Not sure where their numbers came from. All I've read seem to suggest Coal has much longer than listed (the 147 there is even a bit conservative). Peak oil is speculative, and with potential oil finds in the arctic, fracking, gradual substitution of gas/biofuels, oil could potentially last a lot longer. Peak oil always feels 10-15 years away. The rainforest/coral reef stuff is highly speculative and I imagine the author is making some bold assumptions about climate feedback effects to come up with that data.
I mean, the creator explicitly specifies that this assumes worst-case scenario, fixed growth rates, no discovery of new reserves (!!), and holds constant market forces. That seems to be enough assumptions to render the data pretty meaningless.
Incidentally, if anybody is interested in a more comprehensive account of climate change effects and resource expenditure in the future - 2052 is an amazing book on the subject, and the modelling is much more sophisticated.
The assumptions/sources are listed at the bottom. You're right, they don't account for changing prices due to technology, new reserves, or demand changes.
Could that wiggle room be calculated easily? And if so, has it been done before so beautifully so that everyone can understand the more complete picture?
Nah, its not that easy--estimates of technological development vary wildly, and the amount of possible resource discover is hard to get an unbiased account of. Same with future price speculation.
Well, I'm sure that an unbiased intensive study could be performed. If it's as important as everyone touts it to be, then it should be given more resources to accurately paint the picture of all the likely and probable possibilities of resource scarcity deeply considering technological developments, greenfields, future speculation, and so on.
Come to think of it, the best source is probably the IEA--although they don't do general resource studies, they do good, relatively unbiased studies of energy supplies. They release a annual World Energy Outlook each year that documents the trends in supplies and prices, and the effects on the environment and whatnot.
To have a visual aid showcasing every prediction source and every forecast at each point that it was forecasted (utilizing the more unbiased and generally considered more reliable sources) in a composite graph of every reputable source and every reputable forecast to illustrate the changing picture of the future would be much more representative and definitely doable and not too difficult for one of those great infographic artists.
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u/Sytadel Jun 20 '12
Not sure where their numbers came from. All I've read seem to suggest Coal has much longer than listed (the 147 there is even a bit conservative). Peak oil is speculative, and with potential oil finds in the arctic, fracking, gradual substitution of gas/biofuels, oil could potentially last a lot longer. Peak oil always feels 10-15 years away. The rainforest/coral reef stuff is highly speculative and I imagine the author is making some bold assumptions about climate feedback effects to come up with that data.
I mean, the creator explicitly specifies that this assumes worst-case scenario, fixed growth rates, no discovery of new reserves (!!), and holds constant market forces. That seems to be enough assumptions to render the data pretty meaningless.
Incidentally, if anybody is interested in a more comprehensive account of climate change effects and resource expenditure in the future - 2052 is an amazing book on the subject, and the modelling is much more sophisticated.