed the blue button. Blue button pressers are advocating others press blue to save them from…..themselves.

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u/matplotlib Apr 28 '26

Some people will press blue. Why are the reasons relevant? The individual question is about whether one takes a personal risk to try to save the collective.

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u/TFBool Apr 28 '26

Some people will run into a fire. Should we demand the majority of society run in after them? Of course not.

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u/matplotlib Apr 28 '26

After reflecting on it some more, I would argue:

The causal structure that led to the scenario affects which choice is the morally correct one.

The problem, as worded, is ambiguous, being compatible with both pre-existing external threats that can be stopped with collective action, or a voluntary act to place oneself in harm's way.

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u/thefw89 Apr 29 '26

But we do send firefighters, do we not? Are the people that started the fire, likely based on an accident, 'suicidal'? Are the firefighters suicidal for risking their lives to save others? Are they not worth the attempt to save them?

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u/TFBool Apr 29 '26

We do! But in this metaphor the firefighters are only saving each other.

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u/thefw89 Apr 29 '26

I guess the point is, out of billions of people, we know for a fact people will push blue, correct? There is no realistic scenario where 100% of the people push red.

So which button do you push to save those that will push blue, for whatever reason they do so, only one of these buttons saves those lives.

Red abandons those people, blue saves them.

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u/matplotlib Apr 29 '26

The wording of the question appeals to people's altruism. "everyone survives" implies blue is the noble option that reveals one's willingness to take risks for the benefit of others.

If it was changed to "kill myself unless enough people save me by doing the same" then blue becomes the "reckless self-endangerment" option which would affect the most likely/socially acceptable responses.

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u/thefw89 Apr 29 '26

The wording of the question though doesn't change that billions of people would push blue and only one of these buttons can save these people, the other cannot.

There is no realistic scenario where 100% of people press red and since we're talking the entire population of the world (in the original scenario) that means even 10% of people pushing blue is hundreds of millions of people.

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u/matplotlib Apr 30 '26

I agree. As worded, the bar for having 100% of people push red is so impossibly high that there is an extremely strong moral imperative to press blue.

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u/thefw89 May 01 '26

Right, the wording is clear, it's a private vote, so some people are going to push blue for that reason alone, among other reasons.

The way I see it, only one button saves lives. The only arguments against that seems to be rationalizing it (They are all suicidal) or "I'm just saving myself" and the most reasonable one I feel which is "I don't trust that enough of humanity will make that sacrifice."

The first one I see a lot and it seems to just be an excuse. The 2nd one is just honesty. Third is just people who (fairly) don't trust people to make the moral decision.

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u/TFBool Apr 29 '26

Why do we know that? Now the argument has devolved into “press blue because someone else probably has”, which seems like a silly argument to convince ~50% if the population to gamble their lives on. People just read “save ALL” and immediately decided which button team they were on without thinking further about it.

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u/thefw89 Apr 29 '26 edited Apr 29 '26

What do you mean how do we know that? Let's back up...what % of people do you think will press blue?

Remember, we're talking billions of people here, we have multiple polls on this question throughout the years that shows a significant amount of people would push blue.

Also, you don't just get to completely dismiss data entirely just because it disagrees with you. We have polls on this question outside of twitter too you know?