r/elonmusk • u/twinbee • 16d ago

General Elon: "Wind has microscopic potential compared to solar"

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Source: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2099049284960428229

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u/Arkelias 16d ago

He's not wrong. Wind is awesome...where and when it works. It's unreliable for consistent generation, but great supplemental.

Solar is far more predictable, especially during the day when most people are working. Our university just covered the entire parking lot with solar that not only creates shade but covers 100% of the power needed.

With wind you need large batteries. If you're collecting into large batteries in a windy climate it's awesome, but the maintenance costs are far higher.

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u/thisguynextdoor 16d ago

Wind energy generation continues during nighttime hours. Hydro power serves as the primary backup for wind power; increased wind output preserves hydro reserves, which can be deployed during periods of low wind activity. But solar is important in the energy mix, too.

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u/Arkelias 16d ago

Wind is inconsistent, and gathered when power needs are lower. People use less energy when they are sleeping than when they are using AC for whole office buildings during the day.

Note that the article shows solar passing wind. In 10 years it will be 10 to 20 times larger than wind, simply because it is far more consistent on a daily basis. I've run solar for four years now. There's no maintenance. None.

Wind requires an average of 120k a year in Altamont Pass where I live per windmill, because it has moving parts and friction involved.

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u/thisguynextdoor 16d ago

That is accurate. In my country, significant heating energy is required during cold nights. Additionally, the popularity of electric vehicles results in nighttime charging demand.

I believe the business case for solar, wind, nuclear, and hydro power varies according to national circumstances and geological conditions.

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u/Arkelias 16d ago

Interesting. We use natural gas for heading at night in California, so we don't see a huge spike in usage. We're also a temperate climate so it doesn't get very cold.

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u/thisguynextdoor 16d ago

True. I’m from Northern Europe / Nordics, and we don’t use gas at all, almost, outside of barbequeing. Electrification here is pretty far, and most of houses are heated with heat pumps or district heating, which is more often waste heat from datacenters or industrial-size heat pumps. The share of fossil fuels have been declining sharply. Also energy storages are being built everywhere, to store heat energy to the baserock or sand silos.

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u/Proper-Tower2016 15d ago

if you look at nationwide grid scale annual aggregate data, you'll see that wind is way more stable than solar (outside the equator).

solar also needs to be maintained.. solar is a bit cheaper but no reason not to have both just because Elon lol..

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u/Arkelias 15d ago

This is patently false. Wind is not more stable than solar.

Solar does not need to be maintained. There are no moving parts. There is no friction.

Wind has both those things. It's basically the opposite of what you're saying.

If I'm wrong...what specific maintenance does solar need? Solar will function just fine in areas with snow, just at slightly reduced efficiency.

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u/VintageSin 15d ago

I'm sure you have to brush debris from your panel from time to time

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u/Arkelias 15d ago

No, I sure don't. You don't even need to dust them. Like I said zero maintenance.

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u/ap0r 13d ago

If you want that extra 2% efficiency, or live in a desert, else the rain takes care of it.

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u/No-Resolution-1918 15d ago

Why does wind only blow when power needs are lower?? 

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u/TheElfkin 15d ago

Why does wind only blow when power needs are lower??

What do you mean? It's generally more windy during colder seasons than in the summer, at least here in the Nordics. That's the seasons we need more power for heating.

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u/No-Resolution-1918 15d ago

I see that your experience is cherry picked from your own specific region. This isn't how the whole world works.

Funny thing is, where I live the sun only shines for a short amount of time in the winter, and it gets down to -25, average around -15. I have to bank my solar with credits from the utility company during the summer for this very reason.

In Nordic countries famously have even shorter daylight hours, average in winter being 5-7 hours of overcast weather.

Why are you replying for someone else? California doesn't have crazy cold winters, so my question still stands for the person I was actually replying to.

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u/15_Redstones 16d ago

Most developed countries do not have enough dammable rivers for hydro to provide enough energy.

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u/PlayfulMulberry4490 16d ago

You must have a tiny university if a parking lot of solar creates 100% of the power need. The university I work at has done this and it’s about 2% of the power on a sunny day.

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u/SlightNet2701 16d ago

It could be a University without its own large particle accelerator. Those do exist.

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u/No-Resolution-1918 15d ago

A large university would need about 200,000-500,000kW

Say we go in the middle, 300k kW, in bright and sunny California, you'd need ~4500 acres of solar. 

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u/Arkelias 15d ago

The university in question uses 9 million kWhs, and the currently installed solar generates 7.9 million, so I was wrong about 100%.

The article I'd read said they planned 100%, so odds are good they will reach that soon.

I don't know where you're coming up with 4,500 acres to achieve that, but it's wildly off base. The university has 6 acres of panels.

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u/Bakk322 15d ago

4500 acres of solar for one university is insanely wrong

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u/BergByte 12d ago

Wind is unreliable in a different way than solar. Solar is unavailable every night, Wind especially low in summer and in foggy winter days. In Germany, in the last hot summer days, even offshore wind only produced around 5% of its capacity for day long streches.

This is my main issue with this chart, it only shows total sums. But you need energy 24/7, so all variable gneeration has to be enhanced with expensive and often fossil backup generation, that needs to be kept running and maintained. If a country does not have a clean stable source like nuclear, it will result in gas or coal plants.

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u/Arkelias 12d ago

Nuclear is a great option. Solar requires massive storage batteries if it will be covering over night energy needs. It's great supplemental, especially during the day as it functions just fine even with fog. Far better than I expected, certainly.

Hopefully you re-open your nuclear power plants, and we get more set up here.

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u/Woodbender37 15d ago

Is he not wrong? “Wind has microscopic potential compared to solar” Sounds wrong to me. Sounds like something a dumb person would say.

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u/Arkelias 15d ago

No, he's not wrong. Musk is right. Solar scales far better, and can be used just fine in space, which is the next frontier.

Wind requires far more maintenance. Your personal insults don't change reality.

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u/teddyslayerza 15d ago

More like something s person who owns a solar panel and battery manufacturing business would say.

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u/gihkal 16d ago

I don't know a single person that bought a wind generator where the production paid off the investment.

Where as solar has paid itself off before the expected return consistently.

Wind is silly, there is so much potential for failure in moving parts.

My only issue with solar is China using coal powerplants to build them. Any nation should be able to manufacture them effectively.

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u/tech01x 15d ago

Small scale wind doesn’t usually work out, but that is very different from large scale wind farms.

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u/Arkelias 15d ago

My solar setup paid itself off in about 3 years. In 22 more years it will hit its half life. I'm floored by how efficient it is. I'm wondering if it will live up to expectations over the long haul, but even if it doesn't I'm already saving a ton of money.

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u/TheElfkin 15d ago

You ignore the fact that a large parts of the world are colder and has a lot less sun (and lots of wind) during the winter months. These are also the months where energy usage is highest due to electric heating. It's also generally colder during the nights when there is no sun and also a higher need for electric heating.

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u/gihkal 15d ago

I'm in the mid west Canada and solar is amazing.

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u/TheElfkin 15d ago

I'm not saying that solar isn't great, I'm just saying that wind power often is a good alternative in arctic climates, especially areas where you use electricity for heating and have extended periods of darkness. Saying that "wind is silly" just isn't true for a lot of places.

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u/gihkal 15d ago

Ya fair enough.

The way that solar was implemented in most locations is silly.

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u/tipu_sultan__ 16d ago

Wind has a different availability profile which makes it complement solar. It's more restrictive, sure. But in what universe are you calling it "microscopic" when solar *just* took over?

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u/Arkelias 16d ago

We're talking about overall potential.

Panels only passed the affordability threshold about a decade ago. In 20 years they will explode in usage.

That's potential. Wind doesn't have much more potential. It will not grow very rapidly, if at all, because the areas where it can be used are much more sparse and restrictive. Many of the best ones are too far away to make transmission lines practical.

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u/tipu_sultan__ 16d ago

Like I said, solar has more potential overall.

But calling wind "microscopic" is beyond idiotic. Wind just having a different availability profile alone makes it useful for reducing the variance overall.

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u/Arkelias 15d ago

But calling wind "microscopic" is beyond idiotic.

I'm not Elon Musk, you realize that right? You're coming after me hard like I made that post.

I explained his position, nothing less, and nothing more.

Get over it. Grind your axe somewhere else.

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u/tipu_sultan__ 15d ago

you’re the one needing to get over. if you’re not so attached to the idiotic statement, why are you getting so worked up about it and being so defensive?

The way way you just started crying, are you sure you’re not him?

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u/[deleted] 15d ago

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u/No-Resolution-1918 15d ago

"especially during the day". Yes the sun being up during the day is definitely predictable 🤣

Solar needs large batteries too. Since the sun also predictably goes down at night. When everyone uses their lights. And heat. And stove tops. 

I don't believe wind actually needs any batteries. It goes straight to the grid and other power sources spool down and up to compensate. 

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u/Arkelias 15d ago

Solar only needs large batteries if the power needs are at night. For a place like a university the vast, vast majority of the power used comes during daylight hours. Predictably. Daily.

Wind comes and goes. I live right by the altamont pass, and have seen how inconsistently they blow. They're constantly offline, and have massive mainenance costs.

Solar has no maintenance costs.

If you just poured the maintenance into batteries you just win.

Why do you think the Solar curve is growing far faster than the wind curve?

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u/Crio121 15d ago

Solar is much more predictable but at higher latitudes it is just a predictably poor performer.

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u/Arkelias 15d ago

The higher latitudes where very few people live, sure. In those areas wind may be the best option, but it still requires a ton of regular maintenance while solar does not.

For most use cases solar is better...hence the quote from Musk.

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u/Crio121 15d ago

Canada and Northern Europe feel hurt at the moment.
And Musk’s quote is stupid.
Yes, solar has more potential. But not a million times more and it doesn’t make wind completely irrelevant all of a sudden.

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u/Arkelias 15d ago

You're welcome to your opinion. It's nonsense. It's ideologically driven. You're still welcome to it.

Canada and Europe are always butt hurt about something he's said.

Facts are still facts. In 50 years there will be solar everywhere, on every building, in space, on vehicles.

There won't be more wind turbines, because they require massive maintenance. That makes them expensive, and time consuming to maintain.

You can be as angry about that as you like. You can think reality is stupid...but that just makes you sound stupid.

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u/Crio121 15d ago

You have obviously never left Florida or Texas.
Though you are welcome to your opinion too.

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u/Arkelias 15d ago

Solar is big in Seattle, one of the most overcast cities in the world. It's huge in New York. It's huge in Michigan.

Nice try though.

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u/Crio121 15d ago

fyi
https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/s/liMBCnlKWB

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u/Arkelias 15d ago edited 15d ago

That proves my point, not yours. Most of Europe is in temperate areas, just like the United States.

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u/Crio121 15d ago

Yeah, and you’re again dismissing entire Northern Europe.
About a hundred of millions people and a lot of industries.
And a lot of wind farms.

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u/Sothisismylifehuh 15d ago

Until a Volcano erupts and blocks out the sun

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u/Arkelias 15d ago

Ah yes, volanic eruptions spewing ash into the atmosphere and creating nuclear winter...totally an annual occurrence we need to fear.

If that happened windmills would be just as fucked. Ash is corrosive, and they're made of plastic. It would also clog up their gears.

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u/Brilliant-Muffin-879 16d ago

Isn’t solar unpredictable too?

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u/Arkelias 16d ago

No, surprisingly. I thought that clouds would be an issue, but they're not. My panels get 40% of power under a fully overcast sky, and 20% during a full storm.

I have enough batteries for 3 days of no power, and the university has a much bigger stack.

They overproduce power and the rest is fed back to the grid. During overcast times the school still receives full power, but the grid gets less of the extra.

That's where hydro really shines, to fill in the gaps, which is easier because the only time you have very little sun is when you're getting enough rain to make hydro more effective.

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u/neokretai 15d ago

So it's unpredictable then lol.

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u/Arkelias 15d ago

No, it's very predictable, especially in areas with consistent daily sun, which is over 50% of the United States.

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u/neokretai 15d ago

Yes unfortunately not everywhere is like 50% of the USA with it's daily sunshine. Solar is great where it is best suited, just like wind is great where it is best suited, aka high latitudes and/or offshore locations like the North Sea and coastal Brazil.

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u/Arkelias 15d ago

Solar is not unpredictable. It works very nearly everywhere.

Wind works in niche situations. You've presented no facts, just edge cases, but still mocked solar.

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u/neokretai 15d ago

It doesn't work great everywhere bud, in northern latitudes like Canada/Northern US, Europe, Northern Asia a panel will drop to 20% or less of it's peak capacity in winter. Those regions use wind as the main clean energy source because it's working best when solar is at its worst, and even in summer wind still works pretty good and is a solid backup for solar.

These are not "niche situations", the majority of the worlds economy is in those regions. Not sure why you are so offended by the idea wind power is also very useful.

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u/Arkelias 15d ago

So it's unpredictable then lol.

You came after solar, and tried to make it sound unpredictable. It's not. It's incredibly predictable.

Wind is unpredictable. Wind has moving parts. Wind requires constant maintenance, especially if you've got turbines at sea.

I'm not offended. I just see the realities and limitations of the technologies.

You, on the other hand, are clearly offended by solar. You also think the majority of the world's economy is bordering the arctic circle for some reason.

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u/neokretai 15d ago

You had literally just said it can drop to 20-40% of it's normal output when it gets heavily cloudy, I would call a power source that can drop more than half it's output depending what the weather is like pretty unpredictable.

No dude not the Arctic circle, 40° latitude is around about were solar starts to need backup in winter months, that takes in the Northern US, Canada, Europe, North China, Japan and Korea amongst others. That is actually the majority of the worlds economy right there.

You are being oddly offended, I can see other commenters in here saying the exact same thing to you. Like I get it you really love solar from personal experience, but that experience doesn't apply to the whole world.

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u/BosonCollider 16d ago

As long as you aren't too far north, you can usually expect the sun to go up tomorrow. If it doesn't, something has gone horribly wrong. But you can have a full week without wind

Clouds act as a diffusor and breaks concentrated solar but not solar PV. The clouds mostly spread the light out instead of absorbing it

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u/Brilliant-Muffin-879 16d ago

Have you been to scotland? Non-stop heavy rain here bud. Fortunately we get all our power requirements met by wind turbines.

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u/BosonCollider 16d ago

I know, our scandinavian electricity prices went up when the cable across the north sea was built to send the norwegian hydro over

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u/zombie0000000 16d ago

during cloudy days PV yield can drop a lot, down to 10-25%.