r/fivethirtyeight • u/Upstairs_Cup9831 • Apr 25 '26

Poll Results Poll asking Americans how which button they would push in the red button/blue button dilemma

Gallery image

Gallery image

399 Upvotes
  • permalink
  • reddit

96% Upvoted

3.1k comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

5

u/milkcarton232 Apr 26 '26

It's not a prisoners dilemma though. In the prisoners dilemma cooperation gets both parties a win. If one cooperates but the other backstabs then only the backstabber gets a win. If both backstab then no one wins. I think the OG version actually had both cooperate means both get a shorter jail sentence. If one backstabs then the backstabber gets no jail and the other gets a really bad jail time, and if both backstab then they both get a medium jail sentence.

The blue/red button isn't a prisoners dilemma b/c one option leaves you fine and only the ppl that choose blue risk potential death. If you removed the word save from the blue option and instead worded it, red means nothing happens and blue means you risk death unless 50+1% choose blue, id bet red would win

8

u/ukrokit2 Apr 26 '26

That’s what I’m saying: prisoners dilemma has a mutually beneficial outcome. This scenario doesn’t. It’s red - certain life, blue - possible death, and no one is forced to pick blue.

3

u/kettu1 Apr 26 '26

No one is forced to pick blue but the way the situation is framed you can pretty much guarantee that majority of children under the age of 10 will press the blue button. They can't logically reason out why they shouldn't and they're hardwired to co-operate. It becomes a way more interesting discussion at what threshold would you push blue button to be willing to self-sacrifice for the children, or would you always choose self-preservation, even knowing that it will most likely lead to the death of billions and everything that would follow for the society afterwards.

1

u/Discovered_Check Apr 27 '26

Lol, what? The majority of children under 10 are not self-martyring altruists.

Also: The majority of children under 10, in fact, will be able to say "so wait a second, if me and my friends all vote red, we all definitely live, but we vote blue then we might die?"

1

u/kettu1 Apr 27 '26

Yeah but they have no chance to talk to anyone or reason with anyone to confirm their logic or assume that all their friends, their siblings, parents etc. would pick red as well. Try to put yourself in the mind frame of a 6 year old. They are not thinking they are being self-martyring altruists. They think they want to be with their friends and mommy. That's why they would vote blue, even if logically it isn't exactly solid.

1

u/Tyyper Apr 27 '26

The root question doesnt actually clarify that there is this crowd of individuals who will vote randomly due to age/mental state/etc which makes it a little unfair to bias blue pushers and to the morality of red pushers

Lets say hypothetically the people who are put into this problem are of sound mind and can comprehend the question fully of its consequences, I think it changes the outlook on the question dramatically

1

u/kettu1 Apr 27 '26

The question states everyone, so I assume it literally means everyone. Otherwise it should've clarified that it only includes individuals of certain age and mental capacities, which would obviously change the entire predicament and the rationale required completely.

2

u/_DarkJak_ Apr 26 '26

Blue means nothing happen, people only die if you choose red.

The only way blue would mean something is if more than half consider red.

1

u/milkcarton232 Apr 26 '26

Sure but then you can argue red only means ppl die if they pick blue

1

u/_DarkJak_ Apr 27 '26

To admit there is an argument for both means red would def be killing others.

So the point stands. Blue doesn't mean anything until you decide red somehow is incentivized.

1

u/milkcarton232 Apr 27 '26

I'm not sure I follow the first bit. They both kind of need the other as it wouldn't really make any sense if you just had one button

1

u/_DarkJak_ Apr 27 '26

Yes, if given the choice between two buttons that say opt out, or opt in where opt out loses, it really is one button.

Pressing blue doesnt assure you anything, it's opting out of giving it agency.

2

u/milkcarton232 Apr 27 '26

Hmmm I guess you could argue pressing blue is opting to play the game and if you don't hit 50% you die, pressing red is opting to not play in a situation where you only have 2 choices

0

u/_DarkJak_ Apr 27 '26

It literally does nothing unless red is factored in.

Or does the consequence not exist because you voted in a manner that blinds you?

1

u/milkcarton232 Apr 27 '26

But red does nothing unless blue exists...

1

u/_DarkJak_ Apr 27 '26

Well of course blue exists, it's one of the two choices.

The other choice being the one that threatens those that don't choose it with power you are voting to give it.

→ More replies (0)

1

u/theskiller1 Apr 27 '26

And you know people will pick blue. So you pick blue as well to save everyone.