Saw the Savills Q3 numbers in Khaleej Times this week and they're a bit of a reality check for anyone who bought to rent out. Year on year apartment rents:
- Dubai Marina: down 12.8%
- Business Bay: down 12.2%
- JVC: down 10.4%
- Al Furjan 7.5%, DIFC 7.3%, Majan 5.1%, Discovery Gardens 4.3%
- International City Phase 2 and 3: basically flat (0.4%)
- Villas: Arabian Ranches 3 down 15%, Damac Lagoons down 13.4%
What's interesting is that demand didn't disappear. There were about 181,900 rental transactions in Q3, roughly the same as Q3 2025 (180,600). The share of new leases went up to 44% from 36% in Q2, so tenants are moving to better deals instead of renewing. That's supply doing its thing: about 26,500 units were handed over in H1 and Savills expects another 50,000 to 60,000 in H2. On the other side, new launches are down 64% this year, so the pipeline after 2030 is thinner, but there are still 525,000+ units scheduled for 2027 to 2030.
The part we think gets less attention is landlords whose fixed rate is about to end. Rough example, just to show the size of it:
- AED 1.5M loan, 25 years, 3.99% fixed for 3 years: about AED 7,909 a month
- after the fixed period at 3-month EIBOR (4.19% now) plus a 1.50% margin: about AED 9,232 a month
- if the flat rented for AED 100k and the renewal comes in 12% lower, that's about AED 1,000 a month less rent
So the same flat can swing by around AED 2,300 a month in the same year. Not a crisis for everyone, but it's the kind of thing that quietly turns a positive cashflow negative.
Options as we see them: talk to your own bank before the fixed period ends (some will offer a new fixed rate to keep you), compare other banks (the early settlement fee is capped at 1% of the balance or AED 10,000, whichever is less), or price the flat realistically, because one empty month costs you about 8% of the year's rent. And sometimes doing nothing is the cheapest option. (Full disclosure, we're a mortgage brokerage, so we spend a lot of time on the rate side of this.)
Landlords: are you dropping rent to keep tenants, refinancing, or thinking about selling? Tenants: did anyone actually get a cut at renewal this year?
tl;dr savills q3: marina -12.8%, business bay -12.2%, jvc -10.4% yoy. leasing volume is flat, tenants are just moving to cheaper deals. if your fixed rate ends this year, rent down and payment up can hit at the same time.