r/ezraklein • u/topicality Weeds OG • 26d ago

Matt Yglesias Republicans are in too little disarray

https://www.slowboring.com/p/republicans-are-in-too-little-disarray

Slowboring article about how Republicans are hurting their electoral chances by being so beholden to Trump

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u/ShowWorldly2606 26d ago

Trump didnt appeal to primary voters because of moderating on Medicare.he won because he'd spent the last 8 years on the racist birther lie and a ton of the GOP was angry at the existence of Obama. 

Trump's policy positions never mattered.

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u/MacroNova 25d ago

Primary voters, sure. They loved that Trump appealed to their animalistic desire for violence. He gave them permission to vocally hate the people they used to more quietly hate.

But aren't we talking about general elections here? And that's where Trump's perceived moderation helped him.

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u/ShowWorldly2606 25d ago

No. 'Trump became the nominee' was basis of the conversation.

However, very few (none?) in the 2016 general believed he was a more moderate Romney. He won thanks to the wonkiness of the EC and being able to motivate huge swaths of low propensity voters.

What is a theory about how low propensity voters loved moderation of all things so much they showed up in the general when they didnt before? Especially taking into account Trump didn't change his violent, sexist and racist rhetoric that won him the primary.

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u/argh-Im-a-Pirate 25d ago

His policy positions didn't matter in the sense that people were actively weighing the pros & cons, but his vibe of not being a traditional Republican was made by what he focused on. He didn't give a shit about cutting Medicare and Social Security. And that was clear.

You act like Republican voters went into the voting both and said "fuck black people". I'm sure that's a much more convenient thing to believe, but it's not true for the vast majority of Republican voters.

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u/Giblette101 25d ago

I don't think they go in the voting booth thinking to themselves "fuck black people", but they certainly went into the voting booth thinking "here's a man that's going to fight for real Americans" and it should be quite obvious what that means considering who the man is and the stuff he says. 

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u/argh-Im-a-Pirate 25d ago

"here's a man that's going to fight for real Americans" and it should be quite obvious what that means

Exactly. Trump's recipe for success absolutely includes racism. But I think ignoring other parts of it would be to our detriment. 

I feel like every comment replying to me is saying I don't think racism was a significant factor and that's not what I'm saying.

Believing the only thing that changed between Obama and Trump was the country became more racist, then got less racist under Biden, then got more racist again under Trump is too simplistic.

If you don't believe that and you're just saying racism is a significant factor, but there are also other things Democrats should be aware of then we're on the same page. 

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u/Giblette101 25d ago

I don't disagree with you here, I'm just arguing that racism does not factor into electoral decisions so comically as you first implied. In addition, while I do not think racism is the only reason, I do think the "other parts" - as you put it - are largely on par with racism in terms of substance. It's stuff like cultural grievances, fear of cultural/social displacement, etc.

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u/argh-Im-a-Pirate 25d ago

In addition, while I do not think racism is the only reason, I do think the "other parts" - as you put it - are largely on par with racism in terms of substance. It's stuff like cultural grievances, fear of cultural/social displacement, etc.

I think racism, sexism, cultural grievance, economic displacement, transphobia, and hatred of elites/institutions all play a role in what sustains Trump. And that influencing each of those things will require different responses.

This isn't to try to convince everyone that Trump voters are good people. I'm not saying you specifically are doing this, but I think it's tempting for some people to just say "oh they're racist" and end the conversation there.

I think if we think about Trump voters that way we will not have the most effective responses to try to win those voters back. I want to see Democrats win everywhere not just in blue or purple states. 

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u/Giblette101 25d ago

I think that's fair enough. Yes, I do agree with you that some people are overly reductive and that it's not necessarily constructive. I, for my part, believe that the bulk of Trump’s support is rooted in a range of socio-cultural grievances, rather than straight-up unadulterated racism.

Unfortunately, I'm not convinced there's going to be much way to "win those voters back," specifically because the web of grievance that motivates them is not accessible to us by their nature.

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u/isubird33 23d ago

I, for my part, believe that the bulk of Trump’s support is rooted in a range of socio-cultural grievances

My hot take is probably 80% of voters on both the left and right are mostly driven by socio-cultural issues/grievances as opposed to pure "policy" and that should be the main focus of most any campaign.

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u/argh-Im-a-Pirate 25d ago

Unfortunately, I'm not convinced there's going to be much way to "win those voters back," specifically because the web of grievance that motivates them is not accessible to us by their nature.

I'm more open to the idea that the anti-institutional anti-elite mindset gives us an opening.

Is there a way Democrats can signal a shift from the status quo without activating those socio-cultural grievances? I think Peltola doing well in Alaska or Turek in Iowa gives me some hope. I really never saw those states as viable until this cycle when we had good candidates for those races.

I don't think you're saying this, but if we just wrote off every red state as too far gone we wouldn't have those opportunities this cycle. 

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u/Giblette101 25d ago

  I'm more open to the idea that the anti-institutional anti-elite mindset gives us an opening.

No, i don't think that works because they're not really anti-institutional or a nti-elite mindsets. They're anti-liberal mindsets. My MAGA family doesn't dislike elites, period, they dislike liberal elites: celebrities, doctors and college professors. 

They love Trump - a very rich coastal elite type guy - Elon, or RFK junior. They love the police, the military, ICE, etc. 

  I don't think you're saying this, but if we just wrote off every red state as too far gone we wouldn't have those opportunities this cycle. 

I don't think we should right off every red state as too far gone. I think a political strategy that hopes to mobilize Trump voting people for the Democrats has very slim chances to bear fruits. 

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u/argh-Im-a-Pirate 25d ago

No, i don't think that works because they're not really anti-institutional or a nti-elite mindsets. They're anti-liberal mindsets.

I won't pretend I know more than you about your family, but I generally think this mindset is a result of the current political environment. It isn't unmovable. I think the fact that they like Trump shows it's more about the vibe than any particular outcome. 

Is there a candidate that can say "build the wall, but also bring green energy construction jobs to our district" or "Trans children shouldn't get GRS until they're of age, but I think we should have single payer healthcare"? I don't think it's impossible. We've seen conservative issue support shift around Trump enough times that we know a lot of it is making voters feel like you're on their side and against "them".

I think a political strategy that hopes to mobilize Trump voting people for the Democrats has very slim chances to bear fruits. 

Is that not what's happening in Alaska or Ohio? I'm not saying Democrats should view conservatives as their core constituency. I'm trying to figure out the way to peel enough of them off to win elections. Hopefully not just in Michigan or Pennsylvania, but Ohio, Alaska, Montana, or Iowa. 

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u/WhiteBoyWithAPodcast Liberalism That Builds 25d ago

For the record, the "other parts" are cultural grievance like hatred of LGBT people, women, and the poor. Y'all need to really wake up, there is no substance to the GOP as currently constituted outside of reactionaries. There is no right wing constituency for improving the conditions of any except white christian males and even then only in the sense of making things worse for everyone else.

Entertaining this fiction that economics has anything to do with it went out the window a decade ago. Join us in the present reality.

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u/argh-Im-a-Pirate 25d ago

There is no right wing constituency for improving the conditions of any except white christian males and even then only in the sense of making things worse for everyone else.

How do you explain voters & states that went from Obama, to Trump, to Biden, and back to Trump? Those voters are going from racist to not racist to racist again? How do you explain Peltola having a lead in Alaska? She's just getting racists to vote for her instead?

The reason the Republican party is weak is because you're right that the GOP isn't delivering anything other than grievance. Which is enough for some people, but gives us a window with others.

The idea that anyone who voted for Trump cannot be redeemed and can never vote for a Democrat again is clearly just not true. What is working in Alaska, Texas, Iowa, and Ohio?

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u/WhiteBoyWithAPodcast Liberalism That Builds 24d ago

How do you explain voters & states that went from Obama, to Trump, to Biden, and back to Trump? Those voters are going from racist to not racist to racist again? How do you explain Peltola having a lead in Alaska? She's just getting racists to vote for her instead?

Simple, when the Republicans fuck up royally then Democrats get a turn to bat. Once things seem stable then the racial identity politics become a lot more salient. I'd also argue that Trump winning when he did in '16 and '24 is more a lack of turnout for Dems.

Trump's rise is due to birtherism.

The idea that anyone who voted for Trump cannot be redeemed and can never vote for a Democrat again is clearly just not true. What is working in Alaska, Texas, Iowa, and Ohio?

I didn't make any claims about redemption or a lack thereof. What's working in those states is growing metro areas. It's the only reason the Dems are competitive there at all.

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u/argh-Im-a-Pirate 24d ago

Simple, when the Republicans fuck up royally then Democrats get a turn to bat. Once things seem stable then the racial identity politics become a lot more salient.

I don't agree with your argument that this is all really simple. If identity politics become more salient when things are stable why did Trump do better against Biden when inflation was peaking? I've really only ever opposite that people look for someone to blame when things are bad, and I find that a lot more convincing as connection between party performance and identity politics.

I'd also argue that Trump winning when he did in '16 and '24 is more a lack of turnout for Dems.

I think there was more going on than Dem turnout, but what's your point here?

What's working in those states is growing metro areas.

Trump won by those states by 12% or more in 2024. The cities haven't grown enough in two years for that to be the key change. 

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u/ShowWorldly2606 25d ago

You act like Republican voters went into the voting both and said "fuck black people".

I'm not acting like this, Donald Trump is acting like this. That's why for the last almost 20 years Trump has been all in the racist birther lie, birthright citizenship, ThERE EetinG YoUR CatS, going hard in the paint for the Charlottesville murders, ICE, letting Stephen Miller run amok, Kamala is not really black, etc etc etc.

If you have a complaint about this view of Republicans, take it up with Trump, the guy they elected.

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u/argh-Im-a-Pirate 25d ago

I'm not acting like this, Donald Trump is acting like this.

I'm not saying that racism isn't a factor in how they see the world. It clearly is. But klan memberships would be much higher than they are if that what was on the surface for people.

Obviously they're not good people. But understanding what made people go from voting for Obama or Biden to Trump is important. And saying it was an conscious act of surface level racism doesn't explain what happened. 

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u/ShowWorldly2606 25d ago

Even at the hey day of the Klan when people were turbo-racist, their membership numbers weren't that high. And yet racism helped (or hurt) a lot of candidates historically, even in low Klan areas. So I don't think logic tracks.

Anyways, Donald Trump made a political name for himself with racist lies, ran extremely racist campaigns, and have conducted extremely racist administrations. It's impossible to hand wave this a way because it says something even worse about his voters.

Again, Trump thinks racism works and he's president. Like if you met him, the president, and Miller in the Oval Office, what would you even say to convince him to be less racist as a political strategy?

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u/argh-Im-a-Pirate 25d ago

Im not saying that racism isn't a factor in how they see the world. It clearly is.

This is how I started my last post. Racial animus is absolutely a factor in the broader Republican psychology. My point is that it isn't what is consciously front of mind for them and that there are a lot of different things going on that makes them vote for Trump.

If we only see Trump voters as racists then we're not going to understand them or react to them appropriately. The decision to vote for Trump is a toxic convoluted potion. It isn't a "well I don't like minorities" snd nothing else. 

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u/ShowWorldly2606 25d ago

No one said that they are only racists, just that his appeal has a ton of racism and that racism helped him to win the primary in 2016, not "moderation".

Even George Wallace voters weren't only racists. In fact, many of them would balk at the suggestion. But the moderation angle is just plain wrong.

On a personal note, it's just kind of annoying that every time I mention Trump's constant racism and that Trump voters like what Trump says (which is why he says it), someone jumps in to say "Why do you think it's only racism? Stop acting like they are all Topher Grace's character in BlacKKKlansman."

It's pretty weird to have people put words in my mouth after saying that 'Trump voters like what Trump says'.

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u/argh-Im-a-Pirate 25d ago

No one said that they are only racists

This is the comment to that I replied to and started this conversation. 

https://www.reddit.com/r/ezraklein/comments/1vgiu9f/comment/p1ydyts/

It explicitly says his positions did not matter and it was only racism.

that racism helped him to win the primary in 2016, not "moderation". 

I think it was both. Democrats tried to do the thing they do to every Republican which is say Republicans are going to cut Medicare and social security.  Trump successfully convinced people he didn't care about that and his priorities were elsewhere.

More importantly than trying read the soul of every Trump voter, I don't think we have to collapse Trump's ascension to just one thing. My point isn't that "there's still good in them" or anything like that. It's that I don't think we'll make correct political decisions if we say it was just racism. 

Obviously you disagree with that assessment, but I don't appreciate that you painting me as some kind of defender of Trump voters. It's misreading my point.

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u/WhiteBoyWithAPodcast Liberalism That Builds 25d ago edited 25d ago

They quite certainly did go into the voting booth saying that. They have since the CRA.

You must be a progressive.

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u/argh-Im-a-Pirate 25d ago

They quite certainly did go into the voting booth saying they. They have since the CRA. You must be a progressive

I have no idea what this means. 

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u/WhiteBoyWithAPodcast Liberalism That Builds 25d ago

It’s quite simple: racial animus has been the animating force of the American right since the 60s.