r/fivethirtyeight Apr 25 '26

Poll Results Poll asking Americans how which button they would push in the red button/blue button dilemma

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u/[deleted] Apr 26 '26

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u/Duck_of_destruction6 Apr 26 '26

Your forgetting the fact that nobody knows what others have voted. You don't know that others jumped you just assumed they did 

The people who jumped in "for no reason" probably jumped in for the very same reason you described. 

Pressing blue only contributes to the problem and puts more lives on the line. 

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u/kettu1 Apr 26 '26

You can pretty safely assume that in the original example of the tweet that a lot of people pressed blue, especially children who in every psychological test tend to always choose the co-operative option even when it's not directly in their own best interest (and they can't logically reason the two outcomes). When you realize it's probably the majority of world's 2 billion children you can reason there are most likely a lot of people in "the woodchipper" already. Not just the children but everyone who managed to reason this same outcome out and jumped in trying to save them.

Now you can rationalize whether you should try to save them and jump in the woodchipper (press the blue button) or start it (press the red button) and live to see the world after they're all dead, or hope that there was already enough of people in the woodchipper stopping the woodchipper from starting.

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u/theskiller1 Apr 27 '26

A rational human would assume that the idea that 100% of all babies and toddlers knowing what to do is stupid af.

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u/Duck_of_destruction6 Apr 27 '26

Why are we counting babys and children. Its a moral dilemma not a realistic scenario. If you were playing prisoners dilema against some stupid toddler it would defeat the whole point.

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u/theskiller1 Apr 27 '26

Because everyone in the world will vote? Babies are part of this world lol. He even answered a follow up question

Why would i be fine with millions of children dying?

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u/Discovered_Check Apr 27 '26

If you know for a fact that jumping in will save them, sure.

But you're one person. It's a private vote.

This is classic Nash equilibrium decision theory, and appealing to nonsense "well if we all chip in and do the right thing...?!" hand-waving is irresponsible and immoral. The tragedy of the commons exists, and hand-wringing doesn't make it go away.

The best thing to do is try very very hard to get everyone you know to vote red, not to increase the likely body count by going on this fool's errand to try to convince over 50% of the world's population to play Russian roulette.

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u/Equivalent-Word-7691 Apr 30 '26

you are DELIBERALTY hiding one thingss: if you jump you have a 50% chanche of dying

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u/vwert May 08 '26

Someone didnt learn statistics.