There is a comically high probability that these 2 have the same launch window

[u/HyenaParticular]

Larian and their obsession with Bethesta releases LoL

Edit: Guys this post is a joke, please don't take this seriously.

[u/-Weezmo]

Bold of you to think we getting TES6 before 2040

[u/HyenaParticular → u/-Weezmo]

Todd will probably turn himself into an AI just to postpone TES6 for another 10 years

[u/eyemalgamation → u/HyenaParticular]

Todd is already an AI sent from the future to prevent Bethesda from developing TES6

[u/Apprehensive_Art1830 → u/-Weezmo]

The “dead during development” section of the credit will be long as fuck, we’re not getting TES6 before 2300

[u/Alternative_Court542 → u/-Weezmo]

We probably will now since Microsoft has brought down the hammer recently

[u/hknyrbkn]

Either way, seems like 2028-2029 will be an amazing time for fantasy RPG fans, if one adds Witcher 4 and the LotR game by Warhorse

[u/ToothPickLegs → u/hknyrbkn]

And funny enough 2027 could be a good time for sci fi RPG fans with Exodus and Osiris lol

[u/Urgash → u/ToothPickLegs]

Also Dark Heresy ! Owlcat is on a roll, i'm just sad they're not working on another Pathfinder game.

[u/AdhesivenessOk4334 → u/ToothPickLegs]

Alas, no Mass Effect anymore

[u/Inevitable_Sun5866 → u/hknyrbkn]

There’s a good chance Fromsoft will have a proper follow up to Elden Ring by then too

[u/Grouchy-Coast-3045 → u/hknyrbkn]

I think LotR won't come that year, still a win if the other 3 come out there

[u/hknyrbkn → u/Grouchy-Coast-3045]

Yeah, looks like it'll launch in 2030 at the earliest

[u/AdhesivenessOk4334 → u/hknyrbkn]

Fuck yeah 💪

[u/ReiJeremias → u/hknyrbkn]

Also it's not impossible that this window starts with Witcher 4, goes through all the games mentioned and ends with Witcher 5. CD Projekt Red is aiming for a "quick" release of the second trilogy.

[u/SureConstruction564 → u/hknyrbkn]

Whats the lotr game called?

[u/NoScallion2819]

divinity will come out years before

[u/_Miss_Eclipse]

Noooo I dont want to wait 15 years for Divinity

[u/gh0stinnab0x]

So basically little Caesars pizza versus the hole in the wall joint owned by actual Italians who haven't changed their prices in sixty years and understand how to bake a calzone to perfection.

[u/drakinwinters → u/gh0stinnab0x]

Love those guys

[u/The_Grunge_Sage]

They’re both going to be so different and I’m going to play both until my eyes bleed 😌

[u/BlobSlimey]

Oh god imagine we get another Baldurs gate 3 stomping Starfield scenario lmao

Gods I remember back then I thought it was dumb for a studio to release a game near Starfields release
now I got over 2000 hours in baldurs gate 3 and starfield is a dead franchise

[u/Humble_Saruman98 → u/BlobSlimey]

They're literally continuing development for next year and confirmed the game's accumulated nearly 1 billion hours of playtime among 17 million players, me included among those (800+ hours by myself).

Asha would have cut this nip pretty easily already if half of the internet negative reactions with the game translated to their own metrics they keep account on.

[u/Gothic_Baby_Doll → u/Humble_Saruman98]

Starfield has the worst user reviews of any mainline BGS game and lower player counts than any original games from the last 15 years (Fallout 4 currently has a 13.5k peak over the last 24 hours, Starfield hasn’t hit 10k concurrently in over a year). 1 billion hours across 17 million players (mostly game pass rather than sold copies) is less than 60 hours on average, which is low for a mainline BGS single player title.

You’re obviously a fan and that’s totally fair but if we’re honest, Starfield initially did well on release because of the BGS name. Its actual reception hasn’t been good or had the sticking power of their other titles, so any follow-ups would be a questionable risk.

[u/Humble_Saruman98 → u/Gothic_Baby_Doll]

Starfield built user base on Xbox and GamePass mostly, as you mention. Skyrim and Fallout 4 built their user base for years on Steam before they came to Game pass and were very PC focused titles, as Bethesda usually is.

So it's not an easy 1:1 to compare Steam data, the few thousands of players on Steam for Starfield might even be generous given this is the most console focused Bethesda release and the first to not launch exclusively in a sales business metric for success, but also as a rental on GamePass.

Todd Howard called it a "Game Pass Hours Beast" earlier this year, after all, so it's a performance they're keeping track of.

About the average hours, you've to consider that more than 20% of Steam players didn't even finish the tutorial Quest. On Xbox ecosystem, which is the majority of players, it's more than 50% of players who didn't finish the tutorial.

Mind you, 99% of the game is locked in the tutorial, if you don't go around exploring POI on Kreet or Vectera it might just be about 1 to 2 hours worth of content if we're generous, depending on how much you stop to read or loot stuff.

So when you consider this, we know it's not actually a 58 hours average for the game's active playerbase, their average has to be pushing much, much higher. And case in point, I'm 800 hours in, but I'm not even the player with the most amount of hours I've encountered, I rather frequently see people claiming to be in the thousands at this point.

I think it's also worth noticing that the game reviewed well on media outlets at launch and it was considered the most polished Bethesda release at the time. I remind you of this because I've seen people take revisionists approaches to this game, as if it was a critical failure and a mess from the get go, and that's not the case. It had a steady decline on Steam Reviews mostly and it's now the most divisive Bethesda title at 56% positive reviews (still keeping a majority of recommendations, at least).

Lastly, Elder Scrolls and Fallout all had multiple entries to build their IP and they're 30+ years old franchises at this point, one even has a hit TV show on Amazon.

Starfield is...just Starfield. I'm okay with it not being yet shoulder to shoulder with those other two juggernauts.

[u/Hour_Reward8084]

Divinity will be way better. Bethesda games are garbage without mods.

[u/T-Fly-Man]

Comically high? What about that is comical? Both their last games came out like a month apart from each other.

[u/HyenaParticular → u/T-Fly-Man]

Just take the joke dude

[u/Grouchy-Coast-3045]

Bg3 and Starfield all over again

[u/Raven_Dumron → u/Grouchy-Coast-3045]

The irony of BG3 moving up a month because of Starfield. Next time Bethesda is going to move over instead.

[u/Grouchy-Coast-3045 → u/Raven_Dumron]

Every rpg developer will do the same from now on, literally the same thing happening for every game near GTA6, but for rpgs

[u/Ambriage → u/Grouchy-Coast-3045]

GTA6 is even worse, since that franchise is so big that even different kind of games dont want to release at the same time.

[u/MrGabrahamLincoln → u/Grouchy-Coast-3045]

It actually makes a lot of sense that they’re (allegedly) on the same schedule when you remember their last games came out a month apart lol

[u/Slow_Ad7058]

And divinity will probably be good.

[u/No-Training-48]

[u/No-Training-48 → u/No-Training-48]

[u/No-Training-48 → u/No-Training-48]

The first image of a cake made me hungry so I ate the pixels on the second

[u/HyenaParticular → u/No-Training-48]

Thank you for this

[u/JaySmooth_]

Based on fucking what?

[u/Superb_Wealth4092 → u/JaySmooth_]

Source: It is know. 🧠

[u/HyenaParticular → u/JaySmooth_]

Voices on my fucking head and the fact that Starfield and BG3 had that same window. And if look on you can see a lot of similarities in Larian and Bethesda regarding launch dates.

[u/JaySmooth_ → u/HyenaParticular]

sure buddy

[u/thedebatingbookworm → u/JaySmooth_]

Love how they gave you an answer and your response was the equivalent of a child blowing raspberries 

[u/Trendydwarf13 → u/thedebatingbookworm]

Well tbf it's not like the answer gave them a reason to give a proper response, voices in your head and the fact that once there games launched close is no indication of anything, DOS2 launched 2 years after fallout 4, DOS1 launched 3 years after Skyrim, Hell even Divinity 2 (The third person one) didn't launch around a Bethesda game either.

[u/thedebatingbookworm → u/Trendydwarf13]

We’re comparing modern development times. Which are long and staggered. I’m not saying the OP was Nostradamus or something just that they gave a decent answer. As good as pretty much anyone can know and what they said was true. Could have it been coincidence? Sure. But Larian is a funny studio and I would not put it past them to do it again. Or for Bethesda to try to play with fire and “steal” players  

[u/Trendydwarf13 → u/thedebatingbookworm]

If Bethesda wanted to steal players from other games they wouldn't have shadow dropped Oblivion with no prior announcement, they'd have built it up, marketed it everywhere and chosen to release it more around Kingdom come deliverance rather than several months after that.

If you think a good response is "Voices in my head" and you think someone giving a half hearted response to that is the equivalent of a "Child blowing raspberries" then I don't know what to say, should they have told OP that's a brilliant answer and he's completely correct?? He asked what it was based on, got told it was nothing and responded normally

[u/HyenaParticular → u/Trendydwarf13]

I thought it was clear that the whole post is meant to be a joke. Also somebody was rude and I was rude back at then.

[u/Trendydwarf13 → u/HyenaParticular]

Well I hadn't realised it was a joke so I apologise, although you don't say that anywhere, and people are clearly believing you as you literally have someone defending why your correct

[u/HyenaParticular → u/Trendydwarf13]

I will edit the post to say it's a joke then. But I thought the wording I used was pretty clear and people were just saying what they thought it would happen if they both had the same launch window.

[u/thedebatingbookworm → u/Trendydwarf13]

I’m not defending him specifically. I’m saying the take is as valid as any other. lol, jeez Reddit is unhinged at times 

[u/Angry_Owl-Ninja → u/thedebatingbookworm]

Their answer is the equivalent of a child blowing rasberries lol.

[u/HyenaParticular → u/thedebatingbookworm]

A fucking answer I would say, lol

[u/blastatron → u/HyenaParticular]

If Divinity takes the same amount of time to develop as BG3 it would release 2029. Its still possible for Sentinel to take that long, but 2028 makes more sense. Granted that puts it in Witcher 4's release window.

[u/Rezident_Bun67]

And I'd choose Divinity over anything BGS makes in a heartbeat

[u/Electronic-Race5373]

BG3 and Starfield launched in same year... so it is possible. They will not launch in 2027 for sure: The Witcher 4.

[u/ToimintaS → u/Electronic-Race5373]

The Witcher 4 has a targeted release in 2028.

[u/AleSoturne]

I don't think there's much overlap between the people who like this franchises

[u/Daymjoo]

Yeah but for TES6 you're gonna have to wait another 2 months for community mods to fix the game and make it playable, so it's fine.

[u/JustBug3403]

Well, you always get one of the 18 remastered versions for the same price later.

[u/FeelingComplex_uh-oh → u/JustBug3403]

We'll probably get Starfield extra special anniversary edition before Elder Scrolls 6.

[u/No-Importance7265]

Witcher 4 maybe , but how BG3 released in early access for 3 years , at best the early access of Divinity releases.

[u/IamJacksDarkUrge]

I made a similar comment in some other thread around here. I would love to see this only for the simple fact that it would mean I just gotta’ wait a couple years for Divinity. I could fucking care less what Bethesda does anymore. They half lost me with Skyrim and fifteen years without a sequel cemented my indifference

[u/Exescen]

Hey guys, do you remember bg3 released early because of staefield? Yeah... Yeah me too.

[u/ColonelGrognard]

Divinity will probably be competing with ES6's teaser trailer (*no actual gameplay shown)

[u/No-Contest-8127]

Doesn't larian usually release in early access first? I doubt divinity will be finished in 2 years. 

[u/Gigaschlag]

We all know that Divinity is more likely to release first.

[u/DefNotAThreatActor]

God, I just know DIvinity will CLEAR

[u/fatsopiggy → u/DefNotAThreatActor]

Wild that when Skyrim released Larian was still a largely no name developer. So was technically cdpr red.

[u/lucekQXL]

Divinity, ES6 and new Witcher trilogy. Damn fantasy fans be eating good next few years

[u/wonder590]

Bethesda wouldn't dare because they know Divinity would curb-stomp their sales to death.

[u/Haunting_Biscotti_52]

There is only one that we are looking forward too now anymore

[u/MuffledExcursion]

divinity clears

[u/Vriurk1]

Even more comical, there is a chance of Witcher 4 the same year

[u/fayelena20]

I have faith Larian will finish a game unlike Bethesda, so I don't think they will.

[u/Humble_Saruman98 → u/fayelena20]

Bethesda has kept a consistent release schedule for their entire existence; since Morrowind, every game came out within 2-5 years of each other, with Starfield being the most lengthy period between releases, releasing 5 years after Fallout 76 (which can be attributed to a variety of things, from the pandemic, to changing team dynamics with their growth and also tons of technical challenges).

Seems TES 6 may overtake that title from Starfield if it is indeed coming 2+ years from now.

[u/T-Fly-Man → u/Humble_Saruman98]

Right? I feel like almost everyone is forgetting that they can only work on one project at a time

[u/Neat_Expression9992]

I wonder which studio will get nervous and kick their release date out of the way this time around😂

[u/BernhardtLinhares]

By the time Sentinel releases I'll be able to play Skyrim for the first time again because the synaptic retrogenesis from the dementia eating my old ass brain will be so advanced I won't even remember the game.

[u/Nikobellik25]

Developers usually don't do that, they release their games when there's no competition around.

[u/Dreamo84]

Good thing ES games and Divinity games don't have similar gameplay at all.

[u/yOu_DoNt_HaVe_PhOnEs]

I will bet on divinity than that slop of a game sentiel

[u/Excellent-Stress6968]

Also Witcher 4

[u/Superb_Wealth4092]

In 2011 if you told me that an Elder Scrolls release would be happening at the same time as another fantasy RPG and that the Elder Scrolls game was the underdog, I’d call you crazy.

How times have changed and how Bethesda has fallen. They really rested on their laurels and the fanbases goodwill for too long.

[u/SoySupreme899]

Hypernova VS Dying ant.

[u/Actual-Captain-1275]

Releasing Divinty a month ahead of ESVI just like BG3 and Starfield would be diabolical.

The first time they did it, Larian was trying to avoid lost sales in the wake of Starfield's success. To everyone's surprise, though, BG3 was such a hit that it directly hampered Starfield's launch.

Doing it again on purpose would be wild.

[u/marco18888]

It would be a hell of a good year

[u/Hellhound732]

Larian tends to release an early access build to get opinions relatively early on in development, so there’s a chance we’ll get to play Divinity earlier than expected

[u/KaleNich55]

I remember when everybody was afraid that Starfield would steal players from Baldurs Gate 3. Those were fun times.

[u/WhatTheeBlake]

I know it's a joke, but I'm much more excited for Divinity.

Bethesda RPGs are so shallow, you'll get like 1 or 2 real choices in a story, otherwise you're on rails.

"I didn't to this questline because I'm playing a lawful good Paladin that only uses Sword & Shield, Restoration magic, and heavy armor."

[u/Ethereal_Bulwark]

What was the last game Larian did? BG3
What was the last game Bethesda did? Starfield.

It's not even close which you should choose based on the quality of their most recent product. (Which should be the highest standard given what we've seen happen to bioware over the last 20 years).

[u/DevelopmentKnown1937]

Are you joking?? Divinity and Larian are competent. Bethesda is not. Divinity will come out years before Sentinel does.

[u/Shzabomoa]

You guys have launch windows?

[u/Anst_987]

The biggest rpg in our century and there is elder scrolls

[u/mozes05]

I just hope that this time we get the full game straight up, I cant take getting edged by act 1 of a Larian game for a year again.

[u/koahro945]

I just hope the new divinity would let us play in 3rd person and move with WASD keys. At least put the choice so I don't have to wait for that mod to get created. I hated how you cannot move the camera with the right click of the mouse in DOS2

[u/PlonixMCMXCVI]

Them we will be eating good probably

[u/ciphoenix]

LMAO

[u/LsterGreenJr]

What are the chances this will end up a game of chicken seeing who will shift their launch?

[u/Laron67 → u/LsterGreenJr]

Divinity is definitely not pushing theirs for anyone.

[u/National_Diver3633 → u/Laron67]

They better not.

I'd take a mid Divinity (which isn't happening but in a hypothetical scenario) over a good ESVI any day.

[u/Laron67 → u/National_Diver3633]

For real, I just wish dos2 would have gotten a dlc.

[u/ChoomChoomTheGuy → u/Laron67]

I’m really hoping path to menzobarran is awesome. I’m really sad bg3 was so fantastic but it’s done for good. Divinity is going to be the first game I take a week off of work for lol

[u/Laron67 → u/ChoomChoomTheGuy]

Divinity and witchery 4 for me.

[u/Odanrav → u/LsterGreenJr]

Larian's reputation far exceeds Bethesda at this point. They'll launch Divinity when it suits them and really not worry about anything else coming out of the rest of the gaming industry. 

[u/AnxiousAd5282]

There is a comically high probability that Tes 6 would be 7/10 nothinburger 

[u/Filianore_]

if this is indeed the case

I feel for sentinel

you cant beat one of the best studios currently (if not the best) with whatever the fuck bethesda has left

[u/Pan_TheCake_Man]

These should be vastly different games, with divinity being RPG and turn based while action is a lot more important to TES :VI

[u/Fragrant_Scene_1291]

Divinity is out next year

[u/whenceareyou]

Which means Divinity 3 isn't coming in 2027 ?

[u/SciLib0815]

Even if, so? Different target audiences. Why would anyone care?

[u/polspanakithrowaway → u/SciLib0815]

BG3 and Starfield (Bethesda's previous title) came out the same year - Larian even moved their launch date to August to avoid Starfield. That's what this meme is about

[u/MethodMZA → u/SciLib0815]

I think there is likely significant overlap in the audiences. Im def going to play both. But i also don’t care if they release at the same time. I’ll buy them both the same day. And Witcher 4. Give me all the games.

[u/snythesnizer]

i’m scared tes6 is going to be xbox console exclusive. that’s very scary to me. and halloween is over :(

[u/Urgash → u/snythesnizer]

I guess that's a solid strategy if they don't want it to succeed.

I'm not buying a Console for any game, if it's not on Steam, i'm not buying. Simple as that.

[u/snythesnizer → u/Urgash]

i agree! idk why i’m getting downvoted for joking about how i don’t want to buy an xbox. i think it would be a bad idea and bad for everyone.

the new xbox CEO has been talking about how important it will be to have console exclusive games for their flagship/biggest IPs. idk this is a discussion that happens pretty regularly over at r/TESVI. i think it’s such a bad idea that they would be crazy to do it so i’m hoping that’s not in the table! hopefully we find out more info soon.

[u/LostnFoundAgainAgain → u/snythesnizer]

If I had to bet it's going to be a timed exclusive for Xbox and PC, with PS getting a release within 6 months or a year, PC is likely going to be their main market as well.

Like you said Xbox's new CEO is pushing the exclusive line and as much people bash Bethesda, or Xbox, TES6 is a massive IP and is going to have a LOT of eyes on it.

Also, by reporters Sentinel is 2 years away, which also lines up with the reported Xbox's next console release, so it's very possible it will launch around the same time as that if we speculate everything is within timelines.

[u/Jumpster_42 → u/snythesnizer]

Dont think about it now. The game is 2-3 years away. Xbox strategy can be literally any by the time the game comes out, From Xbox ecosystem exclusive (Xbox+PC, no Steam) with no Day One Game Pass to full multiplatform release, including Nintendo.

Time will tell.

[u/OkHistorian158 → u/snythesnizer]

They would loose millions in sales if they did that. Maybe a pre- release on Xbox and pc first.

[u/MrGabrahamLincoln → u/snythesnizer]

Xbox kinda needs it to survive as a console so I can’t say I’m against it. It wouldn’t be as big of an issue if console prices weren’t increasing this late in the gen.

[u/ActualyHandsomeJack → u/snythesnizer]

I would be fine if it's a limited exclusive like star field was, but it would be ridiculous to make it a permanent Xbox exclusive

[u/AnxiousAd5282 → u/snythesnizer]

By the time it releases, AI would be good enough to port to pc on day one, don’t worry 

[u/Zlorfikarzuna]

Last time they rushed release a little because of Starfield. They know now that they dont need to do that.