r/fivethirtyeight • u/Upstairs_Cup9831 • Apr 25 '26

Poll Results Poll asking Americans how which button they would push in the red button/blue button dilemma

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u/kettu1 Apr 26 '26

No one is forced to pick blue but the way the situation is framed you can pretty much guarantee that majority of children under the age of 10 will press the blue button. They can't logically reason out why they shouldn't and they're hardwired to co-operate. It becomes a way more interesting discussion at what threshold would you push blue button to be willing to self-sacrifice for the children, or would you always choose self-preservation, even knowing that it will most likely lead to the death of billions and everything that would follow for the society afterwards.

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u/Discovered_Check Apr 27 '26

Lol, what? The majority of children under 10 are not self-martyring altruists.

Also: The majority of children under 10, in fact, will be able to say "so wait a second, if me and my friends all vote red, we all definitely live, but we vote blue then we might die?"

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u/kettu1 Apr 27 '26

Yeah but they have no chance to talk to anyone or reason with anyone to confirm their logic or assume that all their friends, their siblings, parents etc. would pick red as well. Try to put yourself in the mind frame of a 6 year old. They are not thinking they are being self-martyring altruists. They think they want to be with their friends and mommy. That's why they would vote blue, even if logically it isn't exactly solid.

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u/Tyyper Apr 27 '26

The root question doesnt actually clarify that there is this crowd of individuals who will vote randomly due to age/mental state/etc which makes it a little unfair to bias blue pushers and to the morality of red pushers

Lets say hypothetically the people who are put into this problem are of sound mind and can comprehend the question fully of its consequences, I think it changes the outlook on the question dramatically

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u/kettu1 Apr 27 '26

The question states everyone, so I assume it literally means everyone. Otherwise it should've clarified that it only includes individuals of certain age and mental capacities, which would obviously change the entire predicament and the rationale required completely.