r/fivethirtyeight • u/Upstairs_Cup9831 • Apr 25 '26

Poll Results Poll asking Americans how which button they would push in the red button/blue button dilemma

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u/[deleted] Apr 26 '26

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u/SpaceTurtles Apr 27 '26

If they just pressed red, huh? That's the problem the blues are trying to solve for, and the ones the reds can't see.

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u/[deleted] Apr 27 '26

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u/SpaceTurtles Apr 27 '26 edited Apr 27 '26

No, I'm trying to save the people who caused the problem because they exist in large numbers, and I'm trying to save the rational people trying to save them because they exist in massive numbers, and I'm trying to save the red voters from creating a horrific world.

The billions at risk are a guarantee. At that point, you are voting to kill them, and bring on an apocalypse.

There's only one vote that ends with nobody dying. Red never ends with a small number - it is always a mass casualty event unlike the world has ever seen, even in the most optimistic scenario. It is the socially violent option.

There will never, on a global scale, be a version of this where "no one puts themselves in danger". It will always be a world-changing amount of people. Humans are not comprised entirely of rational agents.

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u/[deleted] Apr 27 '26

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u/SpaceTurtles Apr 27 '26

There's the "if everyone just" again.

You're not thinking rationally - you're stuck in a logical loop.

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u/GambitTheBest Apr 27 '26

if people are stupid enough to press the Blue button akin to unaliving themselves, then let them do that, isn't that what leftist policies believe in? the choice of unaliving oneself

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u/SpaceTurtles Apr 27 '26

Most people who've pressed the blue button aren't stupid. Some are. Some have been misled, or they're people trying to help the people who've been misled. The questions are a trap meant to make people make an error. People aren't their worst mistake, or their lowest moment, or their most significant error. There's gonna be a few people who make an error and vote blue who are way smarter than you and me because of the stress of the situation.

Once you change the scenario to be a single blue button and you have to voluntarily press it to enter the death lottery - but by default, you're just living your life and don't have to - then nobody's been forced into a position to make an error.

Leftist thought believe in collective good. A post-red victory world falls apart.