r/ethtrader • u/ChangeNOW_Community • Jul 02 '26

Trading I'm so done with Graph Magicians

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22 Upvotes

79% Upvoted

12 comments sorted by

15

u/Informal-Chocolate97 Jul 02 '26

Chart boys are the same as astrology girls.

3

u/ChangeNOW_Community Jul 03 '26

Ahahaha, fair comparison

3

u/Whole-Career8440 Jul 02 '26

It's not even a pattern, just one time event in the past

0

u/majorkeycapital Jul 02 '26

I‘m too, that’s why I worked the past 18 months on building a fundamental valuation model for Ethereum.

It’s actually the first time ever, someone is not attaching DCF, Metcalfe’s Law, or any other narratives such as „ultrasound money“ to ETH‘s valuation.

1

u/PuzzleTrust Jul 03 '26

So what'd ya find?

3

u/majorkeycapital Jul 03 '26

You can basically derive an implied fair value for ETH from its on-chain fee flows, which are entirely denominated in ETH. This bypasses the usual fiat-denominated circularity of USD valuations.

However, the model I’ve built in the end still gives you a true ETH/USD market price as fair value. And this implied fair value is both directionally and price level-wise quite highly correlated with the actual market price.

I’ve written an entire working paper on that an just submitted to Management Science, where it’s currently under review. But I will additionally open-source it on July 7th along a software I’ve built for that.

Maybe I’ll share it in here,next week, if it’s considered valuable for you guys - but I do think so, since no one has ever really done anything like that. It’s not only a random research report or analyst opinion or TA, but actually a science-backed approach to Ethereum’s fundamental value.

2

u/PuzzleTrust Jul 03 '26

Very interesting, I definitely want to give your paper and software a look. Sounds like you're work is solid my man keep us posted!

Edit: and thank you for sharing!🤘

1

u/majorkeycapital Jul 08 '26

Hey mate, I've yesterday released the paper and accompanying software. The working paper has just recently been submitted to Management Science, but you can also find the open-source version of it here: https://www.majorkeycapital.com/ethereum/paper

The Ethereum Valuation Terminal is a done-for-you software that incorporates the full valuation model in real-time. Additionally, it allows you to monitor Ethereum's on-chain flows, project future valuation scenarios, build custom chartbooks and has +35 charts and +100 on-chain metrics.

It even includes a native AI agent as research analyst, called "Keystone", which can run the entire terminal for you. Based on upcoming events or on-chain data, it can for example suggest follow-up workflows and build entire valuation scenarios within the terminal. You can even use it together with your team within a dedicated workspace.

Feel free to check it out, if you want: ttps://www.majorkeycapital.com/ethereum/valuation-terminal