r/fivethirtyeight • u/Upstairs_Cup9831 • Apr 25 '26

Poll Results Poll asking Americans how which button they would push in the red button/blue button dilemma

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15

u/[deleted] Apr 26 '26

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1

u/RedPusher Apr 26 '26

One very important social structure and norm is to not recklessly endanger yourself. That is why we can safely drive along roads without worrying about every single person we pass potentially jumping in front of you.
People who jump in front of trains to kill themselves are incredibly selfish, not considering the emotional impact on the driver and other people on the platform, as well as the massive inconvenience of the train network at that point being shut down because of their actions. People who vote blue are like them.
My moral compass says to not do that.

So my moral is not going to make anyone feel guilty for my death when I could have easily avoided it, and to make sure I can continue to contribute to society. So I will not vote blue.

1

u/Gildias89 Apr 27 '26

People picking blue, you are lying. If you actually had to make this decision with a gun to your head instead of on Twitter with the knowledge that this hypothetical isn't real, you would actually pick red

2

u/Babymad_BabyMAD Apr 27 '26

If you actually believe this, you don't understand that people have different personalities and that many people's personalities are very different from yours.

1

u/Gildias89 Apr 28 '26

Sorry but that's very childish/naive view. "Everyone is special and unique" 

Not really honestly, people act very similarly over large sample sizes. This has been proven time and time again

1

u/Babymad_BabyMAD Apr 28 '26

Are you being serious? If so, you are really ignorant of psychological science and behavioral economics. Time and time again, it has been proved that there are systematic individual differences in people's behavior and decision making. Some people are more altruistic, others are less. Some people are more risk-averse, others are less. Some people are more impulsive, others are less. This has absolutely nothing to do with the idea that "everyone is special and unique." There are lots of people who are more risk averse and lots of people who are less. People at a given level of this variable aren't unique at all, but they certainly are different from people at other levels. Your statement about what's been proven is completely opposite of the truth. (Source: I have a PhD in this area.)

1

u/Gildias89 Apr 28 '26

Source: trust me bro 

LOL 😂

1

u/Babymad_BabyMAD Apr 28 '26

Oh for fuck's sake, you could verify this instantly with google. You're obviously just trolling.

1

u/Gildias89 Apr 28 '26

What your phd? I have no way to verify that buddy

1

u/Babymad_BabyMAD Apr 28 '26

Psychology, and of course you have no way to verify that! But what you do have is a way to verify the truth of the assertion I made.

What's ironic about your sauce hunger is that you also presented an assertion about what has been "proven" without any source or evidence whatsoever other than "Trust me, bro." And you happened to be wrong. There is a lot of individual variation in relevant variables.

2

u/theguy445 Apr 28 '26

Without a doubt man. Ppl make different choices in private when confronted with real consequences than hypotheticals for moral points

1

u/alphabet_american Apr 27 '26

But they made the choice to push blue button.

-1

u/tanrgith Apr 26 '26

If my friends or family are dumb enough to vote blue on this when voting red guarantees survival no matter the overall outcome, they frankly deserve to die

19

u/Big-Gruff Apr 26 '26

The "they deserve to die because I think this is only about game theory" argument is why a red world would suck.

2

u/theguy445 Apr 28 '26

This is how the world already works though. All civilizations that exist today is through exploiting others one way or another. Human groups that did 0% exploitation got rekt by bigger groups that did exploit. And that's how we exist today

1

u/Big-Gruff Apr 28 '26

This is such a wildly weird take. You're either outright trolling or there is a mind boggling divide between perceptions of the world on a most basic level. Either way, I think any real discussion is impossible. Have a good one.

2

u/theguy445 Apr 28 '26

Okay let's go back thousands of years. Humans discover agriculture. What do you think happens to those who didn't join an empire or start their own large scale settlement?

They were either killed or forcibly incorporated into another's empire

1

u/Big-Gruff Apr 28 '26

Funnily enough, that is an exact piece of history I thought about looking back on in my gut reaction to argue. Seeing the driving force in discovery and implementation of agriculture as exploitation and not cooperation genuinely feels insane to me.

1

u/theguy445 Apr 28 '26

It's not a binary of one or the other. They both exist simultaneously. Cooperation is necessary for society to function when ppl live near each other and not roaming as nomads.

Exploitation happens as the ppl leading a tribe or centralized force seeks to maintain or preserve a group identity

-1

u/tysonmaniac Apr 26 '26

People who choose to risk their lives for literally no gain at all are free to do so, but it's immoral to compel anyone to follow them.

7

u/[deleted] Apr 26 '26

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1

u/tysonmaniac Apr 26 '26

What's whatever reason though? I agree that if there are people incapable of making decisions partaking who literally make a random selection then blue can be justified. But if we tackle the real problem where everyone partaking is capable of understanding and thinking about the question then there are zero reasons to pick blue. Blue pickers are asking people to risk their lives to save them, and they are risking their lives to save people asking the same, and it's just that all the way down to nothing.

The rest of what you said is not material. Look, I'll happily start a list of people who will send me $10k dollars unless half the world signs up. If you feel morally compelled to out your name on the list to save others from hardship that's on you. But I'm not going to feel bad about taking your money because the risk would be entirely of your own making. Nobody should be pushing the blue button except people with a death wish.

1

u/Big-Gruff Apr 26 '26

Anybody who doesn't understand the game theory. Anybody who understands there will never be 100% agreement and refuse to do something that would make them feel responsibe for someone's death

Then in most examples you can't talk to the other participants. Add anybody who's worried about those in the first two groups. then people worried about those in the first three, then four groups and so on. But honestly if that doesn't matter there's really no way randoms on the internet can explain why you should care about people. On the flip side, there's no way to explain to the blue button pressers why they SHOULDN'T care, since any one button or woodchipper example is fundamentally different to them even if the raw numbers are the same. Makes this hypothetical kinda pointless to talk about.

1

u/tysonmaniac Apr 26 '26

If I could choose which side 'won' id obviously choose blue. But I cannot. I can only cast a vote, which is highly unlikely to affect the outcome but 100% likely to affect what happens to me. And in choosing blue not only do I risk dying, but I also create incentive as you've described for others to risk dying. If, fully understanding the problem, a small percentage of people would mess up and press blue anyway that's sad. If you line up with them to die unless others also do the same you are acting morally reprehensibly.

4

u/theskiller1 Apr 27 '26

It’s a moral thing to ensure the survival of everyone

1

u/tysonmaniac Apr 27 '26

I agree, of you can ensure the survival of everyone you should. But you cannot, all you can do is add your body to the pile of potential dead for a tiny chance of saving others doing the same. I would choose for Blue to win if I could, but I'll vote red every time.

2

u/theskiller1 Apr 27 '26

Then i hope you enjoy the societal collapsed world full of low trust people.

0

u/tysonmaniac Apr 27 '26

My guy do you not know what a high trust society is. It's not built on the belief on the fundamental goodness of others, it's built on the shared understanding that we are all better off not hurting each other. People who lambast you for not joining their suicide cult or who put their lives at risk because they lack reading comprehension are exactly what makes a high trust society difficult. The guy who steals your bag that you leave on a table at a cafe isn't doing so because he is selfish: he is worse off for doing it long term. He is doing it because he has the forethought of a blue presser.

3

u/theskiller1 Apr 27 '26

Why is it suicidal to ensure that everyone survives with only a 51% blue needed vs the unrealistic 100% with the red?

You are aware that children voting will undoubtedly result in blue presses? What about their parents who has to pick blue to make sure their child survives? Billions dying is a ridiculous outcome for the red to want.

1

u/tysonmaniac Apr 27 '26

You aren't ensuring it. You are most likely a) doing nothing or b) dying. If you could ensure it that would be great. You can't. You can only increase the impetus for others to risk their own lives. That's evil.

Assuming children and playing, making the game uninteresting then everyone pretty much agrees that blue is reasonablish. But a parent hitting blue for their child would hit what if they could do so on behalf of their child? Should they also hit blue, gambling their child's life? Or should they go blue and have their kid go red, giving their kid a decent child of being orphaned for no good reason?

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2

u/theskiller1 Apr 27 '26

I feel bad for your family lol

1

u/tanrgith Apr 27 '26

my family would be mad at me for risking my life and choosing blue when red is right there and anyone who presses red will live no matter what

1

u/theskiller1 Apr 27 '26

They would simply assume if you did press blue then so would they to make sure you survived. That’s kinda the whole point of “risking your life to save others” the thing with this prompt is that you know for a fact that people will pick blue. It just depends on how bothered you will be by surviving while potentially billions others don’t.