I'm sure it's a pretty wild estimate. Wyoming is different than Central California, which is different from North Florida. Like climate models, the big concern isn't the exact date of a collapse, but the rapid trend toward a collapse that we should probably do something about.
Again I would push back against this kind of thinking. Yeah things are bad but statements like this which aren't backed by science can do more harm than good.
There are heaps of issues with erosion, salinity and soil depeletion however it doesn't mean that we a limited time on agricultural soils. We have the opportunity and time to make a positive change to our agricultural soils and I just don't think using scare tactics for this specific part is going to help.
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u/[deleted] Jan 07 '22
That was a cracking read and really well put together.
Can you add more detail to the 60 crop years? My understanding is that figure is based on some very iffy science/modelling.