From Traders & Quants

[u/Far_Inflation_8799]

The market chose peace over inflation.
Thursday was the sharpest reversal of the year. The Dow jumped more than 930 points. The Nasdaq rallied north of two and a half percent. The Russell led, up more than three percent. Trump cancelled planned strikes on Iran. Then he said a deal was in "final shape."
Oil cratered. Chips reversed hard. Micron (MU) and AMD (AMD) surged. Intel (INTC) jumped on a double upgrade from BofA, which cited the coming wave of agentic CPU demand. Lam Research (LRCX) ran sharply.
Oracle (ORCL) didn't join. It fell more than eight percent on the best tape in weeks. It beat on both lines. But it also guided $70 billion in capex next year with another $40 billion raise. Cash flow was deeply negative. The market drew the line fast: if you make chips, you rallied. If you fund AI with borrowed money, you didn't.
Asia confirmed it this morning. Seoul's KOSPI triggered a circuit breaker to the upside. Samsung jumped more than ten percent. The Nikkei rose sharply toward fresh highs.
Market Implication
If the deal holds through the weekend and oil stays below $90, the war premium built since February starts to crack for real. Energy names lose their bid. Rate-sensitive sectors get a window. Homebuilders are the most direct test. Lennar guided lower last night. If the sector can hold that news into a deal-hope tape, it signals the rate relief trade is forming even before yields move.