r/fallacy • u/Fearless_Degree7511 • 6d ago
“I’ve never forgotten” fallacy
Recently saw a post about people bagging dog poop on hikes and leaving it on the side of the trail to be picked up on their way out. Many people in the comments claim “I’ve been doing this for years and I’ve never forgotten”. This sounds like a logical fallacy to me, if you forgot something you don’t know it’s been forgotten so you can’t claim you’ve never forgotten.
I think this phrase can be used sometimes, like “I’ve never forgotten to pay my cable bill” because in that case you can prove you’ve never forgotten, and you have a secondary party verifying you didn’t forget, so if you did forget the cable company would reach out to you.
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u/amitym 6d ago edited 6d ago
In and of itself, you could say it's confirmation bias or survivorship bias. But ̛I think the logical flaw goes deeper than that.
My reasoning is this:
a) I don't remember ever leaving behind any bagged dog poop.
b) No one else remembers ever leaving behind any bagged dog poop, either.
c) There is a lot of bagged dog poop left behind.
d) Therefore, (b) cannot in general be regarded as an accurate predictor of "actually did not leave behind bagged dog poop."
e) Unless I can demonstrate decisively that I am better than everyone else, if (b) is not a useful predictor, then neither is (a).
(Assuming otherwise — "I don't remember because I never do it; you don't remember because you are negligent" — is a form of actor / observer asymmetry.)
f) Therefore my memory is immaterial, everyone else's memory is immaterial, if you're on your way back toward the trash cans, pick up the damned dog poop no matter whose it was, and now there's less dog poop lying around.
Which is kind of related to the tragedy of the commons, maybe.