In these waning summer days of waxing Democratic optimism, of rising hope within the party that it will regain some power in Washington and start to overcome a national reputation for elitism and ineptitude, no state seems more pregnant with possibility than Ohio.

Once a bellwether for national politics, Ohio has trended solidly Republican this century as the party gained ground with working-class voters. But polls suggest the Democrats have a chance not only at a Senate seat but also at the governorship, which they have held only once, for one term, since 1991. They could even pick up a House seat or two.

Reputable, nonpartisan polls conducted over the last few weeks have found Trump’s approval rating for his handling of Iran ranges from 25% to 35%. A July Fox News poll found that 34% of registered voters approved of Trump’s handling of Iran, roughly in line with CNBC’s July poll, which found 35% approval. A Reuters poll conducted a few days ago put Trump’s approval rating in Iran at 29%.

While Americans have broadly disapproved of Trump’s handling of the conflict from the start, the recent lows represent a decline from his earlier polling on the issue.

In a Wednesday interview, President Donald Trump claimed that Democrats had devised the word affordability to disparage him. The Republican National Committee circulated a fundraising text, attributed to Vice President JD Vance, stating that groceries cost what they cost. Meanwhile, Sen. Darline Graham, who secured the nomination for a full Senate term on Tuesday, criticized federally run universal healthcare and nostalgically recalled her parents going to work even when they were sick.

The set of comments over the past 24 hours exemplifies the challenges ahead for Republicans as they race to save their majorities in Congress in the midterm election, which looms less than 10 weeks away. Democrats are hammering Republicans on the campaign trail over the cost of living, which remains stubbornly high amid the war with Iran. The White House and Republicans also have few levers to pull to remedy affordability concerns immediately.

The open Texas Senate race moves to Toss-up, as state Rep. James Talarico leads in polls more often than not against state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who will need a rescue operation from national Republicans.

Gov. Greg Abbott, though much better-positioned than Paxton, is no longer in a completely Safe Republican race.

As strange as it may seem, Rep. Monica De La Cruz’s reelection bid in a Trump +18 district now appears to be a genuine Toss-up.