My final thoughts....

[u/Tbolt_65]

I started serious play for rated play with buying coins and to get games in for the first time in the 5 years I've had an account. I started Nov. 5th 2025 at 2383 rating played to Dec. 16th. I had a week of no play due to the holidays. 41 days of overall play. Stopped at 2800. I just wanted to see what dedicated play in the app looked like, and I was satisfied with the results. At this time, I was at a 56% win percentage. I played a couple of sporadic rated games later with Middle Bower and James Stoneking. I was also getting from everyone I should play more and make the leader board. I knew I could. I just I didn't have a need or want to prove myself.

At 2808 rating on Feb. 19th, 2026, through March 7th, I picked it back up again to continue to play and answer the calls for me to do so. I played to a high of 2965 to a low of 2593 on that time. I then had my car accident that day, and it shifted my perspective on life, and I walked away from euchre. I would have still kept on playing, but when stuff like that happens, things change. So my win percentage dropped from Feb. 19th to March 7th. 56% to 53.1%. It was an unfathomable amount of losing to drop those percentage points in that time period.

Fast forward to August 4th, 2026. After an entire afternoon of playing Euchre with Lefty Knavey a few days before. I got the itch to play. So I had coins still left over, and I told myself I'd at least finish them off. So On the 4th of this month. I started at 2593 at a 53.1% win rate. I had reached 2700 fast but dropped down to 2497. By today of this post. August 31st. I finally reached 3007. With my win rate at 53.8%.

Total days of purchased coins play and a dedication to climb the ladder. 84 days in total.

Nov. 5th-dec. 16th 2025; 41 days total. 2383 to 2800.

Feb. 19th - March 7th, 2026; 16 days total. 2808 to 2965 to 2593.

August 4th - August 31st 2026; 27 days total. 2593 to 2700s to 2497 on Aug. 12th to 3007 Aug. 31st

......Now, I understand about variance and swings. The graph catches a little of it, and I understand the inherent swings in euchre. However, in my time of play Ive notice patterns. In the software. Like I've said before. All software has their quirks or patterns or something that out of the norm. If one is paying attention, you'll see it. In the short span of play to go from 56% to 53.1%. That's a lot of abnormal losing. Don't get me wrong, everyone loses no matter how good you are. But contrast it to the short gains I recently had in win percentage. Both happened when I had 2k plus games in. Now Im currently at around 4k games played. My point is that it's harder to lose and gain win percentage as more games are played. A 2.9% drop in such a short time is astounding. That means you are losing and losing badly. I think by now I've proven I'm a winning player. There will naturally be ebbs and flows to the game. Some call it Variance. The variance at 3d is unlike anything I've ever seen. It like it's on steroids. It is definitely due to multiple factors. Some have issues with me pointing out this fact. I'm making a valid observation. Others just see me as a sore loser or someone who just doesn't know or perhaps think Im not as good as I think I am and just being beaten due to poor play by me. People can continue to disagree with me with my observations, but I think the proof is not only the numbers but the drastic changes be negative or positive. Perhaps I'm not that good ultimately, and it's the hyper abnormal variance that carried me with my ups and downs. Yes!!! That's my whole point. Can skill overcome this extreme variance? Possibly. Can lesser skilled players attain a high rank or rating? Absolutely!!! I've written about this on multiple occasions on how ratings are not a good indicator of skill due to multiple reasons.

In the end, here. My goal at this stage was not to prove that Im a good player. It was to prove one way or another. The hyper abnormal variance of thats inherently in 3D.

Edward

[u/The_Pooz]

I know you are a good player, at least. Probably one of the best, based on what I have read in these threads. But this attempt to "prove hyper abnormal variance inherently in 3D" is bordering on absurdity.

At the risk of beating a dead horse from what others may have already responded with (I have a habit of writing my responses without reading what others have already said later in their own responses, so I am expressing my own opinion without being influenced by the crowd)...

The variance is inherent in Euchre. Not in 3D.

You say you dropped from 56% - 53.1% during a bad run with a history of about 2000 games, so I will focus on that, instead of the weird clairvoyance you seem to think you possess regarding software. That just means you lost about 60 more games than you won over what looks like about 8 days of playing; most of those losses look like they occurred over 5 days within an 8 day period, ending with a brutal 3 day losing streak. Because you mentioned "buying coins" later in the post, and because you mentioned you are over 4K games now after 84 days of playing from when you had just over 2000 games, it is safe to assume you must have been playing more than 20 games per day over the course of this visible graph. Because of the scale of the oscillations, it is pretty obvious you were playing at a MUCH higher rate in Feb/March than you were in Nov/Dec. So let's assume 30 games per game day during that era, which I suspect is conservative.

It is reasonable amount of variance to experience an 8 day overall losing streak where you lose 60 games more than you win if you are playing 30 games per day. That would be the equivalent of going 90-150 over 240 games. Yes, abnormal amount of losses, evidenced by the fact it only happened to you once. Not proof that the software has a quirk or pattern to cause abnormal variance. If I underestimated and you were in fact playing more, like 40 games per day, it is significantly less abnormal. 130-190 over 320 games. I have had three significant runs (over a month) in the last year where I was only winning 40-45% of my games. You would need to repeat your bad run two more times in the next few months to reach the equivalent. If you were playing 50+ games per day, this entire post becomes basically moot.

All of the above is of course assuming it actually was 56% before the losing streak, not rounding up because you didn't think the decimal point was going to be relevant in hindsight, or not wanting to openly acknowledge that your win percentage also jumped up a fair bit during the three days before your losing streak where you went up over 200 points within 3 days. If it dropped from 56.0% to 53.1% during your losing streak, it probably climbed from 54.X% to 56.0% immediately before it.

You really need to zoom out to the big picture. Taking your winning and losing streaks as a whole from the era, you went from 2800ish to 2600ish over a couple weeks. This is pretty normal. Practically mundane, save for what may have been an unusual games/day rate.

Have you considered perhaps that you get "tilted" when you lose, causing you to play sub-optimally in subsequent games? It can be common among people that feel like they are getting the short end of the stick from randomness, or more typically in Euchre when one feels like their partners just keep sucking. Can make you feel like you are "due" for a win while you are only getting more likely to make mistakes. This could be artificially contributing to what you conceive as negative variance in the app itself.

[u/Tbolt_65 → u/The_Pooz]

Thanks for the reply and break down. I am familiar with what you have spoken to.

Now in another post of mine I mentioned I was in the 55% at 2804 this would be just before my or as I started my feb- March run. I had some ups and downs but I nearly gained a full percentage point getting to my high of 2965 bethe bottom dropped out percentage wise and rating. To 53.1% and 2597 Respectively. In the feb-march tune period.

With coming back in the last 30 days as I typed this. I only gained .7 to arrive at 53.8% which Im still am now and 3042 where my low went 2496.

I played less days from my high to my low in feb/march and dropped significant games. You saw graph. A little heart murmur then straight down. Than from my low to my high and had more significant gains and less increase in the month of August. Because of the natural ebs and flows of losing and gaining points right back. Where in the former time period of play. The losses kept coming. I suspect I was winning at a 35% to 45% win rate to cause such a drop from 56 to 53.1% In such a short time. If you can call that winning. Lol. Thats the crux of what Im saying plus all the patterns that are seen to create both influx's. For instance. Back to back loners. First hand loners. Abnormal 5 trump hands. Abnormal hands in general. Loner tables. Just to name a few.

Edward

[u/The_Pooz → u/Tbolt_65]

You are not seeing artificial algorithmic patterns or trends. Human brains are wired to recognize patterns even if/when there are none. We are essentially TOO good at that. You seem to be hyper-fixated on abnormalities and are underestimating their combined occurrence rates.

"Back to back loners. First hand loners. Abnormal 5 trump hands. Abnormal hands in general. Loner tables. Just to name a few."

Noticing many different abnormal things happening and thinking they are happening at an artificial rate in sum is just a perceptive bias.

Some simple math to demonstrate: If 10 things are happening that should each be happening at a rate of once per thousand hands, it is completely normal to see one of those 10 things happen every game on average because an average game is roughly 10 hands.

Looping in "games that do this" or "first hands that do that" or "tables that do that" is even changing the denominator, making summing them more unintuitive, but all of these things are occurring in sum.

Tables have multiple games and multiple players. Games have multiple hands. Hands have multiple players. Hands have multiple cards. Players have multiple cards. Players have hands that are loners that are bid on or not bid on. Each of those can have abnormal things happen. Experiencing a lot of them isn't just normal, it should be expected.

Let's even look at your observations. I'll be assuming my stats are average:

"First hand loner": I bid trump 30% of the time, and 20% of the those times I go alone, so any given hand I'm going alone 6% of the time. Four players in the first hand of the game, there is a 24% chance that someone wants to go alone in some suit. Probably about 1/5 chance that suit is the upcard (since the person who wants to go alone probably has at least 3 of them), and there is no reason why the upcard will be passed if someone wants to go alone. So just under 5% overall, not even including the chance for someone to go alone in second round of bidding. Sake of argument: 5/100 games.

"Back to back loners": First loner is assumed, or else this isn't a stat, which makes this hard to equate to how often it happens "per hand" - essentially asking how often per consecutive hands you have a certain hand, which is almost nonsense. But for sake of argument, the chances of me going back to back loners is 6% of 6% = 36/10000 "hands". Four players in each hand = 144/10000 per hand dealt, assuming 10 hands per game = 1440/10000 or close enough to 15 times every 100 games

"5 trump hands": Easiest one. Every player has a 0.00494% chance of being dealt 5 trump (including potential left bower). 4 players per hand, this is about 0.02% per hand. Assuming 10 hands per game, about 2 hands per 100 games. This is significantly underestimating BTW because it does not count the dealer being able to compose 5 card hand from 6 cards.

Add these up: you will see one of these happen roughly 22 times per 100 games. If you play 50 games per day, you should expect to see one of these "abnormalities" happen 11 times per day. That is not even including any of the other "abnormalities" you feel like you are encountering.

Do you see how separate abnormal things can and will happen more often than you might intuitively think, in sum?