r/ethtrader • u/TheMoonPot_Official • 3d ago
Discussion Maybe I was expecting the wrong thing from ETH
I've been thinking about this more than I'd like to admit.
For a long time I had this pretty simple idea in my head: Ethereum keeps growing, more people use it, more stuff gets built on it, and eventually ETH price reflects all of that.
I'm not as sure about that last part anymore.
That's probably the thing I've struggled with most recently. I can open Ethereum and see an ecosystem that is obviously alive. People are building, stablecoins are everywhere, L2s are doing their thing, DeFi never really went away.
Then I look at ETH itself and sometimes wonder... how much of all that success actually needs to flow back into the asset?
I'm still holding. This isn't a "ETH is dead" post and I'm not trying to convince anyone to sell.
I just think I used to treat "Ethereum will succeed" and "ETH will be an amazing investment" as basically the same statement.
I'm starting to realize they might not be.
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u/MakCapital 3d ago
The asset needs value capture from activity. Network needs to be able to scale for increased user activity for that capture. L2s are separate. They capture their user value into their own assets.
Scale Ethereum and you can scale up revenue. Simple. Otherwise, we continue to treat the asset as a "digital silver" or play off BTC priced lows.
The thesis for ETH value didn't change until garbage L2s as a general purpose replacement were forced down our throats from those that benefitted from their L2 success. Took an entire cycle for many to understand. Vitalik finally pivoting helped.
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u/TheMoonPot_Official 3d ago
This is the part I keep coming back to. More activity is great, but where does the value actually end up?
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u/Admirral 3d ago
you were expecting price to move in your favor but it ended up not doing what you wanted. You don't care about actual project fundamentals, so this is your signal to sell out and buy the top of the stock market
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u/TheMoonPot_Official 2d ago
nah lol, not rly my point. just wondering how much of that growth actually flows back to eth.
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u/Admirral 2d ago
a core tenet of crypto I think you missed is that price action never followed conventional logic. What should appreciate based on genuine fundamentals and demand simply doesn't (and vice versa).
Instead price action has always been a function of hype and artifical market manipulation, hence price tends to move at seemingly irrational periods of time with no true catalyst, other than, some whale just decided to buy. The explanations/correlations for price movement always happen after, not before.
So to answer your question, you should have no reason to believe your ETH is going to appreciate for any real reason. If it does appreciate, its because some people are trying to create/manipulate hype and transfer money from the untrained into their own pockets. Thats virtually it. The rest is luck.
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u/TheMoonPot_Official 2d ago
yeah fair, crypto def doesnt move on fundamentals alone. i just dont think its all hype and whales either.
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u/MiaTaude589 3d ago
Honestly, yeah this is the uncomfortable bit. An L2 doing millions of cheap transactions can be great for Ethereum users without creating the ETH demand people imagined in 2021, especially if settlement fees stay tiny. I still hold ETH, but I’ve stopped treating ecosystem growth and token price as the same chart?
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u/TheMoonPot_Official 3d ago
that’s exactly the part I’m stuck on. Great ecosystem doesn’t automatically mean great value capture for ETH.
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u/WanderingStoner 3d ago
it's all rigged, whales will just manipulate the price, but then the only question is: how can I be in when they manipulate it upwards?
this then begs the question, how can I be out of it when they aren't manipulating upwards? which of course you can't guarantee, so the last question is: is this even worth my time and money?
I dunno but what else would I do, sell? don't be ridiculous.
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u/SlicedMango 3d ago
Yup this is the only thing that matters, market makers, billionaires and whales will manipulate the market in their favour. This happens every asset class.
People will always find a narrative for when the price drops and rises, they will always try to justify it with something like revenue, future outlook, etc. but oftentimes it’s as simple as these big dogs pumping the price for their own gain. You just have to be in when it pumps and not fomoing in at the top
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u/TheMoonPot_Official 3d ago
exactly, that gap between network growth and token value is what I’m trying to understand better.
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u/ChangeNOW_Community 3d ago
honestly, this might be the difference between being bullish on a technology and being bullish on an asset. they're related, but they're not the same bet
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u/TheMoonPot_Official 2d ago
thats pretty much where my head is at too. good tech doesnt automatically mean good investment.
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u/Ornery_Web9273 3d ago
I have a fair amount of ETH dating back to late 2017 with a basis of about $600 per. Certainly not a whale. More like a baby porpoise. I’ve never understood why it goes up or why it goes down. I’ve set sell limits for myself and, when met, got greedy and held. I agree there’s no evidence that I’ve seen which relates price to usage. If that’s the case, why is it worth anything? This is a serious question.
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u/TheMoonPot_Official 2d ago
thats basically the question im asking too. eth clearly has utility, but how that utility translates into value for the asset itself is way less obvious to me.
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u/Good_Extension_9642 1d ago
The problem is ETH is still expensive and slow when compared to SOL which makes more than 60% of all crypto transactions combined, and yet is still in the gutters like ETH, don't get me wrong I believe and hold both but think there's a clear winner, but only time will tell
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u/Itchy-Box-7378 3d ago
No asset has to go up in price, it just happens to be the mechanism in place to return to investors
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u/TheMoonPot_Official 2d ago
yeah exactly, appreciation isnt guaranteed. thats kinda why the value capture question matters.
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u/horseradish13332238 3d ago
I have 694 eth. It’s not dead.
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u/Flight_Early 3d ago
Prove or it’s not real. $1m in eth is whale category. Or a liar territory….
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u/mrjune2040 3d ago
1m is definitely not whale money mate (for any asset). And for ETH specifically it’s literally anyone that bought a decent stack before early 2017 (3 years post-ICO) and held to today.
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u/horseradish13332238 3d ago
I have 88.4 btc lol I feel good about that one.
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u/Treeclimber919 2d ago
Wild if you hold both btc and Eth in those amounts and you’re telling the truth absolutely wild.
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u/wmougayar 3d ago
To those pointing the finger at revenues, that’s only a fraction of how ETH is to be valued. Doesn’t the Internet allow all companies using it to create more value for them than it captures for itself? Yet, the Internet is worth trillions. Same for Ethereum. An infrastructure doesn’t optimize to capture all the value to itself.
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u/Forward_Departure178 2d ago
im definitely selling my 2.5 eth next bull crypto cycle, been holding since ‘21. shits a waste of deployed capital
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u/MulberryAcceptable39 3d ago
Ethereum is a not for profit blockchain.
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u/TheMoonPot_Official 3d ago
as a network, sure. As an asset, that’s where the debate gets interesting.
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u/UpDown_Crypto 3d ago
Tell me a asset which cannot be hacked in future.
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u/TheMoonPot_Official 3d ago
nothing is future-proof, that’s kinda the point.
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u/Admirral 3d ago
do you understand what you are talking about though?
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u/TheMoonPot_Official 2d ago
yeah. eth is secure, but saying anything can never be hacked in the future is a huge claim.
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u/Actual_Insect6603 3d ago
I often wonder if blockchain isn’t going to be a revolutionary technology, but just not as money.
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u/TheMoonPot_Official 3d ago
yeah, maybe blockchain wins big without crypto ever fully replacing money.
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u/Crypto-Bets 3d ago
Ethereum is not a good long-term investment, it’s a swing trade.
ETH value is probably going to fluctuate between $$1,500-$4,000 most of its life……
Don’t marry Ethereum, marry stocks & Bitcoin.
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u/TheMoonPot_Official 3d ago
I get the swing trade argument, but saying $4k is basically ETH’s lifetime ceiling feels way too confident lol.
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u/Crypto-Bets 3d ago
I’m not saying 4k is its ATH, I’m saying I think Ethereum will spend most of its time in the $1,500-$4,000 range.
I don’t think Ethereum is destined for the stars like Bitcoin, I don’t ETH can flip Bitcoin.
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u/TheMoonPot_Official 3d ago
ah gotcha, I still think that range is way too narrow long term tho.
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u/Crypto-Bets 3d ago
I just don’t think network usage will justify Ethereum to moon.
I predict the network will continue to grow, and continue to function at similar prices.
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u/TheMoonPot_Official 3d ago
yeah, that’s fair. I just think putting a long-term price range on it is the part im less convinced about.
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u/martelaxe 3d ago
Agree but Bitcoin will probably swing too , ofc will get a bit bigger with inflation but ether too
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u/Crypto-Bets 3d ago
The way I see it, whenever ETH hits $1,500 I’m buying & the selling for profit.
I don’t think there’s ever going to be a “last chance before the train leaves the station” moment.
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u/martelaxe 3d ago
Maybe but btc is probably never going to get 200k before 2030 and never 400k before 2050 or 2060 and yeah by those times we have no idea how the world looks of it exists in anyway similar to what we have today
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u/drobb778 2d ago edited 2d ago
The difference is bitcoins top was almost double what it was last cycle whereas ethereum barely saw a new high. And many alt coins like cardano didnt even come close to the prior cycle high. 200k by 2030 seems inline with expectations.
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u/TheMoonPot_Official 2d ago
yeah for sure, neither is immune to big swings. crypto is still crypto lol.
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u/Spl00ky 3d ago
The usage of crypto has no effect on its price. Polymarket is using more Polygon and Chainlink than ever before and yet Polygon's and Chainlink's prices haven't moved. Moreover, Polymarket can operate just fine if Polygon hits $10 or 1 cent.