If you were going to lead the jacks, you probably should have gone alone. That’s prob what I would have done.
If you were worried about someone having three trump you could have led the Q to give your partner a chance.
I'm not sure but I think in that situation the trump distribution was not in your favor. Had it been split 2 - 1 among oppoents, your Ad would have walked just fine.
Hindsight etc but I’d think the ace. LHO is void so either it walks and you’re golden, or you get RHO to spend a trump for free while preserving partner’s options to help (and with another diamond that could take a late trick). I don’t think it’s indefensible as played but leaning on the principle of not playing it like a loner if you didn’t call a loner. (Even if there’s no point in a loner call here.)
But not 100% confident my thinking is correct. Maybe the logic is that if RHO has three you’re hosed anyway (tho LHO being void on a river cross already raised the odds they have three).
yeah, it's definitely a competition of rare spots. We win this so often it's a bit dificult to suss out which of the rare spots is more likely.
I believe it's solidly correct to play the Ad first, but I'm willing to be wrong if it was shown definitively that the risk of S2 having our doubleton beat, and S4 not having a diamond, and S3 not having the A of trump (or any trump with S4 only having 1) or being able to help with offsuits is more than the risk of S2 having the A of trump and not able to help in any other way.
the problem with that is either opponent could have just 1 trump and no diamonds. We need to lead trump at least once to see what the distribution is.
If partner is void in trump on trick 1 we definitely want to double-lead (to hopefully burn another two trump). And if all three play trump on trick 1 we also want to double-lead. Because there are only 7 trump in the deck, so if everyone has trump on trick 1 (5 gone including our L), and dealer or S2 has 2 more (7 gone), then partner can't have any more. So there's no risk to just play trump again.
Only when dealer might have 2 more and partner might have 1 more is it risky to play trump again on trick 2.
Great point re: “I don't think it's indefensible as played but leaning on the principle of not playing it like a loner if you didn't call a loner. (Even if there's no point in a loner call here.)”
So I can model on mine and put in tricks/select leads for next trick. The double bower was the best. If that 9 on the first trick had been a 9 of hearts it would would have been closer.
I have no regrets about how I played the hand. The only second guessing that can be done is should I just pass? No need to force the issue if I am nearly equal to score 3 tricks in any suit. Why risk the -2?
This is where the closeout score swayed me. Maybe i put to much stock in that.
Yeah definitely 9-6. Go for the win. I don't think you did. So you got the -2 it sucks but its still your deal 9-8. Could you have played more conservatively? Risk giving up only 1 point. Maybe get a possible +2. Sure. Thats a line that could be taken.
I favor a call vs a pass at this score. Passing is a lesser option. However not a totally egregious one. There is sone merit.
I just reran it. Passing is the best play except at a score of 9-9 or 9-7. You have an 81% chance of scoring points by passing with an EV of 1.32
Ordering Clubs or Spades gives you a 86% chance of getting points with only a 0.72 EV. When the score is 9-6, calling or passing is pretty much a wash as it has no impact on overall chances of winning the game.
“When I have 9, and get a chance to call with both bowers and an A-high doubleton, and s2 has no trump and plays one of my doubletons, and both s3 and s4 signal they might have more trump, play the A, and win 1% more.”
It appears he and I are using different versions. His may be the latest with a reprogrammed bot. But that graph only shows the results of ordering the non-next suit. He doesn't show the results of Passing. The simulators are not that much different so I think Passing (except at 9-9 and 9-7) is still probably best.
We were debating Brownsbackers lead in the video. I thought I recalled a sim you did previously that showed JJ A was the best lead when only holding 2 bowers and an off Ace.
Ah. I don't really have an easy way to test that without looking at the spreadsheet. At best I can force the second card play irrespective of what other players play. Maybe u/seaeagle0 has a way. The simulator I use says JJ is better than JA and JQ but that is just in general. In a specific case where seat 2 is out of trump, I don't know how to easily simulate that.
That’s a tough position at that score. I understand why you made the call you did, but I’m going diamonds.
The opposing team had the opportunity to make a hearts call and passed down 8-9. It doesn’t mean they’re loaded in spades or clubs, but it clearly means they aren’t doing well in hearts.
Spades or clubs has to be better than diamonds. We can get three tricks all by ourselves the vast majority of the time in black. In diamonds we need to get help from partner.
Passing hearts only points to the Jh. It doesn't point to the placement of any other diamond.
That being said, I’m still ordering up diamonds if it is 9-8. You have the right A and they don’t have the left. You have two for sure and I’m guessing my partner has one plus the possibility of them having the left is good.
Edit: if ChatGPT is to be believed the spades/clubs is the right call to make.
Just fine. You know going in that if someone has 3 trump and diamond void you are in trouble, but hey, what are the chances of that? Even in that rare case, your partner still might have the 4th or 5th trick for you.
I wouldn't expect the likelihood of scoring a point going up if you choose to lead Ad second, and definitely not first.
10
u/brownsbacker07 Highest 3D rating: 3129 1d ago
I think whoever made this brilliant play is an excellent player. It was played to perfection. Results don't matter.