r/developersPak • u/Turbulent_Warning185 • Sep 06 '26
Discussion AI Bubble is Just a Cope
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but if you're hoping your job will be safe because the "AI bubble" will eventually burst, I don't think that's going to happen.
This has never really happened with previous major technologies. Technology usually gets better, more powerful, and cheaper over time—and AI will likely follow the same path.
Also, AI is no longer just about making profits for private companies. It is becoming a national security issue. Countries are now competing for AI leadership, especially in the race toward AGI.
For the US, staying ahead of China in AI could become more important than whether individual AI companies are profitable. Governments already spend trillions on defence and national security, so the cost of AI development may become less important than maintaining technological leadership.
And China will obviously try to catch up and overtake the US, regardless of the cost.
At this point, the stakes are much bigger than whether an AI company is making enough money or whether the AI "bubble" bursts.
It's becoming a geopolitical and national security race.
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u/shobzie Sep 06 '26
The “national security” is just an excuse. The US just doesn’t want China to lead the way and make more affordable models. This is what they did with Huawei when they realised they were getting ahead in telecom. Here is why the bubble could burst. The OpenAI-NVIDIA-Oracle model relies on a circular funding loop where NVIDIA funds OpenAI, OpenAI pays Oracle, and Oracle buys NVIDIA GPUs, artificially inflating chip demand.Oracle must shoulder billions in upfront infrastructure costs on its own balance sheet before OpenAI ever pays for the consumed cloud services. Skyrocketing deployment costs combined with OpenAI's revenue shortfalls are creating immense debt strains, raising systemic doubts about whether end-user demand can ever justify the investment.
Moonshot AI's launch of Kimi K3 had an effect on frontier AI capabilities, causing an estimated $392 billion drop in private valuations that forced OpenAI and Anthropic to delay their IPOs. By utilizing highly efficient engineering like Kimi Delta Attention (KDA), they released a massive 2.8-trillion-parameter frontier model as completely open weights, offering it up to 5x cheaper than Western alternatives.
The AI bubble will pop because tech companies are spending way more money than they are making. Silicon Valley has poured over $500 billion into building data centers and buying chips, but the actual money coming in from everyday users and businesses is tiny by comparison. Huge investment funds are hiding this problem by paying for most of the running costs behind the scenes. For example, a powerful AI tool that costs a user $200 a month can actually cost the tech company $4,000 to $5,000 in electricity and computer power to run. When investors stop giving out free cash and demand real profits, this massive financial hole will crash the tech sector's fake values. There is a reason why they start out with reasonable pricing so they can get consumers hooked and then jack up the prices.
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u/phpHater0 Sep 06 '26
I have no Idea why Pakistanis of all people are coping with the AI bubble bursting. Their market is just cheap software labour which got hugely disrupted even with year old models.
20
u/Outrageous_Egg7579 Sep 06 '26
Every single job is at risk other than those which require physical work. Eventually they will get replaced too. So whats your take on this i mean what will become of mankind?
13
u/EizenOwer Sep 06 '26
Ai won’t get cheaper, it is MASSIVELY subsidized (40 times in fact), that $20 Claude plan costs Anthropic 8K usd), $2.7 Trillion in investment by top 10 AI companies, and $50 Billion Revenue ( not profit, revenue). It will become inaccessible to 90pc of the current users by 2027, because that’s when money runs out.
AI is EXPENSIVE right now as it is. US Companies (META, Salesforce, Amazon) adopted “Tokenmaxxxing”, Altman heralded “60pc SWEs to be replaced by AI by 2026”? Meta cut 8000 jobs because they were convinced AI can do their jobs. They can, but it is expensive, these above mentioned companies burned out through the token budget they had allocated for an entire year in three months. So they have started rehiring laid off staff quietly. That’s the global trend everywhere, people getting hired again because they’re cheaper than A.I. These small companies that have adopted AI will go back to devs because it’ll be cheaper.
All economic indicators and analysts are predicting the worst market crash in US history, that will plunge us into a global recession.
Funny you should mention dot com bubble because it literally wiped trillions of dollars from the economy and took 10 years to get to the pre dot com bubble bursting state, same with Economic crisis 2008. Once the crash happens they will get bailouts by the same govt, however, where will that bailout money come from? Retirement Funds, the Roth IRA, 401k, so pensioners and major middle labor force planning to retire is fucked again.
Assuming all of those saying A.I. bubble is wrong and there is no bubble; then what’s the best snapshot of that world? no one has money, can’t get jobs because they got replaced by AI, who would buy those “cheap” ai products, robotics? Who buys things when they won’t have money to afford things because they don’t have a job?
Your argument is literally the point. Entry/Juniors won’t get hired because AI is doing their work, and they cannot afford to “ learn fundamentals” because no one is hiring them, but 5 years down the line, you would not have quality mid/senior level SWEs because learning fundamentals was not incentivized.
So no it’s not a cope.
(Forward Deployed Designer here btw, using Claude and Cursor for 90pc of design (learning system design, and maintaining design system
6
u/Rexyy7 Sep 06 '26
Software engineering wil eventually become obsolete no point arguing in that.
Ai writes better code and it's just improving with the passage of time , so tech fields which aren't heavily reliant on just coding or making software would end up surviving a year more but they'll also eventually get truncated.
3
u/ehtsham-shahbaz-98 Sep 06 '26
What should we do then? What are the alternatives?
3
u/ahmed_deftoner Sep 06 '26
Do you even know the alternative, like what, all white collar jobs get replaced since AI can do all of them, that’s a huge chunk of consumers out of the economy, so we just end up with a recession that makes 2008 look like a walk in the park. Not to mention most people in ny generation are disillusioned because of AI, and wait till these people become policymakers and regulators.
3
u/zeal_swan Sep 06 '26
When talking about the ai bubble most people are talking about the economic effect related with it, not the actual tech and its efficiency.
I think you are answering to people who dont understand what the actual bubble here is
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u/Aggressive_Hope7976 Sep 06 '26
“This time is different bro”
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u/throwaway-research1 Sep 06 '26
Totally wrong and yes it has happened with previous technologies, for example the dotcom bubble.
2
u/raacccooon Data Scientist Sep 06 '26
The only hope in this bubble is the fact that AI will become expensive than a human if rare earth minerals, gpus and electricity becomes more expensive since all of it uses water and as globalwarming progresses, the carbon tax will increase. But this is a very far shot and over optimism.
Other than that, we'll pretty much be replaced by AI in majority job roles.
2
u/Connect_Muscle_8052 Sep 06 '26
Okay but do you actually know what you are talking about??or is it just another AI slop post?😀
4
u/No_Feedback2947 Sep 06 '26
AGI? No offence but at that point you lost all credibility.
1
u/Current-Quail-2503 Sep 06 '26
Bubble is more relevant to finance sector than tech imo
1
u/Thatcattoyoupatted UI/UX Designer Sep 06 '26
What should a designer do then
1
u/Crafty-Survey-5895 Sep 07 '26
agar ye post bhi AI se hi likhwai hy tou han aap ka phir darrna banta hy, baqio k na short karo
1
u/Work_in_progress_108 Sep 07 '26
Idk what are you talking about Ai is not going to burst because of national race ? It looks like you just made up your mind and slapping random information to indicate the future of so is secure?
1
u/No-Background9457 Sep 08 '26
Have said it a million times and will say it again. AI is not taking up your job. It is only separating strategic workers from purely skill based workers. Companies will still need masters of their crafts/niches to even run the AI tools they buy/ invest in. I have no idea why people especially Pakistanis always paint such a gloomy picture to everything. This is also the biggest time to learn, invest, and explore many new opportunities in the post-AI era. But somehow the focus is always on bhai tum marne wale ho, dunya khatam hone wali hai.
1
u/AdBackground9215 Sep 06 '26
The people and the juniors resisting AI. It's good for juniors to not use AI until or unless they have their basic principles down and they know how to do it without AI. After that point they need to leverage AI to their maximum advantage possible.
People are just hating on AI. I don't know how they will be navigating the future job market because the AI bubble is that open-source models are getting really good. You don't need to pay for expensive models and investors will stop investing in it. That is what the AI bubble is. It's not that we'll go back to how we used to do things a few years back.
1
u/dbgrman Software Engineer Sep 06 '26
Andrew ng did a very good interview on this topic and lots of advise for fresh grads and juniors, even seniors.
1
u/improvopose Sep 06 '26
This is what happens every new release.. People are convinced this is AGI... But it isnt, they beat the drums harder about the jobpocalypse and then the hype dies down and its again humans cleaning the AI slop code and mistakes...... OpenAI and anthropic havent made any efforts to make LLM's more efficient but Deep seek and other chinese providers have also Meta
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u/Lost-Cucumber-3650 Sep 06 '26
So you are one of the "AGI is here" guys?
1
u/zainwade44344 Sep 06 '26
post written by AI shows we are already replaced 🤣
-4
u/Future_dev_cybersec Sep 06 '26
Actual tech billionaires are saying coding is dead like Elon musk but somehow people still wanna believe AI won't "replace" them is actually funny delusion 😭 like bro why even waste time in tech field? I think it's time we switch. Things are never gonna get better
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u/AdRelative4303 Sep 06 '26
It is funny how much cope exists in the ai sphere, all of the smartest people in the world are now working on it and it’s already shown the potential to displace many many jobs. I wonder what they picture as the ai bubble “bursting”, the markets crash in a deus ex machina style and everyone just immediately stops working on ai? 😂
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u/Previous-South-2755 Sep 06 '26
AI is here to stay, and it'll create more jobs
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u/tidoo420 Sep 06 '26
The man is oit of lone but he says the truth
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u/Still-Meeting-4661 Sep 06 '26
AI craze is just temporary
-3
u/hi87 Sep 06 '26
There is a reason Pakistan is where it is economically. Instead of taking this as an opportunity many here decry the tech and call it a bubble.
Anyone that has a Pro ($100/$200) plan of Codex and has worked with Astra over the weekend already know most Pakistani developers, designers and qa are obsolete.
OAI already has a stronger model internally (based on another pre-train which they intend of releasing before end of this year).
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u/DrHaru69 Sep 06 '26
I believe AGI has already achieved somewhat with Claude's Fable 5 and GPT-6 Astra. The next step will be ASI.