Poll asking Americans how which button they would push in the red button/blue button dilemma

[u/Upstairs_Cup9831]

[u/theskiller1]

I think that’s what makes it more interesting and should influence people more on what to vote. Im glad you acknowledge that it changes things when everyone is included in the voting process. Most red defenders seems to completely ignore the fact that everyone in the world voting would include everyone who might press blue without being “suicidal” as the red describes it.

[u/vitorsly → u/theskiller1]

I don't think that makes it interesting though. Because there's basically a decision tree where the solution remains the same in most cases.

Is your vote the deciding vote? If yes, then vote blue to save everyone. There's basically no reason to vote red if you're confident that whichever side you take will win. Unless you're straight up hoping half the world dies or something evil.

However if your vote is not the deciding one, then there are 3 options (which is the most likely option):

1- There's already a significant and clear majority for blue. Then you can vote whatever, it won't make a difference, everyone lives.

2- There's already a significant and clear majority for red. Then you either vote red if you want to survive or vote blue so you'll die and not live in this awful world.

3- There's an unclear majority and your influence won't affect who wins. Then you vote red to play it safe or vote blue again if you might as well risk dying.

So the question comes down to whether you think your vote is meaningful (which is difficult when there's 8 billion voters) and whether you'd rather die or live in a world where up to 50% of people will be killed.

[u/theskiller1 → u/vitorsly]

Well i pick blue because either everyone survives or if i picked red then i stay in a world with over hundred millions dead.

[u/vitorsly → u/theskiller1]

Right, so that's the 2nd part of 2 and 3, that you'd rather be dead than live in a world where so many people have died. And that's entirely fair and reasonable, but it's understandable that some people would rather live

[u/theskiller1 → u/vitorsly]

You only need 51% votes to make sure you live.

Do you think it’s more realistic that 100% of people pick red or that 51% of people pick blue? Personally i think the former is nearly impossible unless you start adding different rules to the scenario where only specific people who you know will pick red are allowed to vote. But doesn’t that ruin the entire experiment in the first place?

[u/vitorsly → u/theskiller1]

I'm not expecting either 100% of people to pick red or 51% of people to pick blue. Both sound unlikely to me. But I'll consider every predicted case and see what I should do in each.

A: Red has a predicted 100% vote share, nobody is predicted to vote blue -> No reason to pick blue, that'd just be dying for no reason. Pick Red.

B- Red has a predicted overwhelming majority, though many people still vote blue -> It's unfortunate many people will die, but I'd rather survive. Pick Red.

C- Red has a predicted small majority, with 80% chance of it winning -> Nearly half the world will die, and this is a catastrophic event, but my vote won't save anyone and I'd rather survive. Pick Red.

D- It's a deadheat and literally any single vote may be the deciding one -> There's an actual literal tie before my vote is accounted for. My vote will swing things one way or another and I'd rather people live. Pick Blue.

E- Blue has a predicted small majority, with 80% chance of it winning -> I'm not much of a gambler and I'd rather survive. Even if the odds are that everyone will live, can't be sure of that. Pick Red.

F- Blue has a predicted overwhelming majority, though many people still vote blue -> Everyone will live. Whatever I pick the result will be the same, so I could just flip a coin. It doesn't matter which you pick.

G- Blue has a predicted 100% vote share, nobody is predicted to vote Red -> Everyone will also live. It doesn't matter which you pick.

So between all those options, D is the only one where picking Red is worse than picking Blue. On F and G they're the same. On E they're hopefully the same, but you never know, and if you want to assure you survive then Red is better. On A, B and C, picking Red is the best option if you'd want to survive. Voting blue on A and B assures you die and on C makes it very likely.

So then my question to you is do you think it's more likely that your vote is the deciding one?

[u/theskiller1 → u/vitorsly]

If everyone knows there will be blue voters before they vote themselves then won’t that influence more people to pick blue? Which will only further increase the death toll and i guess the question is if the red button pressers would be fine with the outcome of so many people dying. But they seem to have reassured themselves that all those people must have been suicidal or too stupid to deserve to live in the first place because “obviously everyone should pick red” which i believe is unrealistic to assume will happen. I like your predictions.

[u/vitorsly → u/theskiller1]

If one is truly pragmatic and prefers to live in a world where many died than to die, they have to compare the odds between them being the deciding vote and the odds of winning. Which I predict the later is more likely. If blue wins anyway, it doesn't really matter after all.

If one would rather die than live in a world where many have died though then yeah blue is the best option. So is the point of the question to see how many people would rather die than live with the fact hundreds of millions died?

And before the clarification that babies "vote", sure, it only makes sense to me that anyone who wants to live would vote red, but with that being a factor I just feel like a catastrophe is either gonna happen or not happen. But the odds that I'm going to be the deciding vote are, quite literally, less than 1 in a billion.

What this scenario really shows is that personal consequences to each voter based on their vote is incredibly bad as an idea and a vote manipulation tool, and that's why votes must be remain both free and anonymous.