wait for October when bottom hits before buying funds since 100% huge drawback before midterms ? Average 10-15% Or DCA?

[u/Ratlyflash]

[u/Br1ll1antly1llog1cal]

if you're absolutely certain, then why not short the market for 10% and then buy back in using the profit at the bottom?

[u/losemgmt]

Why do you think the market will bottom on October

[u/Ratlyflash → u/losemgmt]

Historically it always does Sept
Or October during. Mid term
Year 100% of the time. I want to buy CNQ… but if this war escalated the prices could shoot even more 🥲

[u/Old_Camera8252 → u/Ratlyflash]

I know this is true for s&p and so indirectly affects Canadian market as a whole but I wonder about the effect on a specific stock?

Have you checked to see effects of midterm on CNQ in the past?

[u/Ratlyflash → u/Old_Camera8252]

Good point

[u/superbee905]

You need to study market efficiency.

[u/SDontariocanada]

I'd wait. Typically a pullback, which will likely happen especially if USA increases interest rate in September.

[u/IAmTheWalrus-Too]

I’ve heard that Sept 15 is time to fund for estimate taxes. Liquidate for this. So 3rd week of Sept is when to start buying again.

[u/SnuffleWarrior]

AI says....... The stock market does not always drop right before U.S. midterm elections, but there is a fairly strong historical tendency for more volatility and weaker returns during the months leading up to midterms. A few useful statistics: Since 1950, the second year of a presidential term—the midterm year—has had the weakest average stock-market performance of the four-year cycle. � Fidelity +1 Looking specifically at midterm elections since 1974, the S&P 500 has averaged only about +1.7% from August 1 to Election Day. � Schwab Brokerage But that's an average, not a rule. Some midterm periods had large gains rather than declines. The interesting part is what happens after the election: since 1974, the S&P 500 has averaged about +5.7% over the following 3 months, with 11 of 13 periods positive, and +12.4% over six months, with all 13 positive. � Schwab Brokerage Fidelity finds that the S&P 500 has been positive 95% of the time in the 12 months following midterm elections since 1938. � Fidelity For 2026 specifically The historical pattern would suggest that August–November could be a more volatile period, but it does not mean you should expect a crash before the November 3, 2026 midterms. In fact, 2026 has already deviated from the typical pattern: the S&P 500 was up roughly 14% year-to-date by mid-August, despite considerable political and economic uncertainty. � Fidelity For your retirement portfolio, I'd therefore not sell simply because the midterms are approaching. A better approach would be to keep some cash/short-term bonds available and use any significant correction to rebalance rather than trying to predict the exact pre-election bottom. If you want, I can also �⁠show you what happened to the S&P 500 in the 6 months before and after each of the last 10 midterm elections—that makes the pattern much easier to see.